tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8434369190746987531.post9093189918937069907..comments2023-11-05T23:07:01.842+11:00Comments on Grog's Gamut: Unemployment goes down! Oh Misery…Greg Jerichohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04956402439870441083noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8434369190746987531.post-17545269646658193412010-07-12T20:44:28.638+10:002010-07-12T20:44:28.638+10:00Excellent trekking through the RBA data Grog, I th...Excellent trekking through the RBA data Grog, I think the misery index is under utilised by the media in this day and age.<br /><br />You have to wonder why with so much greater access to data and knowledge these days the MSM seems to be getting further into dumbing down everythingSMhttp://sminney.posterous.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8434369190746987531.post-11315311283246982722010-07-10T10:07:17.229+10:002010-07-10T10:07:17.229+10:00L - yes it does - I think I was trying to say that...L - yes it does - I think I was trying to say that.<br /><br />Yes deflation, such a wonderful thing that! We actually did have deflaiton in the 90s In 1997 the annual inflaiton rate was -0.3% (unemployment at the time was 8.1%).<br /><br />Incidentally since 1990 inflation has only ever been higher than unemployment in the last quarter of 2008. It was always higher as a rule from 1978 to 1990Greg Jerichohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04956402439870441083noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8434369190746987531.post-26487291593831942692010-07-09T20:31:01.290+10:002010-07-09T20:31:01.290+10:00A good thing to look at is the participation rate ...<i>A good thing to look at is the participation rate – that is the actual percentage of adults in the population who are working (as opposed to the percentage of those looking for work).</i><br /><br />Doesn't the ABS participation rate include both the population who are working and also the unemployed people who are looking for work?<br /><br /><i>Check out that trend line!! If we assume that will continue by around 2025 we’ll have 0% unemployment and 0% inflation!</i><br /><br />Or 5% unemployment and 5% deflation! Now that would be fun. Everything gets cheaper!<br /><br />Also, is Joe Hockey really disappointed that the new jobs being created are in areas other than retail and hospitality? Surely those are two of the most worthless sectors of the economy.Lnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8434369190746987531.post-75745764888295616902010-07-09T18:50:52.938+10:002010-07-09T18:50:52.938+10:00Hi Grog, I love historical graphs too :).
It is q...Hi Grog, I love historical graphs too :).<br /><br />It is quite clear to see that although Australia was hit particularly hard in the early 90s recession, we have done well in the late 00s recession. Elevated unemployment rates which occur during recessions are equivalent to deep cuts scarring the labour market and the economy as a whole. Our long expansion since the early 90s recession in many way is having a similar effect as annealing a piece of steel resulting in a piece free of defects and rather ductile.<br /><br />I think particularly important areas are improving participation, reducing labour underutilisation and underemployment.Rationalisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16361274433657090420noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8434369190746987531.post-82061848379068042082010-07-09T17:49:42.395+10:002010-07-09T17:49:42.395+10:00Anon - I would love to do that, but the unemployme...Anon - I would love to do that, but the unemployment figures I have only go back to 1978 (I'm using the RBA chart packs). <br /><br />The ABS no doubt has older figures, but I can't work out their site to find them!Greg Jerichohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04956402439870441083noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8434369190746987531.post-47216378126806441612010-07-09T13:35:34.947+10:002010-07-09T13:35:34.947+10:00Might also be interesting to compare the unemploym...Might also be interesting to compare the unemployment rate to inflation in the 1970s (last 10 years might seem a long time, but it may also be atypical of what we may expect in the future, particularly given huge increases in money base overseas), during which time unemployment and inflation were both at very elevated levels. LaocoonAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8434369190746987531.post-82654249907709334082010-07-09T12:08:03.081+10:002010-07-09T12:08:03.081+10:00Did you see Joe Hockey's twitter post on the f...Did you see Joe Hockey's twitter post on the figures:<br /> <i>RBA will be very anxious about strong job creation figures and impact on inflation. Where are these jobs-retail and hospitality appear flat. <br />about 15 hours ago via web </i><br /><br />So either he doesn't believe the figures <b>or</b> unemployment is bad because it creates inflationary pressure and may cause rates to rise. I suspect people wopuld prefer to have a job to enable them to pay their mortgage and higher bills than lower rates and bills but no money to pay . And this bloke is the alternate Treasurer - FMD.Dave55noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8434369190746987531.post-47933094144501875622010-07-08T22:32:41.047+10:002010-07-08T22:32:41.047+10:00Of course! The GST!! (smacks head). For some reaso...Of course! The GST!! (smacks head). For some reason I was thinking it came in earlier, but you are quite right.Greg Jerichohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04956402439870441083noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8434369190746987531.post-49657229736049606952010-07-08T22:27:58.186+10:002010-07-08T22:27:58.186+10:00"I’ve also used the underlying rate of infla..."I’ve also used the underlying rate of inflation here rather than the more volatile CPI (and no I don’t know why it jumped up 3% in September 2000, and then went down in June 2001 – anyone know?)"<br /><br />The GST caused a spike in the CPI due to people purchasing things that were due to become more expensive under the new tax system. Once it went into effect, that dramatic fall occurred, resulting in a quarter of negative growth for the economy.GhostWhoVoteshttps://twitter.com/GhostWhoVotesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8434369190746987531.post-1580605000238824392010-07-08T22:15:47.037+10:002010-07-08T22:15:47.037+10:00You have fucking excelled yourself this time, Grog...You have fucking excelled yourself this time, Grogs. Feeding in to the misery is the politics of fear.Both sides get the scaries on<br /><br />In times of full employment (and yes that's what 5% is) our constant cowering keeps us all in check. Along with fear of unemployment is fear of no pay rises, of productivity links that don't link come award renegotiation.<br /><br />We are just scared. And we need not be. But that requires education. That's what you are doing with each post. ThanksDarryl Snownoreply@blogger.com