tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8434369190746987531.post3906734618284206875..comments2023-11-05T23:07:01.842+11:00Comments on Grog's Gamut: When the Levy BreaksGreg Jerichohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04956402439870441083noreply@blogger.comBlogger21125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8434369190746987531.post-6414099627777063062011-01-30T17:32:46.703+11:002011-01-30T17:32:46.703+11:00This comment has been removed by the author.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08128949466734005296noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8434369190746987531.post-58308984662904851722011-01-29T10:28:32.491+11:002011-01-29T10:28:32.491+11:00morewest - no that's wrong. The contingency fu...morewest - no that's wrong. The contingency fund is not for emergencies in the flood sense. It is for overspends in demand driven programs such as medicare and even drought relief assistance.Greg Jerichohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04956402439870441083noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8434369190746987531.post-14551463639285767442011-01-27T16:53:48.913+11:002011-01-27T16:53:48.913+11:00My understanding is that the current budget contai...My understanding is that the current budget contains a contingency of $5 billion for just such a disaster as the eastern states floods. Moreover, in the forward estimates another $11 billion was allocated for 2011-12.<br /><br />So there seems to be absolutely no budgetary need for a levy. The money is already in a fiscal hollow log so the floods would not have affected the return to surplus by either a dollar or nanosecond.<br /><br />However, there is another potentially large Damocles Sword hanging over the Federal Government as a result of the floods. Reconstruction will give the economy a very significant boost at a time when other sectors of the economy, particularly mining, are also gathering pace. Together both factors threaten to blow out the still lowish interest rates.<br /><br />As one affect of the levy will be to dampen demand, it may be that Cabinet has judged the political hit from the levy will be less than from higher interest rates.morewestnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8434369190746987531.post-73914878548044845942011-01-27T12:10:55.562+11:002011-01-27T12:10:55.562+11:00In addition to the modest levy that will be impose...In addition to the modest levy that will be imposed why on earth don't we tap the sacrosanct Future Fund which was supposedly set aside to provide for the future requirements for superannuation of public servants (sorry Grog) and politicians? There are billions in there as well as still a healthy chunk of Telstra shares which could be utilised now and offset from future surpluses. Although David Murry and the gormless one (now known as AC/PC) will shriek at the thought of "their" plaything being used for anything but bolstering the sharetrading activities of big money it is "spare" money in the sense that as a chunk of taxpayers funds paid in advance there should be some redraw facility.Alistair Baillieu-McEwannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8434369190746987531.post-34045337266945808012011-01-27T10:45:31.826+11:002011-01-27T10:45:31.826+11:00Our Mates Ain't Heavy. We'll Take A Levy!...<b>Our Mates Ain't Heavy. We'll Take A Levy!</b> <br /><br />Why is 'The Australian' so kind <br />To Abbott’s not so little mate? <br />Why listen when he feels inclined <br />To spread bad news and speculate <br />On anything that comes to mind <br />To stir the pot and fester hate? <br /><br />Why, even on Australia Day, <br />Let Hockey throw political mud? <br />I thought it was the Aussie way <br />To fight as one through fire and flood. <br />Let's read what Julia has to say! <br />Help her to stir the nation’s blood! <br /><br />That paper’s name is a call to arms! <br />Their masthead's a declaration <br />They'll fight anything that harms <br />The heart of our young nation! <br />Reporting truth with less alarms <br />Would help all Oz. Perhaps too - their circulation.Patricia WAnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8434369190746987531.post-14346461997795823022011-01-26T09:42:01.823+11:002011-01-26T09:42:01.823+11:00Susan, you're right, I'm not completely ag...Susan, you're right, I'm not completely against a levy at all. I'm not even against a flood levy. I'm just against a flood levy if the whole reason for it is to ensure the budget is in surplus in 2012-13.Greg Jerichohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04956402439870441083noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8434369190746987531.post-29179612195808943962011-01-25T22:17:18.722+11:002011-01-25T22:17:18.722+11:00Grog,
You're starting to sound like Bern...Grog,<br /> You're starting to sound like Bernard Keane...'Julia Gillard is bad because she's not Paul Keating in a skirt. She just needs to grow a pair.' Oi vey!<br /> Now, think about things logically.<br />The first question out of the box by the ferals in the Press Gallery was, "Are you still going to be able to bring the Budget back into Surplus by 2012/13?" Now, you may so it just takes 'Leadership' to put them back in their box. I say, 'Piffle'. If she had said the Budget was going back into Deficit to pay for the Flood Reconstruction, they would have been all over her like a rash and 100 point banner headlines would have blared from the front pages, as well as the opportunistic Opposition would have not been able to believe their political luck.<br /> It's real politik. Not idealistic blogging. And JG is smart enough not to get out the shovel and start digging a hole for herself like that.Hillbilly Skeletonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8434369190746987531.post-60089195540226005242011-01-25T18:20:11.249+11:002011-01-25T18:20:11.249+11:00The whole federal government inability to communic...The whole federal government inability to communicate thing is so bad I have having to read the newspapers behind the sofa.<br /><br />On an almost completely unrelated topic, but asking any passing fonts of wisdom, will the rest of the country be able to watch the NSW election night coverage live on any of the new abc channels? There's so little Australian comedy out there that it seems mean to stop the rest of us...Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14408439007099104739noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8434369190746987531.post-29027781962376664312011-01-25T18:09:52.780+11:002011-01-25T18:09:52.780+11:00I well remember during the 2007 campaign that the ...I well remember during the 2007 campaign that the Libs were stirring up the gun nuts with the claim "If Rudd is elected he will take away your guns." I asked the complainants what the Liberal policy was, and they invariably replied, "no gun control at all." Then I would carefully explain to them that it was Howard, a Liberal Prime Minister who had introduced the current regulations which they deplored so heartily, and that Labor had no plans to change those laws. Their confusion was something to behold. Sorry if this is off-topic, but it always made my day :)Chris Grealynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8434369190746987531.post-35503970359622410892011-01-25T17:46:12.774+11:002011-01-25T17:46:12.774+11:00Bud get Sur plus Bud get Sur plus Bud get Sur plus...Bud get Sur plus Bud get Sur plus Bud get Sur plus. It was like constant drum beat tattooed on our brain. I know perfectly reasonable people who freak out when they talk about the lack of a budget surplus yet when I ask why they believe it is so important, they really don't have an answer other than the few who argue it saved us from the CFC. I think the constant referencing of the budget surplus was like a form of brain washing. Look, enconomy good, budget surplus, good. Full stop. End of explanation and people lapped it up hook, line and sinker without even considering the other reasons the economy seemed good. I could sell my house and put the money in the bank. Boy, I'd look rich but what would happen to my standard of living, my health, my safety and my sanity?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8434369190746987531.post-39660434692779930102011-01-25T12:15:17.349+11:002011-01-25T12:15:17.349+11:00Economic literacy amongst our leaders in this coun...Economic literacy amongst our leaders in this country in woeful.<br /><br />"... that's the right time to be having a Budget surplus and saving for the future."<br /><br />This is just so wrong it's tragic. A budget surplus for a Government that is the sole issuer of the currency is not, in any way, saving for the future. It is, in fact, destroying real private financial assets right now.<br /><br />Bill Mitchell has a great post on the real economics behind this issue: "Not the time to be cutting spending or raising taxes" http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=13179@AndySHastingsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8434369190746987531.post-15315695551155363252011-01-25T11:31:41.481+11:002011-01-25T11:31:41.481+11:00Great post Grog.
There's one aspect that I ...Great post Grog. <br /><br />There's one aspect that I might disagree with though.<br /><br />You've suggested "If she gets the budget back into surplus with a levy, she’ll find no one really gives a damn, because the levy will get the credit not anything she has done (in effect taxpayers will think they paid for the surplus – Howard got credit for the surplus because people didn’t feel like they had had to sacrifice to get it – so they’ll be no joy for the ALP at all)."<br /><br />I think she would get credit for the levy, if it's small enough to be relatively painless.<br /><br />I think that she would be looking good in the scenario where a levy is imposed - a modest one, so no-one feels really aggrieved - and the budget also ends up in surplus (which people seem to think is good).<br /><br />Then Gillard can claim "we're still in surplus and the economy is strong, even though we had the floods. Labor took the tough decision for the good of the economy and the coutry. We pulled together and came out stronger. By contrast, the Coalition would have sat on its hands again - like it did during the GFC - and we would have been worse off. The Coalition talks tough about economic management, but all they do is cut things and sell things. Labor builds things and Australia gets stronger."<br /><br />I think this line would be very powerful - if the numbers line up.Airefuegonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8434369190746987531.post-4276942906525071302011-01-25T10:23:35.840+11:002011-01-25T10:23:35.840+11:00Terrific discussion of the issues. I am so frustr...Terrific discussion of the issues. I am so frustrated that we cannot have a sensible debate on this: we face additional unforeseen and unavoidable costs as a result of the floods; this can be funded by some combination of increased borrowing, reduced spending on other things and increased taxation; there will be different impacts on the economy and on individuals depending upon the choices made; let's have a think about what might work best.<br /><br />Graeme, I don't think Grog was suggesting that levys are bad things per se. Rather, he was highlighting Abbott's blatant hypocrisy on the issue.<br /><br />By the way, there was another Howard levy - the superannuation surcharge, which Costello, when scrapping it, retrospectively defined as a temporary levy to deal with the budget deficit.Susannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8434369190746987531.post-37586806455611308112011-01-25T08:56:53.820+11:002011-01-25T08:56:53.820+11:00superb effort. Spot on with the Gillard critique b...superb effort. Spot on with the Gillard critique balancing the Abbott critique, both well deserved. Truth of the matter being that while politicians continue to feed pap to the electorate, the voters will continue to lap it up. We have no statesmen/women as elected representatives, we have only self-serving politicians. Dare I say it, we the people need to be taking back our democracy.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14346317032347030216noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8434369190746987531.post-82409911010066748582011-01-25T08:32:08.974+11:002011-01-25T08:32:08.974+11:00Yet again, we see Labor losing opportunities becau...Yet again, we see Labor losing opportunities because they are scared to the point of paralysis of John Howard.Dermott Bananahttp://dermottbanana.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8434369190746987531.post-80079526045281432642011-01-25T08:00:08.011+11:002011-01-25T08:00:08.011+11:00'And yes I know she would be “using the floods...'And yes I know she would be “using the floods”, but I look around and I see Abbott having no such concerns, and I see him getting zero criticism from the media.'<br /><br />Well, yes, but there's an inherent flaw in your reasoning here, as you've pointed out yourself in the post. What's media sauce for the Abbott gander will be media poison for the Julia ... um ...Kerryn Goldsworthyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11270814460793882309noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8434369190746987531.post-51141983141961593912011-01-24T23:18:15.471+11:002011-01-24T23:18:15.471+11:00Mr Gamut. I half agree. But it is odd that you p...Mr Gamut. I half agree. But it is odd that you praise Howard on the gun buy back yet forget ... he did it with a levy! (Extra Medicare levy). <br /><br />Also, the fiscal argument would surely lead to an assumption that Queensland should go into heavy deficit and then tax its way out of that in a year or two. After all its a geographically inherently QLD risk/event. But vertical fiscal imbalance makes that unreasonable, and the fact that QLD is already economically behind the eight ball renders it unlikely. A levy spreads the pain nationwide. a deficit does too, but spreads the pain temporally as well; politically, being hypothecated, it is easier to sell than a tax rise some time hence. I'm not sure we should be borrowing from the future for present clean ups, given that serious natural disasters and extreme weather are something not uncommon and likely to grow commoner.Graemenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8434369190746987531.post-55689586008842718672011-01-24T22:46:57.372+11:002011-01-24T22:46:57.372+11:00They're still looking for bodies in Qld. Peopl...They're still looking for bodies in Qld. People in towns in Victoria are currently scrambling to try and build up defences for themselves against a mass of water that is just not even comprehensible. Others are being told their efforts were in vain and they need to get out. Others have been isolated in their towns for over a week because they stayed to dig up the roads in and out of town to use as new levees, or just to work 10 hours a day lugging sandbags. Still others are just wondering how on earth they can possibly clean up the mess left behind.<br /><br />Meanwhile, Abbott is arguing that governments should spend less, and Gillard is defending such an abstract fucking concept as a surplus budget 2 years from now, like that matters to <i>anyone</i> right now.<br /><br />BahUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16731698589180237330noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8434369190746987531.post-65931470594209135312011-01-24T22:25:04.693+11:002011-01-24T22:25:04.693+11:00Sadly we are seem to be passed the time of great l...Sadly we are seem to be passed the time of great leaders...<br /><br />Even Kevin, with the amazing sorry speech rolled over on climate change.. and got rolled in the process.<br /><br />Tony is hell bent on saying taxes are bad... drugs are bad... NBN is bad... everthing is bad.<br /><br />Leaders of bothsides are to busy looking for the soundbite and not for the big picture.<br /><br />It is a pity, because there are opportunities to think large. Like the NBN, which should be an easy sell for the Govt, yet, they can't even get that message right.<br /><br />The floods do represent an opportunity, but the soundbite will be the only winner.Wolfcathttp://www.wolfcat.com.au/randomrants/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8434369190746987531.post-45499508667889521412011-01-24T22:21:21.065+11:002011-01-24T22:21:21.065+11:00Wow. You should be Julia's speech writer.
The...Wow. You should be Julia's speech writer.<br /><br />The ALP needs to stop being afraid. If Julia said the deficit was unimportant in light of recent events, you know Abbott would have been all over that. So she maintains her promise of an unnecessary surplus to keep the Coalition off her back. It's a weak, defensive strategy. As you said, she needs to stop worrying about the deficit and focus on rebuilding Queensland and the necessary advancement of Australia's infrastructure.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09700371897503134123noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8434369190746987531.post-34070031464181587032011-01-24T21:51:43.226+11:002011-01-24T21:51:43.226+11:00Great post, Grogs. Again. You're saying what a...Great post, Grogs. Again. You're saying what a lot of people are thinking about Julia. I wonder when she will step up to become a real leader of stature. People are desperate for her to drop the spin.<br /><br />I keep waiting. And I keep voting Labor of course...whilst thinking "if only she.....JudgeGhttp://www.thebestjudge.comnoreply@blogger.com