tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-84343691907469875312024-03-06T15:20:12.146+11:00Grog's GamutRunning the gamut of emotions from A to BGreg Jerichohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04956402439870441083noreply@blogger.comBlogger862125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8434369190746987531.post-85752152259736561612018-01-30T17:10:00.001+11:002018-01-31T10:15:09.108+11:00Australian Open 2018 - Federer wins (stop me if you've heard this before)A tournament that signaled the start of a new era in men's tennis!<br />
<br />
How wonderful was it to see a new champion? Grigor Dimitrov, having beaten Dominic Thiem in the quarter finals took advantage of the injuries to Rafa Nadal, Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic by beating American Jack Sock who was having a great run, in the semis, before then defeating David Goffin, who himself had upset 19 times grand slam champion Roger Federer in the semi finals, to take the title.<br />
<br />
That is how it could have gone - for that is how the ATP Tour finals in London went at the end of last year - a tournament that could have signaled that finally the lost generation of men's tennis players was taking over.<br />
<br />
But no.<br />
<br />
He won. Again.<br />
<br />
Roger Federer, in a shock to no one except his obsessed fans, who despite his having won 19 grand slam titles previously, always think he is just a few absent minded service games away from losing every match, won the Australian Open title and reached 20 grand slam titles.<br />
<br />
It is a stunning number of titles. Only Serena Williams and Steffi Graf remain ahead of him among Open Era tennis players with 23 and 22, and Nadal is now again 4 titles behind him among the men.<br />
<br />
Perhaps the most stunning aspect about it is how by-the-numbers it felt.<br />
<br />
To be honest, up till the first set of the final, I didn't even think Federer played all that well.<br />
<br />
He was solid against Gasquet in the 4th round and against Berdych in the QF, but no more than that. The semi final was literally not a contest due to Chung's blisters.<br />
<br />
The reality was he didn't need to be any better than solid. First gear was enough, with the occasional 2nd gear shift to get a break.<br />
<br />
Last year however, he was astonishing against Berdych in the 3rd round - perhaps the best he has ever played; he was solid against Misha Zverev in the QF, but in the 4th round, SF and Final he had to bring out every weapon he had to beat Nishikori, Wawrinka and Nadal in 5 sets each.<br />
<br />
This year until the final against Cilic - a worthy finalist in any year - his progress was rather dull... indeed the men's tournament was pretty dreary.<br />
<br />
There was a lot of raving about the Kyrgios-Dimitrov 4th round match, but I thought it a match between two guys who don't know what to do with all the shot-making ability they have. It was entertaining in patches, but mostly it was so because both seemed equally fragile when getting in a winning position.<br />
<br />
Equally the Chung-Djokovic match was absolutely raved about like it was some classic, when for me the first set especially might have been some of the worst tennis I've seen played. Djokovic was clearly barely fit, his serve was awful - he double faulted 7 times! - and yet even though he was well below his best he was able to nearly win the first set despite having been down 4-0 with 2 breaks.<br />
<br />
Ugh.<br />
<br />
None of this really matters, nor even diminishes Federer's achievement - you can only beat who is on the other side of the net - but I think it highlights a big problem with men's tennis at the moment.<br />
<br />
The depth of men's tennis is very shallow at the moment, and the problem is being covered by popularity and brilliance of Federer and Nadal.<br />
<br />
First some graphs.<br />
<br />
The age one first because it is rather bonkers.<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbNIWnSUHmgDBrOzBxyW89jqXGrqc8r_8EujFi4THhDzvmNL-yac8wVjJx0yzhP6bQDy37RyoUvATvN-NV70t3Ehyphenhyphen87dThDx0MQP_czfOIIH7EgiLxeuyoinRzNMyVZHdXRd_mkHBxGPKC/s1600/Aged.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="571" data-original-width="1040" height="351" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbNIWnSUHmgDBrOzBxyW89jqXGrqc8r_8EujFi4THhDzvmNL-yac8wVjJx0yzhP6bQDy37RyoUvATvN-NV70t3Ehyphenhyphen87dThDx0MQP_czfOIIH7EgiLxeuyoinRzNMyVZHdXRd_mkHBxGPKC/s640/Aged.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
Had Federer remained on 17 it would have made sense. Winning after you hit 30 is not really the done thing. Mostly you compete, keep the older fans entertained, have a couple good runs to a semi-final, maybe a final, and then if you are very lucky you win one, and then you retire.<br />
<br />
When Federer won the Wimbledon title in 2012 it had already been 2 and half years since his last slam title. Now during that "drought" he did make every quarter final and reached 5 semi-finals and one final, but it was long enough to think, yep, this was his final one. Well done Roger, off you go, enjoy retirement.<br />
<br />
And then he kept going.<br />
<br />
I first wrote about Federer <a href="http://grogsgamut.blogspot.com.au/2008/09/effortlessness-of-gods.html">in 2008</a> after he won the US Open that year. Already at that point the talk was about how long would he go - most assumed he'd try to keep going till the London Olympics, as it would be played at Wimbledon.<br />
<br />
Back then Federer had just won his 13th title, but was yet to win a French Open. He would go on to win the French the following year and was in the midst of possibly the greatest run of Grand Slam performance anyone has ever done. A run that saw him make the final of 18 out of 19 slams - a number really only Steffi Graf and Martina Navratolova can match - Steffi reached 13 finals in a row from 1987-1990 and Martina reached 22 out of 25 from 1981 to 1987 (the best Djokovic has done is 6 finals in a row, Serena, 4; Nadal 5; Chris Evert is tougher to count because she skipped the Aus Open a lot).<br />
<br />
So he made 18 out of 19 finals, won 12 of them, and people were talking about his getting to 20 slams.<br />
<br />
Kevin Mitchell writing in Guardian stated <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2010/jan/31/andy-murray-roger-federer-australian-open">as a mater of fact</a>, "This was Federer's 16th slam. There will be more".<br />
<br />
Joe Drape in the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/01/sports/tennis/01tennis.html">NY Times pondered</a>, "By winning his fourth Australian Open, Federer may have his best opportunity to join Don Budge (1938) and Rod Laver (1962, ’69) in taking down the sport’s holy grail: a Grand Slam, a sweep of the four major tournaments in the same year."<br />
<br />
Instead that title marked the end of the era - knocked out in the quarter finals at both the French and Wimbledon and losing in the semi finals to Djokovic, who at that time had won only 1 grand slam title and was about to start his own era.<br />
<br />
Just how much one era finished and a new one for Djokovic began is evident from their respective Grand Slam performances:<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHsmxHoRHyli44eLoSzRFEnSUvBzJqrQZrk7OluLrsR6_eA9DnT96AWIeI-REBWbyW5fXBxvA88OKidKCK4Z_s2zHP_LqaEbgsBxYRhqPWoBA3MddA2dEBwtTiDDb7ba8q9AAe4hnbPW4J/s1600/Fed+and+Djoko.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="549" data-original-width="1081" height="324" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHsmxHoRHyli44eLoSzRFEnSUvBzJqrQZrk7OluLrsR6_eA9DnT96AWIeI-REBWbyW5fXBxvA88OKidKCK4Z_s2zHP_LqaEbgsBxYRhqPWoBA3MddA2dEBwtTiDDb7ba8q9AAe4hnbPW4J/s640/Fed+and+Djoko.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
After Federer's win at the US Open in 2012, he would win one more in the next 6 years - in that time Djokovic would win 11 out of 22.<br />
<br />
And then Djokovic stopped. Injuries, yes... but when we compare Federer and Djokovic's performances by age rather than year, it is less surprising:<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPQXK4x2lQT4k36udb4eVnhfMnGLhqDeh1kXW_GifvuydQmZnJl8LzSgx8JWUkV0x3P7aeg6jh6XVw5NCqYZfCqODOmX2h3kMUbRRiRwX0hASSe4dnjaeUmV0wXmuZ1EJlgqNE1ScRfyPB/s1600/Fed+and+Djo.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="595" data-original-width="1048" height="362" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPQXK4x2lQT4k36udb4eVnhfMnGLhqDeh1kXW_GifvuydQmZnJl8LzSgx8JWUkV0x3P7aeg6jh6XVw5NCqYZfCqODOmX2h3kMUbRRiRwX0hASSe4dnjaeUmV0wXmuZ1EJlgqNE1ScRfyPB/s640/Fed+and+Djo.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
Federer's era ended when he turned 28, Djokovic's when he turned 29.<br />
<br />
Djokovic's drop-off has been sharper because he suffered injuries, unlike Federer, who did not miss a grand slam until the 2016 French Open, by which time he was already 34 - 4 years older the Djokovic is now.<br />
<br />
It shows the task ahead of Djokovic. Unless something very odd happens, he is never going to be as dominant as he was when he was from age 24 to 29. But he might be able to be as good - which is what has happened with Federer.<br />
<br />
Federer is not as dominant, because he'll still get the odd back issue (cf last year's US Open) and he'll generally skip the French Open - he hasn't played it since 2015 and I wonder if the next time he plays that tournament it will be because he is doing a bit of a farewell tour - but he is as good.<br />
<br />
The weird thing about Federer's past 12 months is how after last year's Australian Open the titles have felt a bit anti-climatic. The Wimbledon win was so by-the-numbers - not dropping a set, not really facing anyone dangerous - Cilic was, but he was so hobbled in the final that is was not a fair fight - that I didn't even bother to write a post about it.<br />
<br />
And now he has won 20 titles.<br />
<br />
So what does it all mean? Superlatives aplenty - he probably has the most of any man sewn up. Nadal might get to 20, but no one else.<br />
<br />
For Djokovic to get to 20 would require not only his getting his game back (a big call, given how awful it was to watch him founder against Chung in the 4th round) but he needs to do so before the younger generation steps up.<br />
<br />
As I always like to point out, Djokovic - and even Nadal - are not really Federer's contemporaries.<br />
<br />
Fed's peers - Hewitt, Safin, Roddick, bowed out ages ago. He has been playing against younger guys for most of his career now - his Wimbledon win against Roddick was in 2009, since then he has really been playing against Nadal, Djokovic and Murray in their primes, rather than them in his, and those three are among the best three ever to play.<br />
<br />
For Federer to get to 20 he needed to win a stack before the younger mob - especially Djokovic - worked out how to win. Now the younger gen of Thiem, Kyrgios, Zverev are learning how to win. They haven't really clicked at the slams yet, but it can happen quickly.<br />
<br />
When Federer won his first slam title he had before that never been past the quarter finals, and Nadal (clay freak that he is) had never even made a quarter final in a slam before he won his first title.<br />
<br />
But this time last year I suggested we were about to enter an era where there would be 3 or 4 different winners of slams each year. That the past 5 have been Federer, Nadal, Federer, Nadal, Federer does suggest a few things:<br />
<br />
<ol>
<li>Federer and Nadal are freaks</li>
<li>Technology and strategy</li>
<li>Luck and injuries</li>
<li>The depth of men's tennis is not great</li>
</ol>
<div>
Federer and Nadal are really the only two in the contest for greatest male player of the open era - so we can safety assume they are a bit out-of-the-box different.<br />
<br />
But they have been helped and have also adapted. The technology means Nadal is able to play the way he does for longer than would have been possible with the old racquets and strings. Federer too is not the same player he was when he won Wimbledon in 2012 - he has a bigger racquet and he is playing differently - especially on the backhand.<br />
<br />
The Federer of 2018 would beat Federer of 2012 - a better backhand, smarter use of serve volley, more attacking return, more emphasis on shorter points rather than stubbornly trying to beat Djokovic, Murray and Nadal at the baseline.<br />
<br />
And both Nadal and Federer have been helped by injuries (which to be fair, they too have had recently).<br />
<br />
But let's not put any asterisks on any of these wins. That Djokovic, Murray and Wawrinka may have been injured is irrelevant. You want to win at sport - stay healthy and turn up. Richmond might have been helped by the Crows having Brodie Smith and Mitch McGovern out injured for the grand final, but so what - best team on the day wins.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
In 2008, Federer had glandular fever when he lost to Djokovic in the semis of the Australian Open - that doesn't diminish Djokovic's victory at all. Life it tough at the pinnacle of sport - tore a hamstring? Got blisters? Pity. So sad. Sorry, someone else gets to win. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
But the loss of Djokovic, Murray and Warinka to injuries - much like the loss of Federer in 2016, revealed that there is not much else there. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Here are the men's finalists of the past 5 slams:</div>
<div>
Federer, Nadal, Cilic, Wawrinka, Anderson. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Just five players. That's not many taking advantage of all the injuries to top players. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Here were the men's 3-8 seeds at the Australian Open and their best ever slam performance:</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Dimitrov (SF), Zverev (4th), Thiem (SF - French), Cilic (W), Goffin (QF), Sock (4th). </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
That is not a murderer's row of players. Zverev is young, so he gets a pass, But Dimitrov is now 26 - and should be at or near his peak, Thiem is only 24, but outside of the Paris clay he has not reached a quarter final, Goffin is 27 and as honest a player as you can get but 2 quarter finals in his entire career says it all really, and Sock might one day make a run somewhere, but he is 0-8 against Federer/Nadal and I doubt either of them cared too much whether he ended up in their half of the draw. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
I could see Dimitrov winning one, Zverev could (will?) win a bundle, Thiem surely will crack it for the French Open (maybe even this year), and Cilic is every chance to add to his US Open title. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
But this was the men's top 8 seeds at the Australian Open two years ago and their best performances:</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Djokovic (W), Murray (W), Federer (W), Wawrinka (W), Nadal (W), Berdych (F), Nishikori (F), Ferrer (F). </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Now <i>that </i>was a line up. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
And we're a long way from seeing its like. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Federer has certainly improved his game - the topspin backhand is a thing of beauty all Federer fans wish he had been using throughout his career given how it has enabled him to beat Nadal 4 times in a row last year. But he is right when he said at the start of the tournament that a 36 year old should not be the favorite. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
And neither for that matter should Nadal at 31 year old. Where are the 24-28 year olds? </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Alas that group - led by Dimitrov, Raonic and Nishikori have not been able to snag a slam title - let alone look like reaching number 1.<br />
<br />
And the lack of real depth has meant Federer and Nadal have been able to grab a couple more titles at an age when they really shouldn't.<br />
<br />
That Djokovic, Murray and Wawrinka have faltered due to injury/age (call it what you will) is not all that surprising. It is what happens.<br />
<br />
Usually what happens is the best players get older, drop off and then the new guys come through.<br />
<br />
It is exactly what happened to Federer. Yes he beat Sampras in the 2001 Wimbledon 4th round, but when he won his first grand slam title at the 2003 Wimbledon, Sampras was retired, and so too were the other best male grass court players, Pat Rafter and Goran Ivanisevic. Agassi was still there, but at 33 would never win another slam and only one more Masters title.<br />
<br />
Here were the men's top 8 seeds of Wimbledon that year:<br />
<br />
Hewitt, Agassi, Carlos Ferrero, Federer, Roddick, Nalbandian, Coria, Shalken.<br />
<br />
All except Agassi and Shalken were 20-23yo.<br />
<br />
The time was ripe for a win from the younger brigade - and Federer did, beating Mark Philippoussis who was having his last moment in the sun.<br />
<br />
But on the way Fedeer beat Lee Hyung-taik (older journeyman), Koubek (older journeyman), Mardy Fish (same age), Feliciano Lopez (same age), Shalken (older better journeyman), Roddick (same age) and then Phillippousis who had taken out Agassi, so was in effect subbing in as the best player from the previous era.<br />
<br />
So to win his first title, Federer mostly had to beat his peers and then beat just one of the very good older gang.<br />
<br />
Now the easy answer as to why the generation of 24-28 year olds has not broken through is that they keep hitting into the older top 4/5 who have stuck around longer and healthier than previous late 20s, early 30s players.<br />
<br />
But here is who Dimitrov has lost to in Grand Slams since turning 23 before the 2015 Wimbledon:<br />
<br />
Gasquet (3rd rd), Kukushkin (2nd), Federer (3rd), Troicki (1st), Johnson (3rd), Murray (4th), Nadal (SF), Schwartzman (3rd), Federer (4th), Rublev (2nd), Edmund (QF).<br />
<br />
So yes, out of 11 tournaments he has had to play Federer twice, and Nadal and Murray once. But what about the others? At last year's US Open he came into the event having won his first Masters title at Cincinnati, and then he lost to 19 year old Rublev. You can't blame the older guys for that. Nadal played Rublev in the quarter finals - Rublev won a total of 5 games.<br />
<br />
Edmund, who he lost to last week in the QF, is younger than he is.<br />
<br />
This is not to pick on Dimitrov, whom I love to watch play, but at least Milos Raonic has lost to either Murray, Nadal or Federer in 4 of his past 8 grand slam tournaments.<br />
<br />
Most male players reach number 1 between the age of 21 and 25:<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOIyh5XVIiCO8_o58koQBdCeSZgT8JCRY3ftIpQpyGyEI8Pny1UfJ-cKbWCFaYcuqNQg4-cK5Xec7l-qDx1apPz36tPGiN9Cx_6kQF7LIgwXDEF9ZFFOXGDUzCpegWFPDlOet_xEu6E1JL/s1600/Number+1+ages.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="600" data-original-width="1037" height="370" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOIyh5XVIiCO8_o58koQBdCeSZgT8JCRY3ftIpQpyGyEI8Pny1UfJ-cKbWCFaYcuqNQg4-cK5Xec7l-qDx1apPz36tPGiN9Cx_6kQF7LIgwXDEF9ZFFOXGDUzCpegWFPDlOet_xEu6E1JL/s640/Number+1+ages.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
There are only 4 players under 25 in the top 20 - Zverev, Thiem, Kyrgios and Pouille. At the grand slams they have 2 semi final and 4 quarter final appearances between them (and the SFs are both Thiem's).<br />
<br />
Since Connors reached Number 1 in 1974, there has been a pretty consistent turnover of new Number 1 players in the world - on average going from one player to someone born 18 months after they had been.<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQWjbe9BwFxvb0hWqzL0L_rBqncxEl_PgvhC38F4v_zIdT2hf2xW4ZHyy4L90EnxNyi6vS5HzAzcV-hniB-r6wMCJeetXzL47dsFl47Ctz1jgy0eH8i74DWxcgbUwIbF2Q-mS2ve4DRAWn/s1600/Dates+of+birth.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="574" data-original-width="1072" height="342" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQWjbe9BwFxvb0hWqzL0L_rBqncxEl_PgvhC38F4v_zIdT2hf2xW4ZHyy4L90EnxNyi6vS5HzAzcV-hniB-r6wMCJeetXzL47dsFl47Ctz1jgy0eH8i74DWxcgbUwIbF2Q-mS2ve4DRAWn/s640/Dates+of+birth.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
If that were to follow, the next number 1 would be born around the middle of 1989 - but that would make that player already 29 years old.<br />
<br />
And the reality is while there is a general smooth increase in ages, what usually happens is there is a bunching of players around the same age, and then a jump to a new bunch of players who are 3-5 years younger:<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhR5EOYDMXiwiJpjzE0OwRuD2XUHKvUkqeYpsDgphEhWx06AHPBW81eAqSCX251CFZFZotGt2b-tgDW3NrgL1yAvwjY80gHdDS_by3g1qf7Zh3N8LF75NmvANUel8tTWAV_xshtK4bqXJv8/s1600/AGes+again.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="506" data-original-width="252" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhR5EOYDMXiwiJpjzE0OwRuD2XUHKvUkqeYpsDgphEhWx06AHPBW81eAqSCX251CFZFZotGt2b-tgDW3NrgL1yAvwjY80gHdDS_by3g1qf7Zh3N8LF75NmvANUel8tTWAV_xshtK4bqXJv8/s640/AGes+again.png" width="316" /></a></div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Connors-Borg, give way to McEnroe-Lendl, who give way to Wilander, Edberg, Becker and on and on. Yes the older guys stick around a bit or some of the younger ones come a bit earlier than others, but pretty much it holds.<br />
<br />
So we should now be looking for an era of players who were born 4-5 years after Nadal, Djokovic and Murray - players born in 1992-93 - that is 24-26 year olds.<br />
<br />
Right now there are 4 players aged 24, 25 or 26 in the top 10 - Dimitrov, Thiem, Sock and Carreno-Busta.<br />
<br />
But there are only 4 more in the rest of the top 50.<br />
<br />
Federer and Nadal are great players, certainly. But not only are they helped by their great ability, they are also helped by there being a dearth of talent among the players who would normally be peaking right now - it shouldn't be Federer and Nadal who are the ones taking advantage of injuries to Djokovic, Murray and Wawrinka.<br />
<br />
Now maybe that peak will occur at an older age and Dimtrov et al will win a lot of slams from aged 27-30.<br />
<br />
My suspicion however is Kyrgios, Zverev, Chung, Rublev, Shapavolov, Medvedev and others yet to turn 23 will not be so lacking in titles over the next 3 to 4 years.<br />
<br />
They are young enough not to be thinking "Why oh why did Fed/ Nadal/ Djokovic/ Murray/ Wawrinka have to be around when I was playing?", instead they are thinking, "Get out of the way, Grandpa."<br />
<br />
And so Federer's 20th title is a great achievement. It was one which I, as an obscenely obsessive Federer-fan, loved to watch.<br />
<br />
But the sport needs new champions. One reason talk about Federer retiring has diminished is there is no reason for him to do so. Nothing makes a player feel older than getting beaten by players a decade or more younger than he or she is.<br />
<br />
That's when you start thinking about how you're getting too old for this crap.<br />
<br />
And right now, Federer is thinking he is still the right age.<br />
<br />
***<br />
<br />
So who is the greatest of all-time? Whenever this question is asked, generally the response is - "Federer! Nadal" and "Excuse me, Serena is!"<br />
<b><br /></b>
I'm not a big fan of comparing men and women against each other in sport. I don't think it serves any good purpose. I didn't watch the last Olympics and think, "Gee who is a better 100m runner, Usain Bolt or Elaine Thompson?"<br />
<br />
Karrie Webb is certainly Australia's most successful golfer of all time, but does that make her the greatest? It's one of those questions where if you answer "Yes", you are admitting a few caveats (ie she never beat any men), and if you answer "No", you are assuming being greatest automatically means being male.<br />
<br />
Serena might have more slams, but is she better? In what sense? Is Federer better? If so, is it not only because as a male he has inherent advantages that don't really go to who is the better "player" (whatever that means)?<br />
<br />
That Federer won last year after 6 months off after knee surgery was amazing, that Serena won while 2 months pregnant is unbelievable. But I have no idea which is the greater achievement, and I just can't see much worth in arguing either way.<br />
<br />
But I can understand people getting pretty damn annoyed when you see media orgs write that Federer is the "first <b>person </b>to win 20 grand slams". And I can also understand those who feel that the "Greatest of All-time debate" is always inherently about men. It's not hard to say "Greatest male player" or "Greatest woman player" and maybe that is where is should stand (not so good for the GOAT acronym though!), and to be honest I'll often say Federer is the greatest of all time, just as I'll often say Serena is the greatest of all time without any gender adjective - such as I did <a href="https://twitter.com/GrogsGamut/status/825284933480390656">here</a>.<br />
<br />
It is hard enough to compare Federer with Nadal given Nadal's better head-to-head record, but Federer's better performance on non-clay (11-8 on hardcourt). There are three Masters events on clay, none on grass, would not Federer's head to head record be better were that not the case?<br />
<br />
On the women's side it is even harder to compare the three greatest of the open era - Serena, Steffi Graf and Martina Navratalova. Who played in the era of more depth? Whose record is better? Serena has 23 slam titles, but Steffi was number 1 for 55 more weeks than Serena has been, and she retired when she had just turned 30 - so Williams has had 6 more years than Graf, but been Number 1 for 55 weeks fewer? Does that make Steffi greater?<br />
<br />
Some days I think, yes, others I think no.<br />
<br />
But a few have wondered about Serena's path to 23 grand slam titles so below is the graph with Serena, Graf, Federer and Nadal:<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijpwIaTXCE_FmqfOq4VpsOKuyExcEa4gQb5S4D7ebWhlrxhjvQs4O47j_hXH5stkMSaYsetQmxHUwHG4chKPyz5FN1IpHlviSnfLjfICP6ucLPE-bg2PoCgNKrQzC1Bo7qhqVPQUUkVJwP/s1600/Men+and+women+age.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="589" data-original-width="1102" height="342" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijpwIaTXCE_FmqfOq4VpsOKuyExcEa4gQb5S4D7ebWhlrxhjvQs4O47j_hXH5stkMSaYsetQmxHUwHG4chKPyz5FN1IpHlviSnfLjfICP6ucLPE-bg2PoCgNKrQzC1Bo7qhqVPQUUkVJwP/s640/Men+and+women+age.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
One thing: Graf was amazing. I have long believed her to be the greatest women's player, but I now think Serena has just edged ahead (at least I think I think this). That Graf won all 4 slams 4 times, however remains an amazing feat (Serena has "only" done it three times - Fed and Nadal just once).<br />
<br />
The main reason I believe Serena is the greater of the pair is that I can't recall a time when she has not been favourite in a tournament. If she is there, she is the one to beat. That was not the case with Graf once Monica Seles came along (and to be honest has not been the case for either Federer or Nadal for large portions of their careers).<br />
<br />
But think on this, had Serena retired at the same age Graf did, we would be comparing two players one of whom would have won 9 more grand slams titles. That is astonishing.<br />
<br />
So Graf probably gets it for brilliance at the top, Serena for longevity. Who is the greatest? Serena... no Steffi... no Serena....<br />
<br />
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Greg Jerichohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04956402439870441083noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8434369190746987531.post-81232326815594202742017-01-31T21:17:00.000+11:002017-01-31T23:00:18.358+11:00Federer releases "Imagine"Whenever I return to this blog to look at things I wrote about in the past, more often than not it is the non-political posts that I re-read, perhaps because now that I am paid to write about economic and politics, the writing on sport and movies and music still has the appeal of a hobby - which is what this blog only ever was.<br />
<br />
This week I did get to write in Guardian Aus <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2017/jan/29/its-the-match-everyone-wanted-god-of-tennis-meets-prometheus">on tennis</a> and while that was fun, I decided to write another post here because this week a few people on Twitter had reminded me of things I had written about Federer in the past. And on looking back over the posts I realised, I just <i>have to</i> write another post after this win.<br />
<br />
For you see I have written a bit on Federer.<br />
<br />
The first time was <a href="http://grogsgamut.blogspot.com.au/2008/09/effortlessness-of-gods.html">in 2008</a> when I commented on his winning the US Open that year meant he had avoided in the eyes of some critics a failure - because after 4 years where he had won 3, 2, 3 and 3 slam titles respectively, in 2008 he was merely a semi-finalist at the Australian Open and runner-up at the French Open and Wimbledon.<br />
<br />
Now sure, 2008 was in some ways a nadir for Fed. The French Open flogging he received from Nadal was otherworldly. He met the greatest clay court play at the absolute height of his powers, and was destroyed, winning only 4 games in 3 sets.<br />
<br />
But he won the US Open in 2008, and went on to make the finals in the next 5 grand slams, winning 3 of them.<br />
<br />
I was already waxing pretty lyrical about Federer then.<br />
<br />
I can't remember whether I had read David Foster Wallace's NY Times article on Federer that he wrote in 2006, but nonetheless I was certainly already in the spirit of those Fed articles that are now so prevalent across the web, given the title was "the effortlessness of gods" .<br />
<br />
I wrote that one reason Federer was held in higher regard than others such as Nadal (Djokovic was a one slam winner at this stage, so not in the conversation yet) was that he achieved what he did with (to quote Harold Abrahams in Chariots of Fire) "the apparent effortlessness of gods".<br />
<br />
I still think that holds up. Yeah we love sportsmen and women who win, but we always hold those who seem to do it with ease, just that bit higher.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://grogsgamut.blogspot.com.au/2009/06/federer-lets-me-get-some-sleep.html">In 2009</a> when I next wrote on Federer - this time about his winning the French Open - I opened the post with perhaps the most absurdly naive thing I have ever written:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Last night I stayed up till 1:30am watching Roger Federer
play a game of tennis. I don't think I'll ever have to do that again.</blockquote>
And just to fully show how deluded I was, I ended by writing:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div class="MsoNormal">
But now that Federer has won the French Open; and now that
he has equaled Sampras' record of 14 titles I don't feel such a need to will
him over the line. Perhaps now I can relax and just enjoy watching him play,
rather than live every point and worry when he gets down 15-30.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Wimbledon starts in a month; and we'll see, but I'm betting
I'll be setting the DVD recorder going rather than looking at the clock and
thinking "I have to get up for work in 5 hours..."</div>
</blockquote>
Lets just say I lost that bet. - seven and half years later, 3 grand slam titles later, and I am still living every point and still worrying when he gets down 15-30.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://grogsgamut.blogspot.com.au/2011/07/federer-releases-let-it-be.html">By 2011</a> I had taken a different tack. When Federer lost in the Wimbledon quarter finals to Tsonga after being up 2 sets to love, I decided to compare him to The Beatles - suggesting his glory years were akin to the run of The Beatles going from Rubber Soul to The White Album - wherein everything in popular music was changed.<br />
<br />
I argued his loss to Tsonga was the equivalent of him releasing "Let it Be" - ie not that great and basically meaning the end was nigh.<br />
<br />
I suggested it showed that his decline was not a blip, but that his time as the very best player ever - and more so as a player whose game was so far above all others it changed the way the game was played - was over.<br />
<br />
However, I also suggested:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div class="MsoNormal">
Tennis fans, and especially Federer loyalists, will hope
that there is time for an Abbey Road – that one last Grand Slam where the stars
align and for 7 matches he comes back. It is more likely to happen than not.</div>
</blockquote>
And so it did come to pass.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://grogsgamut.blogspot.com.au/2012/07/federer-releases-abbey-road.html">In 2012</a>, when he beat Murray in the Wimbledon final I wrote that "Federer releases Abbey Road" (which of course was released before Let it Be, but recorded after - just to fully ensure the analogy is mangled).<br />
<br />
And just to demonstrate how wrong I was in 2009 about not caring, I watched that final in a small cabin in Port Macquarie on a little portable TV, while on holidays. And it wasn't 1:30am, but 3:15am that I stayed up till watching. I also spent most of the match standing up because at one point while Federer was facing break point I happened to stand up, and when he saved the point and held serve, I decided that I needed to remain standing in order to help him win.<br />
<br />
Yeah, I'm that deranged when it comes to Federer.<br />
<br />
When <a href="http://grogsgamut.blogspot.com.au/2013/06/federer-releases-his-solo-album-sunday.html">in 2013</a> he then lost in the 2nd round at Wimbledon to Sergiy Stakhovsky I suggested he had released his first solo album.<br />
<br />
But as despondent as I was, I did still hold out some hope that despite the end of his 36 slam run of quarter final appearances, there was still a chance for some more glory:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div class="MsoNormal">
And so last night we saw what happens after the band splits
up. Out comes the disappointing solo album. In this case it is more “McCartney”
than “John Lennon/Plastic Ono Band”, but in either case it was a long way from
the magic that once was.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Will Federer release an “Imagine”? Who knows. He still seems
to love playing, and he can still at times sing on a tennis court in a way that
reminds you that this guy was once better than anyone else ever has been.</div>
</blockquote>
Well it was a long wait, but on Sunday, Federer released "Imagine"<br />
<br />
It's an analogy that I think works particularly well, because like Lennon's album, Federer's win against Nadal in 5 sets will likely be over-rated. I believe his win was among the toughest he has ever had to do - beating 4 players in the top 10 to do it, and comeback down a break in the 5th against his longest and perhaps only nemesis, after not playing a tournament in 6 months?<br />
<br />
How do you do that? How do you do that at 35 years of age?<br />
<br />
But even still, the tennis he played was not relatively speaking a patch on the glory years. It was certainly great and because sport always moves forward Federer 2017 would beat Federer 2005, but back then he was doing things with the racquet that had never been done - and more than that, had not been dreamed of being done. In the past fortnight he was "just" doing things as well as anyone else.<br />
<br />
And while "Imagine" the song is the favourite of many of Lennon's fans, the impact of the song on world culture was nothing compared to that which he wrote with McCartney in 1963-67.<br />
<br />
But by God, like "Imagine", that 5th set will be for many who saw it as the peak of Federer's career.<br />
<br />
I thought he was gone. But then I didn't rate him a chance to beat Berdych in the 3rd round.<br />
<br />
Federer's 1st and 2nd round matches were the text-book definition of "rusty", and even though he beat Rubin in straight sets in the 2nd round, I thought his game pretty poor.<br />
<br />
And then he reduced Berdych to a spectator....<br />
<br />
I still thought he'd probably lose to Nishikori in the 4th round. And when he lost the 4th set, I really thought he'd let a big chance slip, because by that time Murray had been knocked out and so too had Djokovic.<br />
<br />
By the time he played Wawrinka in the semi-final I was in full "well he's done so well to get this far" mode. And after he lost the 3rd and 4th sets I was in full trying-to-convince-myself-it-doesn't-matter-all-that-much mode, life is still good, I told myself.<br />
<br />
To be honest I didn't want him to play Nadal in the final. I knew he would of course. I knew that would happen from the 4th round on wards. Of course Federer would make the final and of course he would face Nadal and lose.<br />
<br />
Pessimist that I was I was actually preferring he lose to Wawrinka in the semis than make the final and lose to Nadal.<br />
<br />
But he played against Nadal the way he should always have played against Nadal - attackign and stepping in to hit his backhand, rather than trying to slice or just out-rally Nadal. For so much of the match it all seemed on Fed's racquet. The points felt like they were either Federer winner or Federer unforced error.<br />
<br />
Nadal of course did hit winners - 35 to Fed's 73 - and of course he did force a lot of errors, but the overall tone of the match was of Nadal remaining solidly good and Federer being very good, then very bad, then very good, then very bad.<br />
<br />
The first 4 sets were not to be honest great tennis. The Nadal-Dimitrov match was better viewing. None of the set required a player getting to 7 games. No tie breakers. It was 4 sets where both players took turns wining it comfortably - hardly a classic.<br />
<br />
But then Lennon's <i>Imagine </i>has a few dud tracks (does anyone ever hum "Crippled Inside", or "It's so Hard"? <br />
<br />
But then came the 5th set, when both players were amazing at the same time.<br />
<br />
All that needs to be seen to know how good they both were is this rally with Nadal serving at deuce with Federer down a break 3-4:<br />
<br />
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<iframe allowfullscreen="" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/cDv6uCyq8OE/0.jpg" frameborder="0" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/cDv6uCyq8OE?feature=player_embedded" width="320"></iframe></div>
<br />
That is tennis played by gods.<br />
<br />
And of course Federer was down break points when serving for the match. Long time Fed watchers know he always makes you earn it. He doesn't get broken often while serving for the set or match, but he rarely seems to do it easily.<br />
<br />
The scars of the break to Djokovic in the semis at the 2011 US Open will never quite heal.<br />
<br />
At 30-40 in the final game Federer unleashed an inside out forehand winner that long-time followers should have predicited.<br />
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<iframe allowfullscreen="" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/QIpkHPzshLY/0.jpg" frameborder="0" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/QIpkHPzshLY?feature=player_embedded" width="320"></iframe></div>
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Despite facing a couple more break points, that shot took me right back to 2009, when against Tommy Hass in the 4th round of the French Open, when down 2 sets to love and facing a break point at 3-4 he let rip the same inside out forehand for a winner. </div>
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It is the shot that ensured he got through to the French Open final that year. It is the shot that changed men's tennis:</div>
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<iframe allowfullscreen="" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/yErOd_U1_HQ/0.jpg" frameborder="0" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/yErOd_U1_HQ?feature=player_embedded" width="320"></iframe></div>
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<br /></div>
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For me Federer is the greatest of all-time, not because of the number of titles, but because since 2003 men's tennis has been viewed through the Federer lens, in much the same way as women's tennis since 2002 has been viewed through a Serena lens. </div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
You either had to develop a game as attacking as Federer's or come up with one that could defend his attacks for long enough to break him down - this is the path Nadal, Djokovic and Murray have taken; Del Potro and Wawrinka took the more attacking route (though Djokovic better than anyone perhaps ever in history is able to turn defence into attack).</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
At 18 slams he probably will hold the record for men for a very long time, but as we shall see, Djokovic could get there (I really can't see Nadal winning another 4 - it doesn't sound like many, but given his last 4 wins have taken 5 years, I just can't see it happening) </div>
<br />
<br />
I will of course be greedy for more wins and will get nervous and spend half of matches standing up or sitting in a certain way, but to be honest, I can't see Sunday night being topped for emotion.<br />
<br />
And so now to the graphs.<br />
<br />
Here what Federer's career Grand Slam graph now looks like:<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3AqYzl2ifZn-LmUv9GI0_ffg0spT5AUvjhbN8736zr_qCWExR5mxuZWSIEsc8QT2yzMlEDNzIbnG-ZupJCnZIy1yDMm954qDGe2n2UYCVjzAMMpw4AH53MnScrwLvFu68aO7sEmrAF1CG/s1600/Federer.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="289" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3AqYzl2ifZn-LmUv9GI0_ffg0spT5AUvjhbN8736zr_qCWExR5mxuZWSIEsc8QT2yzMlEDNzIbnG-ZupJCnZIy1yDMm954qDGe2n2UYCVjzAMMpw4AH53MnScrwLvFu68aO7sEmrAF1CG/s640/Federer.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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And here's the path to 18 slam wins by age compared to Nadal, Djokovic and Sampras:</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXkLiFkOIl3CePTmyoXGcA4LLCycMg_d8iRxmrioHcN72ewMaiqXd5ln7xTnReUYBGd73cMZSA9IVciz4xDqNMYmIXz9B00wKJnFrQ7xe2t5FnyoqyqKICr4MCFQp6XnpyfNZhdtKktRB3/s1600/Slams+age.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="348" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXkLiFkOIl3CePTmyoXGcA4LLCycMg_d8iRxmrioHcN72ewMaiqXd5ln7xTnReUYBGd73cMZSA9IVciz4xDqNMYmIXz9B00wKJnFrQ7xe2t5FnyoqyqKICr4MCFQp6XnpyfNZhdtKktRB3/s640/Slams+age.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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Now looking at that graph might have you thinking that if Djokovic keeps going at the same trajectory he has for the past couple years, he will reach Fed's 18. But it also shows how tough it is to win once you hit 30 - the age Djokovic (and Murray) will be by the time of the French Open.<br />
<br />
The graph also suggests Djokovic will struggle to get to Federer's total because he came good a couple years later than did Federer.<br />
<br />
Federer took longer to win his first slam title than did Nadal or Djokovic (let alone the 19 year old Sampras). But once he got a taste for it, he really gorged himself:<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhM-ZK0lawqT4SE244SVmbCqQexyG5eMdW3UcH9BlfvRJygFJfqk4_dC7k5ZQ6RcAu3ObJCYSCI8mBMhWrKqTGlojKdtdMP9qcWMyLPHnfKpKI65tQkW5_Ls4KgAZ0UyJbQaW99qN27WhjY/s1600/Slams+won.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="348" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhM-ZK0lawqT4SE244SVmbCqQexyG5eMdW3UcH9BlfvRJygFJfqk4_dC7k5ZQ6RcAu3ObJCYSCI8mBMhWrKqTGlojKdtdMP9qcWMyLPHnfKpKI65tQkW5_Ls4KgAZ0UyJbQaW99qN27WhjY/s640/Slams+won.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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If we look at Djokovic's Grand Slam graph we see a gap after that first Australian Open win until his second Aussie Open win</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYa9uNJDejVbtEr6qW4ps22iBmoWGn_VMyy1Y3TRyG4GVdHc5ZuCx1652rkzbnzYxXt2sgUPt6OgGez7wThSkpqO1mc2tuFo1IUw12kL5MptyGVuTHbgX9DM3vqSDQeG0G8V_Cjow_7CAr/s1600/Djoker.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="304" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYa9uNJDejVbtEr6qW4ps22iBmoWGn_VMyy1Y3TRyG4GVdHc5ZuCx1652rkzbnzYxXt2sgUPt6OgGez7wThSkpqO1mc2tuFo1IUw12kL5MptyGVuTHbgX9DM3vqSDQeG0G8V_Cjow_7CAr/s640/Djoker.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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After he broke through beating Tsonga in the 2008 Australian Open, Djokovic did not make another final until the 2010 US Open (he lost to Federer). But once he won the 2011 Australian Open, he like Federer did, got a taste for it. His peak had a bit more of a "lull" than did Federer's, but after winning just once slam each in 2012, 2013 and 2014, he got his full mojo back and won 6 out of 8, including the incredible 4 in a row - something Federer was never able to achieve.<br />
<br />
Comparing the careers of Federer and Djokovic is more interesting to me than that of Nadal. Nadal with his French Open dominance never has had the consistency across the slams as has Fed and Djokovic. In "only" 3 years has Nadal reached the quarter finals of every slam; Djokoivc has done it in 6 years and Federer in 8.<br />
<br />
If you took away each of the three player's best slam, Federer would lose 7 Wimbledon titles and still have 11 slams; Djokovic would lose 6 Australian Opens and still have 6 slams, while Nadal would lose 9 French Open titles and have only 5 slams.<br />
<br />
So Nadal is certainly great, but for comparing all-surface careers, Federer and Djokovic are much more similar.<br />
<br />
If we assign 1 point for losing in the first round of a slam and 8 points for winning the championship were are able to figure a running 4 slam average for each player. Doing so allows us to see the impact of Djokovic's rise had on Federer:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyYMS80uyYGMJuog4bdHKBarOkyRgPNNA820ERUdTeohCr94R17kWRsmSdoxia4KNe2dAHeMaX5Hby6Rk3nbqCQ6NMwPPEeYVliDZ_byOPzDj9qA_0ipz5jP01RI9Lp1ul1r-lOc_G13aV/s1600/Djoker+and+Fed.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="324" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyYMS80uyYGMJuog4bdHKBarOkyRgPNNA820ERUdTeohCr94R17kWRsmSdoxia4KNe2dAHeMaX5Hby6Rk3nbqCQ6NMwPPEeYVliDZ_byOPzDj9qA_0ipz5jP01RI9Lp1ul1r-lOc_G13aV/s640/Djoker+and+Fed.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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When Djokovic won his second Australian Open title, Federer had already won 16 grand slam titles. Since then he has won 2 and Djokovic has won 10 more. </div>
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The impact of Nadal was not as stark. When Nadal won his first non-French Open slam in 2008, Federer had already won 12 titles, but he would still win 4 out of the next 6 before dropping off. </div>
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What is interesting about Federer and Djokovic is how their career paths have been remarkably similar. If we take the above graph, but adjust it according to the ages of each player rather than year, we see the similarity more clearly:</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhW3jHfAor1-5kHuRkb1TeSIWKPqQ1PBfssc9mz7FR0oTWRp3FXjE4jf9CDemgLfBtyoVoeoa_4qNDYbkiRSqHLAb2ArCoWmqMRwY2qr629147-OspC3lzUyucraVKwEktUPRR9PgD2yAj4/s1600/Fed+and+Djo.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="362" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhW3jHfAor1-5kHuRkb1TeSIWKPqQ1PBfssc9mz7FR0oTWRp3FXjE4jf9CDemgLfBtyoVoeoa_4qNDYbkiRSqHLAb2ArCoWmqMRwY2qr629147-OspC3lzUyucraVKwEktUPRR9PgD2yAj4/s640/Fed+and+Djo.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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It also shows how tough it is for Djokovic to get to 18. By the time Djokovic won his second title, he was at an age at which Federer had already won 5. </div>
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The chart shows pretty clearly that the peak age for a tennis player is from 23 to 29. During that period Federer won 12 titles, Djokovic 11. So Djokovic needs to make up for his slower start and that one less title during the peak years. </div>
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And while Federer dropped of a touch earlier than did Djokovic, the fall was remarkably similar, and if anything Djokovic's had been more sudden. </div>
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After Federer won the Australian Open in 2010 his next 4 slam performances were: QF, QF, SF, SF. Since winning the French Open last year, Djokovic has gone 3rd, F, 2nd. </div>
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Will the French Open see the continued drop off or will he recover? </div>
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Sport is a damn funny thing. When Federer won that 2010 Australian Open he had made the final of 18 of the previous 19 slams - an unheard of level of dominance. People were talking about 20 slam titles. </div>
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And then he only reached 3 of the next 19 finals and only won 1 of them. </div>
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So you never know. </div>
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The path does not look good for Djokovic. But one thing he has in his favour is that unlike Federer, there is not a Djokovic around about to come into his peak. </div>
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The only other slam winners (besides Fed and Nadal) playing the tour at the moment are Wawrinka, Murray, Del Potro and Cilic. They are aged 31, 29, 28 and 28 respectively. </div>
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Dimitrov is 25 and looks to be ready to make the leap to champion, but he is a very long way from being one of the 5 best players of the open era (something that Djokovic is legitimately in the discussion of). </div>
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But that said, slams don't need to only be won by one person, or split between two (or a "Big 4"). Maybe Dominic Thiem (aged 23) will begin his rise to the top, or Sasha Zverev (still only 19) or Kygios (21) or maybe Tomic can turn things around (at 24 and ranked 33, there's still time to avoid "journeyman" status, but less than there once was).</div>
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My gut is that we're about to enter an era were having 3 or 4 different winners and 6 or 7 different finalists in the slams each year is not uncommon - a bit like the period from 1996 to 2003. </div>
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But then, who knows. I'm the guy who said he was going to stop caring about Federer in 2009. </div>
Greg Jerichohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04956402439870441083noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8434369190746987531.post-27643497176961301702016-01-18T09:59:00.001+11:002017-01-31T23:00:37.217+11:00The lost generation of men’s tennis: or where are the freaks?My favourite men’s tennis bit of trivia is that Bernard Tomic is closer in
age to Novak Djokovic than Djokovic is to Roger Federer. <br />
<br />
Tomic is 23, was born in October 1992; Djokovic is 28, was born in May 1987
and is 5 years and 5 months older than Tomic; Federer is 34, was born in August
1981 is 5 years and 9 months older than Djokovic. <br />
<br />
I like it because it reminds me why whenever Federer is asked about his
favourite or toughest opponent he invariably talks about three generations of
players – those who where there when he arrived, like Sampras and Agassi, those
who arrived at the same time as he did – Hewitt, Safin and Roddick – and then he
mentions Nadal and Djokovic (Nadal is 4 years and 6 months younger than
Federer).<br />
<br />
We think of Djokovic and Federer as peers in a way which we would never think
of Djokovic and Tomic. <br />
<br />
That Djokovic and Federer, although separated by nearly 6 years, have become
perhaps the greatest rivalry in the history of professional men’s tennis says a
great deal about both. That Federer has been able to keep playing as well as he
has for so long is amazing, and that Djokovic began playing as well as he did so
early is worth remembering when valuing his greatness. <br />
<br />
Remember as Djokovic begins his quest for a 6th Australian Open that he won
his first title 8 years ago in 2008. He was 21, and it was no real shock. Sure
he upset Federer in the semis, but Federer was suffering glandular fever and
Djokovic even then was far too good to pass up an opportunity to beat a wounded
Federer. <br />
<br />
But Djokovic was the 3rd seed at the time, had lost to Federer in the
previous year’s US Open and made the semi finals of both the French Open and
Wimbledon in 2007. He was already very good, even if he was almost more known
for his ability to impersonate other players than his tennis ability:<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/xYA_7RUSarU" width="420"></iframe><br />
<br />
And yet now no one expects 21 year olds to win. <br />
<br />
And the usual talk is that, well the game has changed, and older players have
an advantage because the physicality of the sport etc etc. <br />
<br />
Bollocks I say. <br />
<br />
In my view, Federer, Nadal, Djokovic are better than the usual level of
players who dominate the circuit for periods (usually 3-5 years), and the
players a few years younger than Djokovic are just not good enough.<br />
<br />
Federer, Nadal and Djokovic are freaks, those who are a few years younger
than Djokovic are not. <br />
<br />
***<br />
This year, for the second year in a row my summer holidays ended with a trip
to Brisbane to watch the Brisbane International tennis tournament.<br />
<br />
As with last year, we went to see Federer. Although to be fair, we also went
because we knew there was a decent field assembled. <br />
<br />
I am admittedly a Federer fanatic, but I don’t have a great deal of need to
see him play an exhibition, qasi paid practice event like the Fast4 silliness,
or the pretend importance of the Hopman Cup. Always know, if it’s not for
ranking points it doesn’t count. (and alas it would seem for some players, even
when it is for points, <a href="http://www.buzzfeed.com/heidiblake/the-tennis-racket?bffbuknews&utm_term=.qjn8QQ4wl#.shrzqqdWm">it
doesn’t count</a>)<br />
<br />
The Brisbane International is truly an event worth going to if you are a
tennis fan. You are close to the play, the centre court is excellent – most of
the crowd is in the shade for most of the day – and the field is very good. The
women’s field this year was to be excellent, but was hit by a number of
withdrawals. <br />
<br />
Last year we saw Federer annihilate James Duckworth 6-0 6-1. It was great to
be able to say we saw him play (and my daughter got an autograph) but it also
felt rather hollow – like an exhibition. <br />
In the semi finals last year he took care of Grigor Dimitrov with relative
ease and then beat Milos Raonic in the final in 3 tight sets. <br />
<br />
Those two players are always interesting to watch because they, with Japan’s
Kai Nishikori, have been a for a few years now been considered the next in line.
<br />
<br />
This year we saw Federer play Dimitrov in the quarter finals and it was as
enjoyable a match to watch as any tennis fan could ask for. The shot making was
exciting, the play interesting – lots of net play as well as baseline rallies,
and the result (for at least me) perfect – Federer winning in 3. <br />
<br />
My daughter also got another Federer autograph (he signed probably 30-40 of
them after his match, great stuff). <br />
<br />
It is interesting that the two were playing in the quarters this year. <br />
<br />
The reason is that last year Dimitrov was ranked 11 in the world and the 4th
seed, this year he was number 28 in the world and unseeded.<br />
<br />
So while he improved on last year by taking a set off Federer, his lower
ranking indicates that he has gone backwards. <br />
<br />
And in tennis the ranking never lies. <br />
<br />
Federer in the post-game interview talked about Dimitrov having a great
career ahead of him etc etc, not mentioning that when he was Dimitrov’s age of
24 year and 8 months, Federer had already won 7 grand slam titles. <br />
<br />
Federer then faced Dominic Thiem in the semis. Thiem is among my favourite of
the young breed. Federer dealt with him with little ado – 6-1 6-4 –and then in
the post game interview he talked about how Thiem had a great career ahead etc
etc and failed to note that when he was Thiem’s age of 22 years and 4 months he
had already won 2 grand slam titles:<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiY_Ktgwx1A9nauPcFMZ5lLLbwDPSPuGydLmewwHbGx0FfeM3OY2gzNPLWV0JAlVxrKzC0cKVP4SOQvoQ0f-_nhokw0FtD3vWZ5mOvFxaxHAhAohA19sbchqkwAwjhH-wph5Hbfeg6OOP1c/s1600/Tennis+age.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="350" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiY_Ktgwx1A9nauPcFMZ5lLLbwDPSPuGydLmewwHbGx0FfeM3OY2gzNPLWV0JAlVxrKzC0cKVP4SOQvoQ0f-_nhokw0FtD3vWZ5mOvFxaxHAhAohA19sbchqkwAwjhH-wph5Hbfeg6OOP1c/s640/Tennis+age.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
In the final Raonic met Federer playing like a man who had been suffering
from the flu and who was playing for his 4th straight day in the Brisbane heat
(which of course he had been). <br />
<br />
It takes nothing away from Raonic who despatched Federer with ruthless
efficiency. Winning sport is about being physically able to do it. And if you
are unable – for whatever reason – well that’s just tough. <br />
<br />
But it does make it tougher to judge whether Raonic has improved on last year
(or Federer has declined) because clearly Federer was labouring with an unusual
illness, so the comparison is skewed. <br />
<br />
That Raonic last year was ranked number 8 in the world, and this year he was
14 suggests he hasn’t improved.<br />
<br />
In the post game interview Federer noted that Raonic had a great future etc
etc and failed to note that when he was Raonic’s age of 25 (his birthday is on
27 December) he had won 9 grand slam titles. <br />
It is evidence of the bizarre world of men’s tennis that Raonic, who is just
3 1/2 years younger than Djokovic, is considered less of a peer of Djokovic than
Djokovic is of Federer’s.<br />
<br />
And it goes to the question of whether there is a lost generation of male
tennis players – players who will never get to number 1 because they were unable
to crack the Djokovic, Nadal, Federer code, and who get overtaken by the younger
ones of which Tomic and Thiem represent the elder stage, and players 21 years
and under such as Lucas Pouille, Nick Kyrgios, Borna Coric, Thanasi Kokkinakis
and Alexander Zverev represent the younger stage.<br />
<br />
When we look at the history of the ATP tour, only 25 players have reached
number 1, and only 16 have been Number 1 at the end of the year (remember that
when you hear anyone suggest Lleyton Hewitt, who was number 1 at the end of both
2001 and 2002, wasn’t that great). <br />
<br />
Jimmy Connors was the first of those 25 players who really hadn’t had a
career or any note prior to the ATP forming in 1972. <br />
<br />
If we look at the successive dates of birth of the number ones from him (he
was also the first born after WWII) we see that there is a pretty regular
progression. <br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQ6YyM1wfe2DBVXQj348tsV9m9guUqM_BbQAcnZ0BxZxE5QN5o-ctTzrBF2yolU-_4oslrRNWLSfh2bwf5gPB7smXvl6fl7uEnP8RowjKuxswViZaoQWoa6Jbkap0cBF6LFyYFlM8qmz87/s1600/DOB.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="363" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQ6YyM1wfe2DBVXQj348tsV9m9guUqM_BbQAcnZ0BxZxE5QN5o-ctTzrBF2yolU-_4oslrRNWLSfh2bwf5gPB7smXvl6fl7uEnP8RowjKuxswViZaoQWoa6Jbkap0cBF6LFyYFlM8qmz87/s640/DOB.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
There are occasions where the next player to reach number 1 is older than the
previous player – but mostly the number 1 is succeeded by someone younger.<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEioHN6qBE_bYry3fJPdo-MYJYIgrsoU25U-VsNG-ROmpqdpn7vGSFZw3Z61_XTnaj9DMy9uqrNLcXuuWqv4shvu1lW6BN7NPB2w80U3VOcLQ-FkpxkZzF6zPuIWl0WWGvD9ZyfALaTfFxwn/s1600/Diff+age.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="386" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEioHN6qBE_bYry3fJPdo-MYJYIgrsoU25U-VsNG-ROmpqdpn7vGSFZw3Z61_XTnaj9DMy9uqrNLcXuuWqv4shvu1lW6BN7NPB2w80U3VOcLQ-FkpxkZzF6zPuIWl0WWGvD9ZyfALaTfFxwn/s640/Diff+age.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
On average the latest number 1 is 1 year and 7 months younger than was the
previous person to attain the pinnacle. <br />
<br />
Thus on average the next player to achieve the number 1 ranking would be
expected to have been born around September-December 1988, and thus be now aged
27.<br />
<br />
But when we look of the ages of the players when they first became number one
since Jimmy Connors we see that only one player – Thomas Muster – has been older
than 27 when he first became number 1:<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFA8lWJuoqiuHVOfFGYD9AcGrOagpqjra6Ja1C_KcwFtAx8BPmuLyrD4CjYY7EdTct2lU7Bebl3AofkgeOr3aZhBw4hfbXyfeu-E-u0sEeth3DZKMZE_hJ6CpDXjXlij9FJc_1IcgpkKnW/s1600/age+on+number+1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="330" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFA8lWJuoqiuHVOfFGYD9AcGrOagpqjra6Ja1C_KcwFtAx8BPmuLyrD4CjYY7EdTct2lU7Bebl3AofkgeOr3aZhBw4hfbXyfeu-E-u0sEeth3DZKMZE_hJ6CpDXjXlij9FJc_1IcgpkKnW/s640/age+on+number+1.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
The average age of players when they become number 1 is 23 years and 1 month
– just a bit younger than Bernard Tomic is now. <br />
<br />
On a best case scenario the quickest Milos Raonic could get to number 1 would
be for him to go on a tear, win the Australian Open, win at least one of the
Masters events in the USA in March, go well on the clay courts and French Open
and then win Wimbledon (and even that would rest on Djokovic doing poorly). That
would have him as number 1 at the age of 25 1/2 years – only Muster and Patrick
Rafter would have been older.<br />
<br />
Now Rafter was a great player. His career is one envied by 99.9% of people
ever to pick up a tennis racquet. But he was number 1 for a week. He hardly
dominated his era; he was at the top in somewhat of a nether period of men’s
tennis. That time when Sampras was no longer at his peak, Agassi had come back,
but there was also a fair jumble of players at or near the top.<br />
It was a period defined by a lack of domination. <br />
<br />
Mostly the tour is dominated by 3 or 4 players of around the same/similar
age. <br />
<br />
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 248px;" unselectable="on">
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<col style="mso-width-alt: 5778; mso-width-source: userset; width: 119pt;" width="158"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 3254; mso-width-source: userset; width: 67pt;" width="89"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;">
<td height="20" style="vertical-align: bottom;" width="158"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Player</span></span></td>
<td style="vertical-align: bottom;" width="89"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Date of birth</span></span></td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="20" style="background-color: yellow; vertical-align: bottom;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Jimmy
Connors</span></span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66" style="vertical-align: bottom;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Sep-1952</span></span></td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="20" style="background-color: yellow; vertical-align: bottom;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Bjorn
Borg</span></span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66" style="vertical-align: bottom;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Jun-1956</span></span></td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;">
<td class="xl68" height="20" style="background-color: #dbe5f1; vertical-align: bottom;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">John
McEnroe</span></span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66" style="vertical-align: bottom;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Feb-1959</span></span></td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;">
<td class="xl68" height="20" style="background-color: #dbe5f1; vertical-align: bottom;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Ivan
Lendl</span></span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66" style="vertical-align: bottom;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Mar-1960</span></span></td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;">
<td class="xl70" height="20" style="background-color: #fde9d9; vertical-align: bottom;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Mats
Wilander</span></span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66" style="vertical-align: bottom;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Aug-1964</span></span></td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;">
<td class="xl70" height="20" style="background-color: #fde9d9; vertical-align: bottom;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Stefan
Edberg</span></span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66" style="vertical-align: bottom;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Jan-1966</span></span></td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;">
<td class="xl70" height="20" style="background-color: #fde9d9; vertical-align: bottom;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Boris
Becker</span></span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66" style="vertical-align: bottom;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Nov-1967</span></span></td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;">
<td class="xl69" height="20" style="background-color: #eaf1dd; vertical-align: bottom;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Jim
Courier</span></span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66" style="vertical-align: bottom;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Aug-1970</span></span></td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;">
<td class="xl69" height="20" style="background-color: #eaf1dd; vertical-align: bottom;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Pete
Sampras</span></span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66" style="vertical-align: bottom;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Aug-1971</span></span></td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;">
<td class="xl69" height="20" style="background-color: #eaf1dd; vertical-align: bottom;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Andre
Agassi</span></span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66" style="vertical-align: bottom;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Apr-1970</span></span></td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;">
<td class="xl70" height="20" style="background-color: #fde9d9; vertical-align: bottom;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Thomas
Muster</span></span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66" style="vertical-align: bottom;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Oct-1967</span></span></td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;">
<td class="xl71" height="20" style="background-color: #f2f2f2; vertical-align: bottom;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Marcelo
Rios</span></span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66" style="vertical-align: bottom;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Dec-1975</span></span></td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;">
<td class="xl71" height="20" style="background-color: #f2f2f2; vertical-align: bottom;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Carlos
Moya</span></span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66" style="vertical-align: bottom;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Aug-1976</span></span></td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;">
<td class="xl71" height="20" style="background-color: #f2f2f2; vertical-align: bottom;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Yevgeny
Kafelnikov</span></span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66" style="vertical-align: bottom;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Feb-1974</span></span></td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;">
<td class="xl69" height="20" style="background-color: #eaf1dd; vertical-align: bottom;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Patrick
Rafter</span></span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66" style="vertical-align: bottom;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Dec-1972</span></span></td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;">
<td class="xl67" height="20" style="background-color: #ddd9c3; vertical-align: bottom;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Marat
Safin</span></span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66" style="vertical-align: bottom;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Jan-1980</span></span></td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;">
<td class="xl71" height="20" style="background-color: #f2f2f2; vertical-align: bottom;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Gustavo
Kuerten</span></span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66" style="vertical-align: bottom;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Sep-1976</span></span></td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;">
<td class="xl67" height="20" style="background-color: #ddd9c3; vertical-align: bottom;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Lleyton
Hewitt</span></span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66" style="vertical-align: bottom;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Feb-1981</span></span></td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;">
<td class="xl67" height="20" style="background-color: #ddd9c3; vertical-align: bottom;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Juan Carlos
Ferrero</span></span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66" style="vertical-align: bottom;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Feb-1980</span></span></td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;">
<td class="xl67" height="20" style="background-color: #ddd9c3; vertical-align: bottom;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Andy
Roddick</span></span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66" style="vertical-align: bottom;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Aug-1982</span></span></td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;">
<td class="xl67" height="20" style="background-color: #ddd9c3; vertical-align: bottom;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Roger
Federer</span></span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66" style="vertical-align: bottom;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Aug-1981</span></span></td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;">
<td class="xl72" height="20" style="background-color: #b6dde8; vertical-align: bottom;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Rafael
Nadal</span></span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66" style="vertical-align: bottom;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Jun-1986</span></span></td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;">
<td class="xl72" height="20" style="background-color: #b6dde8; vertical-align: bottom;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Novak
Djokovic</span></span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66" style="vertical-align: bottom;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">May-1987</span></span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
There’s always a bit of bleeding over in eras – Borg and Connors into McEnroe
and Lendl’s; Lendl into Wilander, Edberg and Becker’s, Edger and Becker into
Courier, Sampras and Agassi’s etc etc<br />
And generally you see gaps: 3 years to McEnroe, 4 years to Wilander, 3 years
to Courier, 4-5 years from Agassi to Kafelnikov-Rios etc or just 3 years if you
include Rafter among the Sampras-Agassi era, then 4 years to Safin and Carlos
Ferrero – the first of the Federer contemporaries to make it. <br />
<br />
So this is where my thoughts on the lost generation of tennis players occurs.
Nadal and Djokovic (throw in Murray, who will likely never get to number 1) is
an era. Federer definitely bleeds into it, but you would expect given tennis
history for there now to be a bit of a jump to a new era – a jump of 3-4 years.
<br />
<br />
That jump would take you straight to Raonic and those such as Dimitrov and
Nishikori, but the jump would occur to when they are already somewhat aged
tennis players. <br />
<br />
I actually think Raonic could win the Australian Open. He has an excellent
draw, would have to beat Wawrinka in the quarters and Nadal in the semi and I
think he has the game to do it. <br />
<br />
But it is unlikely, even if he were to do that, and even if he were to go on
and win another slam (surely Wimbledon or the US Open), for him to really stamp
out a new era. <br />
<br />
It seems much more likely we are to see a late 1990s period, where no one
utterly dominates – even if perhaps Djokovic does enough to stay Number 1 at the
end of the year for another couple years. <br />
<br />
There is no reason to think that peaking in tennis now is something that only
can happen at an older age. Sure you need to be stronger, but Nat Fyfe was 23
last year; is anyone thinking he needed to get a bit older before he could match
it with the mature men? But yeah, he’s a freak. <br />
<br />
Sure technology has allowed older players to stay good for longer; but Jordan
Speith won the US Masters and US Open at the age of 21. And yes, he’s a freak –
but that is the point. Federer, Nadal, Djokovic were all freaks, so were
Sampras, Agassi, Lendl, McEnroe, Becker, Edberg, Connors, Borg…<br />
<br />
You don’t say the same of Raonic, Dimitrov, Nishikori etc. <br />
<br />
I wonder if Federer – now the very elder statesman of the game – realises
this, and perhaps slightly wonders if it will affect his legacy as the greatest
of all time. <br />
<br />
He has 17 slams. It is unlikely he’ll add to it. His best chances were in the
2014 US Open, and last year’s Wimbledon and US Open. In both tournaments he
played his best matches in the semi finals, and in both he hit Djokovic in the
final, and Djokovic was just too good. <br />
<br />
Federer didn’t play his best in either final, but that was mostly because
Djokovic wouldn't let him play his best, and Federer couldn’t stop Djokovic from
playing his. <br />
<br />
Djokovic now has 10 slams and is a legitimate entry in the debate of best 5
players ever in the ATP era; by the end of his career he is a big chance to be
debated as the greatest of all time. <br />
<br />
He might not get to Federer’s 17 titles, and he is an outside chance to break
Federer’s 302 weeks at number 1 (he needs another 121 weeks) but neither record
is impossible.<br />
<br />
The barrier to Djokovic reaching Federer’s records is not Nadal or Murray or
Wawrinka but the young brigade. <br />
<br />
Two weeks ago, Federer when talking about Bernard Tomic’s ambition to get to
the top 10, said “he's been good, but then top 10 is another story. The year is
not just one month long or one week long. It's 52 weeks. It's every day”. In effect - stop talking, start doing.<br />
<br />
And that’s just to be in the top 10 – the current Number 10 is on 2,635
ranking points – Djokovic is on 16,790, and winning a Grand Slam gets you 2,000
points. <br />
<br />
Since Connors took over the number 1 ranking from John Newcombe, there has
been a new person reach number 1 for the first time every 1 year and 8 months.
<br />
<br />
It has now been 4 1/2 year since Djokovic became the 25th player to reach
number 1. If we push that out to June – which would be about the earliest
someone new could take over, we’re at 5 years – the second longest wait. <br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg15D2trFk9ziAfGp7dZmpbmH47u8lYO7xkfv-oWmwIBthzabNZLR8UBeW8kVH5cL2hQuQ55-ehF7av1jXSGXiL4HOp1n2nfklU_YGo69djjl91gCEj54xDm0x3PeJivlvLpcX8PyxxRJ3A/s1600/Wait.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="386" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg15D2trFk9ziAfGp7dZmpbmH47u8lYO7xkfv-oWmwIBthzabNZLR8UBeW8kVH5cL2hQuQ55-ehF7av1jXSGXiL4HOp1n2nfklU_YGo69djjl91gCEj54xDm0x3PeJivlvLpcX8PyxxRJ3A/s640/Wait.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
So who will be the next one? <br />
<br />
Raonic would be the best bet. He has a big game, but it would require a big
step up. He has only made the Quarter Final or better at a grand slam 3 times;
he has only reached the final of a Masters event twice. <br />
<br />
And time is not on his side. <br />
<br />
Tomic is 2 years younger than he, and he is making good strides. Last year in
Brisbane I watched Tomic lose to Nishikori in straight sets – the first set he
lost 6-0 and the word “try” was not a descriptor you would have worn out using;
he barely looked like he wanted to be there. <br />
<br />
This year we again saw the two play and the difference was stark. Gone was
the lack-lustre movement, and his forehand had changed from being one
reminiscent of a stroke hit by someone almost seemingly too bored to bother, to
one where effort was visible, and power evident but which still had his
exquisite timing. <br />
<br />
He won in 3, and then lost to Raonic in a tight 2 tie break sets. It all
looked good. <br />
<br />
And then he went to Sydney and pulled out of his quarter final citing food
poisoning. <br />
<br />
Please. <br />
<br />
It merely reinforced what Federer had said just a week earlier – you gotta
turn up week in week out, day in day out. <br />
<br />
The tour is a god awful grind. You don’t get to number 1 except by turning up
and winning week in week out. <br />
<br />
Tomic has the talent; but he is a danger of also being taken over by younger
players if he is not careful – Kokkinakis showed in the French Open last year,
that the younger Australians certainly don’t hold him in awe on the court. <br />
<br />
Dimitrov is one who I would love to see make it. I love his game, but again
he teases – he can play well, and then not. The top line consistency is not
there.<br />
<br />
And it has nothing to do with being stopped by Djokovic or Nadal or
Federer.<br />
<br />
Yes he lost to Federer in Brisbane but he then lost to Victor Troicki in the
Sydney final the following week – after having beaten him in Brisbane. <br />
<br />
Federer in Brisbane noted of Dimitrov’s win over Troicki (which meant the two
would play each other) that they were the type of matches Dimitrov needed to win
if he wanted to get back into the top 10. <br />
<br />
Troicki is a 29yo journeyman – a good journeyman, but one who has never made
a grand slam quarter final. Dimitrov should not be losing to him in finals –
especially when winning the first set 6-2.<br />
<br />
But for the next fortnight it is hard to go past Djokovic. His game is just
perfect for the Australian Open courts. <br />
<br />
Federer has a very tough draw. After Basilashivili in the first round, he
then will likely have to beat Dolgopolov (another one of those “young” players
who is now 26, but ranked 36, so definitely a tough unseeded opponent) ,
Dimitrov, then Thiem or Goffin (another young player, who is now 25yo), then
Berdych or Cilic, then Djokovic, just to get to the final. <br />
<br />
Tough ask for an old bloke. <br />
<br />
<br />
I would love to see someone new step up – even if it is someone “old” like
Stan Wawrinka did in 2014. Even better though, would be for someone young –
someone of whom people might start saying, cripes, he’s a bit of a freak.Greg Jerichohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04956402439870441083noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8434369190746987531.post-86203453087937770392014-09-12T13:52:00.001+10:002014-09-12T16:33:28.831+10:00U2 releases “Songs of Innocence”<p>Before I start, I think we should all pause to honour the many brave individuals who have taken to social media in the past few days to let everyone know they hate U2. Swimming against the tide is a very tough thing to do; I just hope their reputations can recover. But we should thank them as well – it’s not often social media in 2014 can take you back to 1988. </p> <p>The reality is U2 have been hated for most of its existence. The period it went from being known by enough members of the public to then being hated was pretty short – perhaps from the time it took The Joshua Tree to sell squillions of records till the moment people saw the horrendous megalomaniacal mess that was Rattle and Hum.</p> <p>U2 have never been cool. The release of Achtung Baby in 1991 and its follow up Zooropa, plus the incredible Zoo TV Tour did give them a bit of a nudge towards coolness; but fortunately for all concerned, the release of Pop in 1997 allowed everyone to go back to hating them and not having to worry about such an opinion being out of whack. </p> <p>I’ve been a U2 fan for far too long really – since probably around 1984 when I think I first saw footage of them singing Sunday Bloody Sunday at Red Rocks. I was 12 at the time and not really a big enough consumer of music to be able to say I was all the way with U2. Back then I was just young enough to think Duran Duran’s The Reflex was about as good as music got. </p> <p>But within a year or so U2 was it for me and so it has remained. <a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-ay3GjI_ovpw/VBJuArXaDEI/AAAAAAAAMaU/jnO0-nmB_60/s1600-h/Songs%252520of%252520Innocence%25255B2%25255D.png"><img title="Songs of Innocence" style="border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; background-image: none; border-bottom-width: 0px; float: right; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin: 10px 0px 10px 5px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px; border-top-width: 0px" border="0" alt="Songs of Innocence" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-eohC72KpgtE/VBJuBvK14fI/AAAAAAAAMac/2h3j9fZ_xn0/Songs%252520of%252520Innocence_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="244" align="right" height="244"></a></p> <p>Back when they released their last album, I was someone who actually did blog and so I did a ranking of <a href="http://grogsgamut.blogspot.com.au/2009/02/u2-countdown.html">all the U2 albums</a>. It would have been perhaps correct at the time to suggest U2 were done and they would be able to retire to the Greatest Hits concert circuit. </p> <p>And yet the release of Songs of Innocence as part of the iPhone 6 launch sees them actually more relevant than they were 5 years ago. </p> <p>Of course such a statement is absurd: U2 are <strong>not</strong> relevant. We know this because in the approximately 7,846 instant reviews of the album on every single newspaper/magazine/news website we have been told how they are not at all relevant.</p> <p>Judging this album is tough because of the way it was released. It’s free and inserted into your iTunes library whether you liked it or not. </p> <p>I can understand why some people don’t like that, though most of the objections are pretty stupid. The ones about privacy are easily the dumbest. I wonder if these people have ever had Windows automatically updated on their PC? How about apps on the iPhone, ever noticed how they also get automatically update now? Yes people, IT companies whose product you have agreed to use can change things on your computer. </p> <p>But perhaps the thing I have most liked on Twitter is people making jokes about worrying the person next to them on the bus might see their iPhone/iPod has a U2 album on it. </p> <p>Here’s a news flash, no one gives a shit about anyone’s record collection anymore. </p> <p>When I was at uni I knew a bloke who had an amazing LP collection. It was jaw-dropping the great and obscure albums he had, and it was a source of pride and respect. Now I probably have almost as many albums as he does – and if you subscribe to Spotfiy so do you.</p> <p>Sure everyone was given this album for free, but albums have lost pretty much all the currency they once had, and certainly your record collection has.</p> <p>You got an interesting album on your iPhone? Wow, how long did you have to go round town to find that? Oh I forgot, you just clicked “purchase”. Well done you. </p> <p>At this point I should acknowledge how old and get off my lawn I might sound – don’t worry in 15 years you’ll be saying the same about… err you know that band that is the biggest thing now… oh ok, not really. Bands like U2 don’t really exist anymore, unless they are carry overs from the 1990s. </p> <p>Heck in 20 years time music might no longer be what it is now. Surely some computer programmer is working on an app that takes all your favourite bands and mixes their songs together in this weird mesh and jumble that spits out a computer generated songs which people will at first think is a travesty and then find bizarrely seem to work. </p> <p>And bands like The Rolling Stones, U2, Led Zeppelin will make squillions from it. </p> <p>(If no one has thought of this, I’m claiming copyright here and now) </p> <p>At this point you can talk about how magnificent music is now, how we’re not reduced to the old mono-culture (geez, I loved using that word when I was young as well, it sounded like it meant something). And then we turn our eyes with glazed boredom to the charts and see it’s as mono-culture as it ever was. </p> <p>Wow, Taylor Swift, Redfoo, Nicki Minaj, G.R.L., Paloma Faith. Talk about the full gamut…</p> <p>As Redfoo said recently in response to his critics: </p> <blockquote> <p>“People write ‘His song is so annoying, it’s No.1, I hear it every day, I hate that guy’. Relax guys! They complain about me using autotune, when I bet there are 20 songs on their iTunes that use autotune.”</p></blockquote> <p>Well, quite. </p> <p>And so when we turn to reviews of U2 we find it has not just become a review of the album but a review of generations – perhaps in a way that has never occurred before.</p> <p>Let’s go back 20 years and think of reviews of The Rolling Stones’ Voodoo Lounge. </p> <p>I scarce wonder if anyone cared one way or the other – by this time even Rolling Stone magazine knew there was little interest in them. There was no need to tear them down to try and demonstrate how the younger generation had surpassed them – there was already U2 (already gettin’ a bit old), Nirvana, Pearl Jam, Radiohead, Rage Against the Machine etc etc. </p> <p>There was in fact still bands making rock albums that mattered. There aren’t anymore. That doesn’t mean there aren’t the occasional good rock albums but none really that are going to take over the world. </p> <p>And maybe that is good, but don’t blame my generation that the biggest concert acts are people who last wrote a good song before you were born.</p> <p>And look, it’s not all bad. You’ve got Kanye riding a motorcycle with Kim Kardashian – live it up!</p> <p>It’s not hard to then see the generational divide in the reviews of Songs of Innocence – mostly there are the oldies like <a href="http://www.rollingstone.com/music/albumreviews/u2-songs-of-innocence-20140911">David Fricke</a> for Rolling Stone who gave it 5 stars (even I think that’s a bit much), then there are the younger one’s who are wondering what the hell is this whole thing with 4 guys with guitars a bass and drums. And then there are those who seem above all just desperate to show they don’t like it.</p> <p>One of the best of these is from <a href="http://www.fasterlouder.com.au/features/40531/U2-Songs-of-Innocence-track-by-track-review">Elmo Keep</a>, and yet even in-between the fairly standard disparagements (yeah corporate band, yeah mention of Coldplay…) even she notes of “Songs for Someone” “that “This is kind of a great song”, and then of “Volcano” “This is also a pretty great” and of “Sleep like a baby tonight” “Where did this amazing Kate Bush song come from? Why isn’t there a whole record full of this stuff? Why isn’t there a whole record full of this stuff? Oh, there is, <em>Zooropa</em>.”</p> <p>And thus we get to it – the most common reaction from those who have grudgingly found songs they actually like on the album, but really (really) don’t want to have to admit it, the “regardless of anything, they’re not as good as they used to be” view. </p> <p>Well, yeah. Just how long have you been listening to music?</p> <p>No band in their 35th year is ever as good as they were in the 5th. </p> <p>It’s a bit like reading the commentary on Federer at Wimbledon and the US Open – the praise of his play, but the acknowledgment that he’s no longer the player he was from 2003-2007.</p> <p>Sportsmen and women have primes and so too do music acts. </p> <p>This doesn’t always have something to do with quality – it’s about that period where you can matter in a way that is never going to happen ever again. </p> <p>The Roger Federer of 2014 would likely beat the Roger Federer of 2005. That sounds absurd, but the reality is Federer is the number 2 player in the world – tennis has not gone backwards in quality, to stay at the top you need to keep improving. But no one is going to watch Federer play a match this year and think he is doing things with a tennis racquet that have never been done before. </p> <p>Music is similar. Popular music is and always will be a young person’s game. You need to make an impact before you are 30. I think some of the songs on Dylan’s most recent album are among his best – “Roll on John” is one of my all-time favourite Dylan tracks. But no one was thinking that song or album was going to change our world like any of his early work did. </p> <p>In fact an artist’s music, if it is going to make an impact, pretty much needs to do so within that artist’s first 8 to 9 years. </p> <p>U2 are a unique band. They are the same 4 guys who have been recording together now for 35 years. They haven’t had a member end up dead in a swimming pool or mysteriously choke on something that may or may not have been his own vomit. They haven’t lost a member who has had enough of touring. They haven’t decided to go their separate way because a lead member wants to explore different music. </p> <p>And yet while their longevity is unique, their pattern of making it big is not. </p> <p>Below is a chart of the yearly album releases of U2, The Beatles and The Rolling Stones. Due to size I couldn’t include more acts, but the full table <a href="http://cf.datawrapper.de/cBOt3/6/">is here</a>.</p> <p>From first release to last, The Beatles were run and done in 8 years. They were perhaps smart to end it then, because it is around the mark of when the decline generally begins. (My favourite bit of trivia – they were recording Rubber Soul <em>before</em> Help was even released, and on both albums only one song went for longer than 3 minutes, there’s something to be said for not mucking about)</p> <p>To keep making good music – music that will register in the cultural consciousness – is bloody hard once you enter your second decade of recording. </p> <table style="border-collapse: collapse; line-height: normal" cellpadding="1" width="643" border="2"> <colgroup> <col style="width: 64pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 3108" width="85"> <col style="width: 171pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 8338" width="228"> <col style="width: 281pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 13714" width="375"> <col style="width: 374pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 18249" width="499"> <tbody> <tr style="height: 20.1pt; mso-height-source: userset" height="26"> <td class="xl68" style="border-top: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-right: 1px" height="26" width="51" align="center"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt">Years</font></font></td> <td class="xl69" style="border-top: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="127"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#252525"><strong>U2</strong></font></font></td> <td class="xl70" style="border-top: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="221"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt"><strong>The Beatles</strong></font></font></td> <td class="xl70" style="border-top: windowtext 0.5pt solid; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="240"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt"><strong>The Rolling Stones</strong></font></font></td></tr> <tr style="height: 20.1pt; mso-height-source: userset" height="26"> <td class="xl68" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-right: 1px" height="26" width="54" align="center"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">1</font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="128"><a title="Boy (album)" style="background-image: none" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boy_(album)"><span style="text-decoration: ; font-family: ; mso-font-charset: 0"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">Boy (1980)</font></font></span></a></td> <td class="xl71" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="220"><a title="Please Please Me" style="background-image: none" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Please_Please_Me"><span style="font-family: ; mso-font-charset: 0"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">Please Please Me / With the Beatles (1963)</font></font></span></a></td> <td class="xl67" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="239"><font face="Arial"><font color="#000000"><font style="font-size: 12pt">The Rolling Stones</font><font class="font5"><font style="font-size: 12pt"> (1964)</font></font></font></font></td></tr> <tr style="height: 20.1pt; mso-height-source: userset" height="26"> <td class="xl68" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-right: 1px" height="26" width="56" align="center"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">2</font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="129"><a title="October (U2 album)" style="background-image: none" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_(U2_album)"><span style="text-decoration: ; font-family: ; mso-font-charset: 0"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">October (1981)</font></font></span></a></td> <td class="xl71" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="219"><a title="A Hard Day's Night (album)" style="background-image: none" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Hard_Day%27s_Night_(album)"><span style="font-family: ; mso-font-charset: 0"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">A Hard Day's Night / Beatles for Sale (1964)</font></font></span></a></td> <td class="xl67" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="237"><font face="Arial"><font color="#000000"><font style="font-size: 12pt">The Rolling Stones No. 2</font><font class="font5"><font style="font-size: 12pt"> / Out of Our Heads (1965)</font></font></font></font></td></tr> <tr style="height: 20.1pt; mso-height-source: userset" height="26"> <td class="xl68" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-right: 1px" height="26" width="58" align="center"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">3</font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="130"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl71" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="218"><a title="Help! (album)" style="background-image: none" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Help!_(album)"><span style="font-family: ; mso-font-charset: 0"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">Help! / Rubber Soul (1965)</font></font></span></a></td> <td class="xl67" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="235"><font face="Arial"><font color="#000000"><font style="font-size: 12pt">Aftermath</font><font class="font5"><font style="font-size: 12pt"> (1966, UK)</font><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"><font style="font-size: 12pt"> </font></span></font></font></font></td></tr> <tr style="height: 20.1pt; mso-height-source: userset" height="26"> <td class="xl68" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-right: 1px" height="26" width="59" align="center"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">4</font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="130"><a title="War (U2 album)" style="background-image: none" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_(U2_album)"><span style="text-decoration: ; font-family: ; mso-font-charset: 0"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">War (1983)</font></font></span></a></td> <td class="xl71" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="217"><a title="Revolver (Beatles album)" style="background-image: none" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revolver_(Beatles_album)"><span style="font-family: ; mso-font-charset: 0"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">Revolver (1966)</font></font></span></a></td> <td class="xl67" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="236"><font face="Arial"><font color="#000000"><font style="font-size: 12pt">Between the Buttons</font><font class="font5"><font style="font-size: 12pt"> / Their Satanic Majesties Request (1967)</font></font></font></font></td></tr> <tr style="height: 20.1pt; mso-height-source: userset" height="26"> <td class="xl68" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-right: 1px" height="26" width="61" align="center"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">5</font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="130"><a title="The Unforgettable Fire" style="background-image: none" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Unforgettable_Fire"><span style="text-decoration: ; font-family: ; mso-font-charset: 0"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">The Unforgettable Fire (1984)</font></font></span></a></td> <td class="xl71" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="217"><a title="Sgt. Pepper's Lonely Hearts Club Band" style="background-image: none" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sgt._Pepper%27s_Lonely_Hearts_Club_Band"><span style="font-family: ; mso-font-charset: 0"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">Sgt. Pepper's Lonely Hearts Club Band (1967)</font></font></span></a></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="235"><a title="Beggars Banquet" style="background-image: none" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beggars_Banquet"><span style="text-decoration: ; font-family: ; mso-font-charset: 0"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">Beggars Banquet (1968)</font></font></span></a></td></tr> <tr style="height: 20.1pt; mso-height-source: userset" height="26"> <td class="xl68" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-right: 1px" height="26" width="62" align="center"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">6</font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="130"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl71" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="216"><a title="The Beatles (album)" style="background-image: none" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Beatles_(album)"><span style="font-family: ; mso-font-charset: 0"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">"The White Album" (1968)</font></font></span></a></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="234"><a title="Let It Bleed" style="background-image: none" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Let_It_Bleed"><span style="text-decoration: ; font-family: ; mso-font-charset: 0"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">Let It Bleed (1969)</font></font></span></a></td></tr> <tr style="height: 20.1pt; mso-height-source: userset" height="26"> <td class="xl68" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-right: 1px" height="26" width="63" align="center"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">7</font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="130"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl71" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="216"><a title="Yellow Submarine (album)" style="background-image: none" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_Submarine_(album)"><span style="font-family: ; mso-font-charset: 0"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">Yellow Submarine / Abbey Road (1969)</font></font></span></a></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="234"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td></tr> <tr style="height: 20.1pt; mso-height-source: userset" height="26"> <td class="xl68" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-right: 1px" height="26" width="64" align="center"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">8</font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="130"><a title="The Joshua Tree" style="background-image: none" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Joshua_Tree"><span style="text-decoration: ; font-family: ; mso-font-charset: 0"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">The Joshua Tree (1987)</font></font></span></a></td> <td class="xl71" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="216"><a title="Let It Be" style="background-image: none" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Let_It_Be"><span style="font-family: ; mso-font-charset: 0"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">Let It Be (1970)</font></font></span></a></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="233"><a title="Sticky Fingers" style="background-image: none" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sticky_Fingers"><span style="text-decoration: ; font-family: ; mso-font-charset: 0"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">Sticky Fingers (1971)</font></font></span></a></td></tr> <tr style="height: 20.1pt; mso-height-source: userset" height="26"> <td class="xl68" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-right: 1px" height="26" width="65" align="center"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">9</font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="130"><a title="Rattle and Hum" style="background-image: none" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rattle_and_Hum"><span style="text-decoration: ; font-family: ; mso-font-charset: 0"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">Rattle and Hum (1988)</font></font></span></a></td> <td class="xl65" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="215"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="233"><a title="Exile on Main St." style="background-image: none" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exile_on_Main_St."><span style="text-decoration: ; font-family: ; mso-font-charset: 0"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">Exile on Main St. (1972)</font></font></span></a></td></tr> <tr style="height: 20.1pt; mso-height-source: userset" height="26"> <td class="xl68" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-right: 1px" height="26" width="66" align="center"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">10</font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="130"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl65" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="215"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="232"><a title="Goats Head Soup" style="background-image: none" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goats_Head_Soup"><span style="text-decoration: ; font-family: ; mso-font-charset: 0"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">Goats Head Soup (1973)</font></font></span></a></td></tr> <tr style="height: 20.1pt; mso-height-source: userset" height="26"> <td class="xl68" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-right: 1px" height="26" width="66" align="center"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">11</font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="130"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl65" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="215"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="232"><a title="It's Only Rock 'n Roll" style="background-image: none" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/It%27s_Only_Rock_%27n_Roll"><span style="text-decoration: ; font-family: ; mso-font-charset: 0"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">It's Only Rock 'n Roll (1974)</font></font></span></a></td></tr> <tr style="height: 20.1pt; mso-height-source: userset" height="26"> <td class="xl68" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-right: 1px" height="26" width="66" align="center"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">12</font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="130"><a title="Achtung Baby" style="background-image: none" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Achtung_Baby"><span style="text-decoration: ; font-family: ; mso-font-charset: 0"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">Achtung Baby (1991)</font></font></span></a></td> <td class="xl65" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="215"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="232"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td></tr> <tr style="height: 20.1pt; mso-height-source: userset" height="26"> <td class="xl68" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-right: 1px" height="26" width="66" align="center"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">13</font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="130"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl65" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="215"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="232"><a title="Black and Blue" style="background-image: none" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_and_Blue"><span style="text-decoration: ; font-family: ; mso-font-charset: 0"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">Black and Blue (1976)</font></font></span></a></td></tr> <tr style="height: 20.1pt; mso-height-source: userset" height="26"> <td class="xl68" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-right: 1px" height="26" width="66" align="center"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">14</font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="130"><a title="Zooropa" style="background-image: none" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zooropa"><span style="text-decoration: ; font-family: ; mso-font-charset: 0"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">Zooropa (1993)</font></font></span></a></td> <td class="xl65" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="215"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="232"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td></tr> <tr style="height: 20.1pt; mso-height-source: userset" height="26"> <td class="xl68" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-right: 1px" height="26" width="66" align="center"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">15</font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="130"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl65" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="215"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="232"><a title="Some Girls" style="background-image: none" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Some_Girls"><span style="text-decoration: ; font-family: ; mso-font-charset: 0"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">Some Girls (1978)</font></font></span></a></td></tr> <tr style="height: 20.1pt; mso-height-source: userset" height="26"> <td class="xl68" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-right: 1px" height="26" width="66" align="center"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">16</font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="130"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl65" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="215"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="232"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td></tr> <tr style="height: 20.1pt; mso-height-source: userset" height="26"> <td class="xl68" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-right: 1px" height="26" width="66" align="center"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">17</font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="130"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl65" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="215"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="232"><a title="Emotional Rescue" style="background-image: none" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emotional_Rescue"><span style="text-decoration: ; font-family: ; mso-font-charset: 0"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">Emotional Rescue (1980)</font></font></span></a></td></tr> <tr style="height: 20.1pt; mso-height-source: userset" height="26"> <td class="xl68" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-right: 1px" height="26" width="66" align="center"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">18</font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="130"><a title="Pop (U2 album)" style="background-image: none" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pop_(U2_album)"><span style="text-decoration: ; font-family: ; mso-font-charset: 0"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">Pop (1997)</font></font></span></a></td> <td class="xl65" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="215"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="232"><a title="Tattoo You" style="background-image: none" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tattoo_You"><span style="text-decoration: ; font-family: ; mso-font-charset: 0"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">Tattoo You (1981)</font></font></span></a></td></tr> <tr style="height: 20.1pt; mso-height-source: userset" height="26"> <td class="xl68" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-right: 1px" height="26" width="66" align="center"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">19</font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="130"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl65" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="215"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="232"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td></tr> <tr style="height: 20.1pt; mso-height-source: userset" height="26"> <td class="xl68" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-right: 1px" height="26" width="66" align="center"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">20</font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="130"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl65" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="215"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="232"><a title="Undercover (The Rolling Stones album)" style="background-image: none" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Undercover_(The_Rolling_Stones_album)"><span style="text-decoration: ; font-family: ; mso-font-charset: 0"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">Undercover (1983)</font></font></span></a></td></tr> <tr style="height: 20.1pt; mso-height-source: userset" height="26"> <td class="xl68" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-right: 1px" height="26" width="66" align="center"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">21</font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="130"><a title="All That You Can't Leave Behind" style="background-image: none" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All_That_You_Can%27t_Leave_Behind"><span style="text-decoration: ; font-family: ; mso-font-charset: 0"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">All That You Can't Leave Behind (2000)</font></font></span></a></td> <td class="xl65" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="215"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="232"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td></tr> <tr style="height: 20.1pt; mso-height-source: userset" height="26"> <td class="xl68" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-right: 1px" height="26" width="66" align="center"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">22</font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="130"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl65" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="215"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="232"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td></tr> <tr style="height: 20.1pt; mso-height-source: userset" height="26"> <td class="xl68" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-right: 1px" height="26" width="66" align="center"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">23</font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="130"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl65" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="215"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="232"><a title="Dirty Work (The Rolling Stones album)" style="background-image: none" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dirty_Work_(The_Rolling_Stones_album)"><span style="text-decoration: ; font-family: ; mso-font-charset: 0"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">Dirty Work (1986)</font></font></span></a></td></tr> <tr style="height: 20.1pt; mso-height-source: userset" height="26"> <td class="xl68" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-right: 1px" height="26" width="66" align="center"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">24</font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="130"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl65" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="215"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="232"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td></tr> <tr style="height: 20.1pt; mso-height-source: userset" height="26"> <td class="xl68" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-right: 1px" height="26" width="66" align="center"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">25</font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="130"><a title="How to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb" style="background-image: none" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/How_to_Dismantle_an_Atomic_Bomb"><span style="text-decoration: ; font-family: ; mso-font-charset: 0"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">How to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb (2004)</font></font></span></a></td> <td class="xl65" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="215"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="232"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td></tr> <tr style="height: 20.1pt; mso-height-source: userset" height="26"> <td class="xl68" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-right: 1px" height="26" width="66" align="center"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">26</font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="130"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl65" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="215"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="232"><a title="Steel Wheels" style="background-image: none" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steel_Wheels"><span style="text-decoration: ; font-family: ; mso-font-charset: 0"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">Steel Wheels (1989)</font></font></span></a></td></tr> <tr style="height: 20.1pt; mso-height-source: userset" height="26"> <td class="xl68" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-right: 1px" height="26" width="66" align="center"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">27</font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="130"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl65" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="215"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="232"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td></tr> <tr style="height: 20.1pt; mso-height-source: userset" height="26"> <td class="xl68" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-right: 1px" height="26" width="66" align="center"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">28</font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="130"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl65" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="215"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="232"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td></tr> <tr style="height: 20.1pt; mso-height-source: userset" height="26"> <td class="xl68" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-right: 1px" height="26" width="66" align="center"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">29</font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="130"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl65" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="215"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="232"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td></tr> <tr style="height: 20.1pt; mso-height-source: userset" height="26"> <td class="xl68" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-right: 1px" height="26" width="66" align="center"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">30</font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="130"><a title="No Line on the Horizon" style="background-image: none" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_Line_on_the_Horizon"><span style="text-decoration: ; font-family: ; mso-font-charset: 0"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">No Line on the Horizon (2009)</font></font></span></a></td> <td class="xl65" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="215"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="232"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td></tr> <tr style="height: 20.1pt; mso-height-source: userset" height="26"> <td class="xl68" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-right: 1px" height="26" width="66" align="center"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">31</font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="130"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl65" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="215"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="232"><a title="Voodoo Lounge" style="background-image: none" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voodoo_Lounge"><span style="text-decoration: ; font-family: ; mso-font-charset: 0"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">Voodoo Lounge (1994)</font></font></span></a></td></tr> <tr style="height: 20.1pt; mso-height-source: userset" height="26"> <td class="xl68" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-right: 1px" height="26" width="66" align="center"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">32</font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="130"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl65" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="215"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="232"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td></tr> <tr style="height: 20.1pt; mso-height-source: userset" height="26"> <td class="xl68" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-right: 1px" height="26" width="66" align="center"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">33</font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="130"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl65" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="215"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="232"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td></tr> <tr style="height: 20.1pt; mso-height-source: userset" height="26"> <td class="xl68" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-right: 1px" height="26" width="66" align="center"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">34</font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="130"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl65" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="215"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="232"><a title="Bridges to Babylon" style="background-image: none" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bridges_to_Babylon"><span style="text-decoration: ; font-family: ; mso-font-charset: 0"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">Bridges to Babylon (1997)</font></font></span></a></td></tr> <tr style="height: 20.1pt; mso-height-source: userset" height="26"> <td class="xl68" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-right: 1px" height="26" width="66" align="center"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">35</font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="130"><a title="Songs of Innocence (album)" style="background-image: none" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Songs_of_Innocence_(album)"><span style="text-decoration: ; font-family: ; mso-font-charset: 0"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">Songs of Innocence (2014)</font></font></span></a></td> <td class="xl65" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="215"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="232"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td></tr> <tr style="height: 20.1pt; mso-height-source: userset" height="26"> <td class="xl68" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-right: 1px" height="26" width="66" align="center"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">36</font></font></td> <td class="xl65" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="130"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl65" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="215"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="232"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td></tr> <tr style="height: 20.1pt; mso-height-source: userset" height="26"> <td class="xl68" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-right: 1px" height="26" width="66" align="center"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">37</font></font></td> <td class="xl65" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="130"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl65" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="215"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="232"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td></tr> <tr style="height: 20.1pt; mso-height-source: userset" height="26"> <td class="xl68" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-right: 1px" height="26" width="66" align="center"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">38</font></font></td> <td class="xl65" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="130"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl65" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="215"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="232"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td></tr> <tr style="height: 20.1pt; mso-height-source: userset" height="26"> <td class="xl68" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-right: 1px" height="26" width="66" align="center"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">39</font></font></td> <td class="xl65" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="130"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl65" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="215"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="232"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td></tr> <tr style="height: 20.1pt; mso-height-source: userset" height="26"> <td class="xl68" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-right: 1px" height="26" width="66" align="center"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">40</font></font></td> <td class="xl65" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="130"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl65" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="215"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="232"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td></tr> <tr style="height: 20.1pt; mso-height-source: userset" height="26"> <td class="xl68" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-right: 1px" height="26" width="66" align="center"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">41</font></font></td> <td class="xl65" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="130"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl65" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="215"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="232"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td></tr> <tr style="height: 20.1pt; mso-height-source: userset" height="26"> <td class="xl68" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-right: 1px" height="26" width="66" align="center"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">42</font></font></td> <td class="xl65" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="130"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl65" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="215"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000"> </font></font></td> <td class="xl66" style="border-top: medium none; border-right: windowtext 0.5pt solid; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; border-left: medium none; padding-right: 1px" width="234"><a title="A Bigger Bang" style="background-image: none" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Bigger_Bang"><span style="text-decoration: ; font-family: ; mso-font-charset: 0"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 12pt" color="#000000">A Bigger Bang (2005)</font></font></span></a></td></tr></tbody></table> <p>Consider that by their 9th year, U2 were doing Rattle and Hum, having already permanently entered the music firmament in their 8th year with The Joshua Tree. </p> <p>By their 9th year The Rolling Stones were releasing what many consider their best – Exile on Main St. If the Stones had pulled up stumps right there, I seriously doubt anyone would care. What, we’ve lost “It’s only Rock’n’Roll if I like it”? Well that’s ok. No “Emotional Rescue”? Can I get a “hell yeah!”?</p> <p>If you go to the full chart you see by his 9th year Dylan was already putting out Self Portrait – his pinnacle of Highway 51 Revisited and Blonde and Blonde having come in his 4th and 5th years of recording. </p> <p>Pink Floyd’s 9th year saw Wish You Were Here released. Led Zeppelin were perhaps the fastest to get to their peak – getting out their first 4 albums in three years – although they were an odd band – forming as they did after all members had already done significant music elsewhere. </p> <p>REM released Out of Tine in their 9th year; Radiohead put out Amnesiac, and whatever you think of In Rainbows and other releases that came after, it’s hard to argue they haven’t declined in the cultural sphere since then.</p> <p>It’s easier somewhat for single artists – like Dylan – to keep going into their second decade, but even they need to make an impact early. Springsteen for example by his 9th year had put out Born to Run and Nebraska; similarly Bowie still had Heroes and Lodger to come, but by his 9th year had set his foundation as an artist that mattered with Hunky Dory, Ziggy Stardust and Diamond Dogs. </p> <p>Once you get past that first 9 years, yes you can put out good albums, but it becomes damn hard to make an impact. </p> <p>U2 did Achtung Baby in their 12th year and rather astonishingly All that You Can’t Leave Behind in the 21st. By that stage REM were putting out very forgettable albums like Reveal, Pink Floyd were putting out A Momentary Lapse of Reason, Springsteen was thinking Human Touch and Lucky Town were good ideas, and even someone like Madonna in her 21st year was trying her best with American Life. </p> <p>Everyone, band or artist, once they get to their 15 or 20th year is no longer generating new fans in the traditional sense. When I was in my teens I became a fan of the The Rolling Stones, but it wasn’t because I heard “Dirty Work” or “Undercover” that were being released at the time; it was because I came into contact with those songs they had released in their first 9 years. </p> <p>So it will be with U2. If any kids become fans of their music, it likely won’t be because of Songs of Innocence – it’ll be because they hear The Joshua Tree or War or The Unforgettable Fire</p> <p>It’s not surprising that U2 have declined in importance, it’s surprising they stayed relevant for as long as they did (have?)</p> <p>Much has been made of Apple using U2, and it saying something about their target audience. For me it says two things. Firstly that there is perhaps only one other band/artist that could have done it: Beyonce. Seriously think of anyone else who would have the impact – not just the masses and masses of instant reviews (for good or bad), but also in the media. </p> <p>And the way it was done shows that U2 are still actually trying. </p> <p>This is of course not the first time a computer company has made use of a band to launch a product. Microsoft launch Windows 95 with The Rolling Stones being paid a shirtload of money to use “Start me up”</p> <p>At the time The Stones were in their 32nd year (compared to U2’s now 35th) and they used a song that was 14 years old. It would be like if U2 was used to launch the iPhone 6 with “Beautiful Day”. </p> <p>Instead they put out a new album, and against all the odds it has music worth listening to.</p> <p>They haven’t turned into those bands who decide to tour playing some 20 year old record in its entirety or who like <a href="http://www.setlist.fm/setlist/the-rolling-stones/2014/tele2-arena-stockholm-sweden-5bc197dc.html">the Stones</a> pretty much just play greatest hits (great as those hits may be).</p> <p>They are a weird band, because their output is more like a single artist – like Springsteen who plays his greatest hits and whole albums, but also keep putting out new, and at times interesting, albums even if (yes) “they aren’t as good as they used to be”.</p> <p>And so to this album: what do I think? The past three days I have pretty much had it on repeat play, and I haven’t bothered to hit skip all that often – something I couldn’t say about their past 2 albums. </p> <p>I like the opening track, “The Miracle (of Joey Ramone)” but maybe I like it because I know name checking Joey Ramone shits people the same way Bono back in 1988 said he was stealing back Helter Skelter from Charles Manson. It has a nice guitar lick; probably wish it had a bit more of it. </p> <p>“Every Breaking Wave” is very U2, better than No Line on the Horizon’s “Magnificent”, which isn’t saying much, but it’s a bit safe for me. </p> <p>“California (There is no end to love)” is the most annoying track for me. It starts of interestingly with the repetition of “Bar… bar… Barbara… Santa Barbara” but then doesn’t really do much for me from then on. Oddly when reading the many reviews, there is very little agreement on which are the best tracks, and some considered this to be one of those that will get concert crowds going. I don’t see/hear it. If there is a criticism that a song sound too much like Coldplay then this one is it. </p> <p>“Song for Someone” is just beautiful. Had it been released 25 years ago, in the time since it would have featured in about 1.5 trillion weddings. </p> <p>“Iris (Hold me close)” about Bono’s mother (who died when he was 14) is another very U2 song. As Elmo Keep noted, it must be damn awful to get to point where your sound is so distinctive that your new songs can sound like old songs you wrote. But that said, it’s a good song – nice chorus. </p> <p>“Volcano” is a bit too wannabe Vertigo for my liking. I don’t mind it, and it is a million times better than No Line of the Horizon’s “Get on Your Boots”, which I struggled to listen to more than once. </p> <p>The second half is my favourite half – a bit like how I prefer the second side (back when there were sides) of Achtung Baby. This is the side where Danger Mouse has the most influence, and it’s all the better for it</p> <p>“Raised by Wolves” is the song I’ve probably listened to the most, it has a lot of interesting things going on (oddly I’ve seen reviews complain the album songs being too much the same, while others that they’re too confused).</p> <p>“Cedarwood Road” feels like it should be better than it ended up. The lyrics I think let it down, because the music is great – especially The Edge’s guitar work.</p> <p>“Sleep like a Baby Tonight” Is the best song on the album for mine. It wouldn’t have been out of place on Achtung Baby or Zooropa. Do I wish the whole album was like it? Maybe, but I’ve already got Achtung baby and Zooropa, I don’t need a replay. But the chorus here is lovely – even Bono going falsetto is bearable. I’ve always liked it when U2 go dark – eg Love is Blindness – and this mines that territory brilliantly. </p> <p>“This is Where You Can Reach Me” is apparently a kind of an ode to The Clash. Now I love the The Clash (I don’t think you could be a real U2 fan and not) but to me the song isn’t so much an ode to The Clash as an ode to Us during the time it recorded “War”. And I’m happy with that.</p> <p>“The Troubles” has U2 ending as they always do, with a slow song. And like (in my opinion) the best song on No Line on the Horizon, “Cedars of Lebanon”, this song’s title tricks listeners into assuming it will be some political heavy rant. Instead it’s a very inward looking song. Here they bring in Swedish singer <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lykke_Li">Lykke Li</a> to assist with vocals and it works perfectly. </p> <p>Her singing</p> <blockquote> <p>Somebody stepped inside your soul<br>Somebody stepped inside your soul<br>Little by little they robbed and stole<br>Till someone else was in control</p></blockquote> <p>is rather haunting. And sure people will say, yeah thanks U2 for inserting your album inside my iTunes account, and letting us know someone else is in control. <p>But that’s U2 for you, annoying you while also giving you some good music. <p>And after 35 years, it’s damn amazing they still are able to do either. Greg Jerichohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04956402439870441083noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8434369190746987531.post-10626749405113521582014-01-26T23:54:00.001+11:002014-01-27T09:42:20.115+11:002014 Australian Open recap: Stan’s the man<p>So two weeks ago a bloke write a post for <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-01-15/jericho-australian-open/5199618">The Drum</a> in which he stated:</p> <blockquote> <p>“But most certain of all is that the men's tournament will be won by one of the top-seeded players.”</p></blockquote> <p>Now in my defence I did mean one of the top 10, but yeah, Stan Wawrinka coming through, and being the first player to beat both Djokovic and Nadal in the one grand slam (Federer has a couple times beaten Djokovic and Murray to win, but not Nadal and one of the other) was not really on the cards.</p> <p>Even prior to the final it didn’t look that likely. Nadal thrashed Federer who had thrashed Murray (really the last part of the 3rd set was a flub) and Tsonga. He looked to be peaking at the perfect time.</p> <p>It was time to invite Pete Sampras down to hand out the trophy to Nadal for winning his 14th title (and thus equal with Sampras). It’s a tough game, men’s tennis. Best of 5. Can go for easily over three hours. Anything can happen. But c’mon. Put down your glasses. </p> <p>No one told Wawrinka however, who came out and pushed Nadal around all the way through the first set. He won it easy, deservedly, and confidently. </p> <p>But we’re talking Nadal here, El toro. The strongest mental player in the game. The come back is possible even probable. </p> <p>Winning a grand slam though is both a mental and physical test and the body needs to be able to last the 7 matches. And it can go at any moment. A slip, and lunge, a twinge.</p> <p>And Nadal’s body, which conversely seems built of steel and at times as fragile as rusted iron, was unkind. </p> <p>His back twigged. A spasm? A muscle pull? </p> <p>Who knows. But he was off for an injury break after being broken at the start of the 2nd set. </p> <p>The crowd booed. Spurred on perhaps by Wawrinka taking a bit of issue with the time out, because certainly it was the precise moment if you were going to indulge in some gamesmanship to call for the trainer. </p> <p>The crowd was perhaps chastened by memories of Azarenka going off in last year women’s final, perhaps as well by Nadal’s rather oddly timed injury time-out in his semi-final against Federer, and who knows, perhaps even recalling Tomic’s quick default in the first round against Nadal.</p> <p>And you can say they were unsportsmanlike. But tennis has become victim to players using timeouts at opportune times. The crowds know it, and can sense it especially when the other player seems to be thinking it as well. </p> <p>It was clear though, as soon as the play restarted, that Nadal was injured. And the crowd, perhaps chastened by their own reaction, cheered for Nadal for most of the rest of the match.</p> <p>Nadal gave Wawrinka the 2nd set with barely a yelp. </p> <p>But there was no way Nadal was going to quit. You don’t quit in the final of a grand slam. Justine Henin did it in the 2006 women’s final in Melbourne and it rather hung over her. It seemed disrespectful to Mauresmo.</p> <p>Grand slam finals tennis etiquette requires even when you are injured to stay out there and get beaten. </p> <p>And there was no way Nadal was going to quit because backs are funny things… drugs can dull the pain… swinging for winners at every opportunity can suddenly start being a good strategy – especially if you opponent is not quite sure what to do – kill you off, or take pity, or go through the emotions like Wawrinka sort of only needed to do in the second set? </p> <p>And so it was with Wawrinka. He gifted Nadal a break at the start of the third set. He played like he assumed Nadal was unable to walk, and then when Nadal began to run he played like someone who felt he had been cheated. <a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-Ba4nlMSLlH8/UuUFhrMWj3I/AAAAAAAAL04/Nar7aM0X1Bk/s1600-h/Stan%252520the%252520man%25255B3%25255D.png"><img title="Stan the man" style="border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; background-image: none; border-bottom-width: 0px; float: right; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin: 5px 0px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px; border-top-width: 0px" border="0" alt="Stan the man" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-u3AXYJMWwLI/UuUFihzi7KI/AAAAAAAAL1A/vzfLBDxg3Jg/Stan%252520the%252520man_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="471" align="right" height="364"></a></p> <p>For a set he was angry and confused with the world. </p> <p>The Nadal of the second set was gone, replaced by a bloke playing like there was no tomorrow, because there is none. You don’t win 13 grand slams by leaving anything on the court. </p> <p>And Wawrinka was a wreck. He had thoroughly outplayed Nadal in the first set, and suddenly was acting like the match had been stolen, instead of him playing like he was up 2 sets to love. </p> <p>He tried to shorten points despite it being Nadal who wanted each rally to finish as soon as possible. He forgot to make Nadal run. He lost timing, lost game play, lost his head.</p> <p>The second set was lost by Nadal’s back; the third lost by Wawrinka’s head. </p> <p>The fourth set though seemed to bring normality back to the court. Nadal was running around, but clearly not able to return with the power needed to trouble Wawrinka’s serve. Nadal was down break points in his first serving game, was at 30-30 in his second. </p> <p>Wawrinka’s serve seemed solid and it looked only a matter of time before Wawrinka realised the match was there for him to take.</p> <p>And take is he did, when he broke Nadal easily to go up 4-2. </p> <p>Start the engraving.</p> <p>And then he was broken to love.</p> <p>A truly horrible game. No first serves in, a seriously choked forehand to lose the game.</p> <p>And so everyone started to wonder if this is going to be the biggest choke of all time. Because, while Nadal deserves the credit for sticking it out, it was clearly on Wawrinka’s racquet and he was literally giving the games to Nadal. Balls hit long, shanked forehands, tight first serves, dumb tennis. It was some of the most awful tennis to watch. </p> <p>I don’t think there was anyone watching or playing the match who thought if it went to 5 sets that Wawrinka would win. He had to win the 4th. To lose it would have been the most gut searing experience that could have been only worsened by the thought that losing 3 sets in such circumstance is worse than 2, and that he was very likely going to do just that. </p> <p>Thankfully – because it would have been seriously godly horrific to watch – he again broke Nadal straight away to go up 5-3.</p> <p>This time he served it out like a man knowing it was his time. </p> <p>The tournament of the body and mind was won by the man who was able to keep hold of both – even if the mind looked gone for a set and a half. </p> <p>Anyone who thinks this victory is diminished has no idea how sport works. It’s survival of the fittest. There is many a sportsman or woman going around who would’ve had a great career were it not for injuries. </p> <p>The body needs to hold up in order for you to hold up the trophy. That’s why you do the training, that’s why you have the insane fitness regimes.</p> <p>Was Nadal unlucky? Yes. But no less than he was lucky Tomic was injured allowing Nadal to cruise through what was expected to be a tough first round. Pete Sampras was getting easily beaten by Mark Philippoussis in the quarter finals of the 1999 Wimbledon Championships when Philippoussis tore the cartilage in his left knee. There’s no asterisk by Sampras’s name on that trophy, and there’s none next to Wawrinka’s for this one.</p> <p>The body and the mind both have to hold up.</p> <p>And so is there a changing of the guard? Not really, but yes. Wawrinka is 28 years old. He is never going to be the big thing in tennis (nor even the next big thing). He is not the new generation – he’s older than Nadal, Djokovic and Murray. But it is a changing of the guard because it should let every other player in the top 10 know that it can be done. </p> <p>Surely Juan Martin del Potro will one day remember he is good enough to win these titles. Tsonga, Simon, Monfils and others should know you don’t need to win a title by the time you’re 25 or you’re done. </p> <p>But also the tournament showed us glimmers of the future. Grigor Dimitrov has arrived, and he looks set to stick around. At just 22 he is the first of the next generation of players who have had to realise that the old days of breaking through when you’re 19 or 20 are gone. </p> <p>The men’s game is now a game for men. He beat Canadian Milos Raonic, and he at number 11 in the world is likely to be the next one to break into the top 10. If both he and Dimitrov can do it this year, then a changing of the guard will be more in doing than in the talking.</p> <p>For Tomic? Well he had a bad one. Injured and also well beaten in Sydney by del Potro. He now sits at around 65 in the world. </p> <p>But the year is young. Where he is at the US Open is more important than where he sits now. But he’ll have to put up with playing on the back courts and not being given the top 10 treatment he does in Australia. </p> <p>So too will the two new guns of Aussie tennis, Nick Kyrgios and Thanasi Kokkinakis. They now face the reality of men’s tennis. They might get a couple wild cards but the reality is their rankings are such that they will be having to play qualifiers just to get in the most low level of tournaments on the ATP tour. For the most part they’ll be playing on the 2nd tier Challenger circuit. </p> <p>Krygios was ranked 183 in the world coming into the tournament and even after it won’t be in the top 150. Kokkinakis is ranked in the top 500. There is a mountain to climb yet. </p> <p>They both looked great – but tennis is a cruel fight all the way up the top. The talk of Tomic being replaced is possible, but it is worth remembering Tomic has already made it to the top 30. He has shown he actually does have the game to get seeded in the grand slams, and once you get there, it’s up to you to do the work and make your luck. </p> <p>Krygios and Kokkinakis by contrast have played a couple good games in a row. </p> <p>Anyone who thinks it is a guarantee they’ll get to the top should look at Belgian David Goffin. He is 23. In the fourth round of the 2012 French Open he took the first set off Roger Federer. He got up to number 42 in the world as a 21 year old. </p> <p>He is now ranked 111 in the world. </p> <p>He last played in the Challenger event in New Caledonia where he had to retire in the 2nd round with an injury, and he wasn’t even able to come to Australia and play in the qualifiers. It won’t matter too much because he was only defending 10 points from last year’s tournament where he got knocked out in the first round. </p> <p>Potential is great, but the body and mind have to hold up. </p> <p>And so to the final question that always comes up at any grand slam. How is Federer going?</p> <p>I think he was playing well enough to beat anyone… except Nadal. Nadal’s game is what would have been created in a lab by the world’s best scientist charged with constructing a player who can beat Federer. </p> <p>That top spin left-hand forehand to Federer’s backhand is just death. Federer’s weedy arm is just not strong enough to do what Wawrinka did in the final against it. </p> <p>But the way he played against Tsonga and Murray suggests if the body holds up (that old-man back is always going to be an issue until he retires) he should have a good year. He drops to number 8 in the world, but that won’t matter too much. </p> <p>Given how few points he has to defend at both Wimbledon and the US Open and a few other tournaments that he skipped last year, his current top 8 ranking is more a victim of time than of how he is playing. He made the semis and there’s no reason to think he can’t get back to the top 4. The trouble is with Wawrinka now top 3 and having the 2000 points from this tournament for the rest of the year, it’ll be hard to shift him. The fight for the 4th spot will be fierce. </p> <p>Djokovic as well is looking ok. He was probably due a loss, and it took Wawrinka having the fortnight of his life to do it. Murray also looks like once he has a few matches under his belt and few months on the fitness track, he’ll be up there as well, despite his current ranking of number 6. </p> <p>The status quo is still there for the most part, but Wawrinka showed it can be changed if you play your best and take the opportunities when they present themselves. </p> <p>***</p> <p>The other big thing is this stopped Nadal from getting to 14 grand slam titles. He remains 4 behind Federer. He’ll probably get there, but it is amazing how tough those last few can be. </p> <p>So here’s the graph of the top grand slam winners (open era). I include tournaments missed, because you gotta turn up to win it.</p> <p><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-VM7qgN9QYYI/UuUFjZGCdpI/AAAAAAAAL1I/AF-m2zFvv3c/s1600-h/image%25255B4%25255D.png"><img title="image" style="border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; background-image: none; border-bottom-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px; border-top-width: 0px" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-l7mPbgBGlzI/UuUFkO3oRyI/AAAAAAAAL1Q/VB5ifoI5Fe8/image_thumb%25255B2%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="652" height="371"></a></p> <p>Nadal is still on pace, but the body can go at any time… you don’t count them till they’re sitting on your mantelpiece. </p> <p>The next graph starts from when each player won their first title onwards. It shows that Nadal’s peak certainly hasn’t been as dominant as Federer’s. When Federer learned how to win them, he learned how to win them a lot, but time is on his side – not perhaps in ever having as good a run as Federer, but in overhauling his career number of titles. The question is if his body will be for the probably 2 more year needed:</p> <p><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-Qe1_o95ravo/UuUFk52ALPI/AAAAAAAAL1Y/5-QCVlrAx9Y/s1600-h/image%25255B9%25255D.png"><img title="image" style="border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; background-image: none; border-bottom-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px; border-top-width: 0px" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-n__wY0RiMlU/UuUFlmFGu8I/AAAAAAAAL1g/p1HlyeBcYk4/image_thumb%25255B5%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="651" height="376"></a></p> <p>***</p> <p>As usual with me this has been focussed on the men’s side. I will endeavour to do something on the women’s game soon (time permitting). Even with Wawrinka’s win, I think you can make a great case that the women’s game has much greater depth than the men’s – and that is a very odd situation given the past 30 years. </p> Greg Jerichohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04956402439870441083noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8434369190746987531.post-68459182991735579062014-01-16T21:25:00.001+11:002014-01-16T21:37:49.870+11:00Australia’s Unemployment Rate in December– Steady at 5.8%<p>Today’s <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6202.0?OpenDocument">labour force figures</a> demonstrated that sometimes economics is not about “good news and bad news”, sometimes it’s just all bad. </p> <p>There really was nothing in today’s figures that holds any joy. But let us gird our loins and venture into the data.</p> <p>Firstly the unemployment rate both seasonally adjusted and trend stayed at 5.8%</p> <p><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-MTEun1uBIV0/UtezFJIopBI/AAAAAAAALwg/ARgxvaktn6M/s1600-h/image1.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-uRfQHrNbctw/UtezGBMft8I/AAAAAAAALwo/taFcsmaW3mg/image_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="646" height="386" /></a></p> <p>It was pretty close to 5.9% though. The seasonally adjusted rate came in at 5.845%, so about a hundred fewer jobs and the rate would be 5.9%. </p> <p>But that said the trend rate was 5.79% which is a rock solid 5.8%. </p> <p>A <a href="http://grogsgamut.blogspot.com.au/2013/11/australias-unemployment-rate-rises-to.html">couple months ago</a> I was hoping a bit of a plateau was beginning to appear, but alas, when we go in for a close-up the upward direction appears to continue:</p> <p><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-oHNMG-Ao198/UtezG3Yl0-I/AAAAAAAALww/Q2tJlh2i6oo/s1600-h/image41.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-UMvdUQtLyGI/UtezHjtiAMI/AAAAAAAALw4/n_-9A4t8cu8/image4_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="649" height="340" /></a></p> <p>The worst thing was this month employment actually fell. In seasonally adjusted terms employment decreased by 22,600, or 0.19%. As you can see the seasonally adjusted measure jumps around a bit, but even the trend growth was negative (just):</p> <p><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-C3eFBG0CepU/UtezIT2kWcI/AAAAAAAALxA/5sDaaLnsaUs/s1600-h/image82.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-2fO0pnX7eUs/UtezJY9sjLI/AAAAAAAALxI/oVGTra0MZTc/image8_thumb1.png?imgmax=800" width="654" height="367" /></a></p> <p>In annual terms things are still positive:</p> <p><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-1ewleWf0KEY/UtezKElUrkI/AAAAAAAALxQ/ewoW2yFd71k/s1600-h/image111.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-bjEcSi2OTgs/UtezK6PLctI/AAAAAAAALxY/cNH4I2WX7_M/image11_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="650" height="386" /></a></p> <p>But that is small consolation, especially if we have a look at the past 20 years, and we see it is almost as bad as it was during the GFC, and only the 1990s recession had it worse:</p> <p><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-IDw7_eZZLQI/UtezLhFfUdI/AAAAAAAALxg/5P2IqDLKVf4/s1600-h/image352.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-6snhK-MCi2E/UtezMfpGirI/AAAAAAAALxo/dhuBgi67__o/image35_thumb1.png?imgmax=800" width="650" height="383" /></a></p> <p>And if we look at the 5 yearly jobs growth over the past 30 years, the picture isn’t much better (out of interest to get to a million jobs in 5 years, it’d need to get up to around 8.5%): </p> <p><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-fgsYHtaMmH8/UtezNAeS7rI/AAAAAAAALxw/OcIB2_KrW3A/s1600-h/image381.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-QtGFG59uzRY/UtezN9M_FxI/AAAAAAAALx4/KV2zltm2XOk/image38_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="656" height="401" /></a></p> <p>But the big problem is any job growth that there is, is in part-time work. On <a href="https://twitter.com/GrogsGamut/status/423615969332699136">Twitter</a> I posted a 3 year version of this graph, but here’s a 5 year one to give broader context – and what occurred during the GFC:</p> <p><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-7XQlyS-k3zM/UtezOmhHccI/AAAAAAAALyA/1uhLkoBpMZ8/s1600-h/image142.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-IDBRvB1MYmw/UtezPbiIz9I/AAAAAAAALyI/5tDfIJ1sN_k/image14_thumb1.png?imgmax=800" width="645" height="364" /></a></p> <p>The drop in full-time work is not quite as bad as it was during the GFC (in trend terms at least), but it ain’t healthy at all:</p> <p><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-oZpkdEeug0E/UtezQKwTVwI/AAAAAAAALyQ/4yqk_HE8KUY/s1600-h/image%25255B4%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/--4x1r6sst4E/UtezRQ7c7UI/AAAAAAAALyY/HPFJ3k1-kjo/image_thumb%25255B2%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="658" height="350" /></a></p> <p>Not surprisingly growth in hours worked is starting to go down, and when that goes negative you know we’re in bleak territory. </p> <p><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-m0rWMcLc5bM/UtezR_ufARI/AAAAAAAALyg/ikX-NLLMfjA/s1600-h/image20%25255B1%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-1zG1_EMZb1s/UtezSrwqO2I/AAAAAAAALyo/MhGJySEVARI/image20_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="657" height="339" /></a></p> <p>In 2012 the hours worked grew much slower than actual employment – suggesting an increase in part-time work and also more work being cut back than laid off. Now though they’re together:</p> <p><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-zX19v2tm2OA/UtezTYuAz1I/AAAAAAAALyw/JI4vvYXLtD0/s1600-h/image23%25255B1%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-QAlHEzKH0OA/UtezUIMy6HI/AAAAAAAALy4/VkmIXJZMFlY/image23_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="656" height="392" /></a></p> <p>As a result the growth in hours worked per person is also starting to decline after a bit of an increase in the middle of 2013:</p> <p><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-gZ79gAus4vA/UtezU5kgdVI/AAAAAAAALzA/JPfFRDFoy4M/s1600-h/image26%25255B1%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-lHDMsirmN-c/UtezVszHrzI/AAAAAAAALzI/gSDBmpFQea4/image26_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="654" height="375" /></a></p> <p>This all adds up to an increase in the rate of people looking for full-time work:</p> <p><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-VQg5YPMDRoc/UtezW9_IcmI/AAAAAAAALzM/bAMC-gb6srs/s1600-h/image29%25255B1%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-rC3vvipj5ME/UtezXoXZW8I/AAAAAAAALzY/ja05fgbwHsw/image29_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="662" height="385" /></a></p> <p>After a slight decline in the gap between these two rates in the middle of last year, it has again widened. It’s not quite at the gap it was during the GFC, but neither does it seem to be peaking. </p> <p><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-lBzJfSfXpQg/UtezYIXRXvI/AAAAAAAALzg/SSr9vu65JMw/s1600-h/image32%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-jpCqfoaACbs/UtezZD1PQsI/AAAAAAAALzo/G27oPVRIRQU/image32_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="657" height="339" /></a></p> <p>The employment to population ratio is also awful:</p> <p><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-rKB-yuRyT6M/UtezZnaV-rI/AAAAAAAALzw/ocuJgoyGBMY/s1600-h/image%25255B8%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-hnfo-nT232c/UtezaYemqVI/AAAAAAAALz4/2qsHfgQB3Ew/image_thumb%25255B4%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="661" height="371" /></a></p> <p>If we look at the historical view you can really see that a turning point happened in 2009-2010:</p> <p><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-8A1J5PEb3gU/UtezaygPQlI/AAAAAAAAL0A/vgj83sslRr8/s1600-h/image%25255B12%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-12OZD2UaP_s/Utezb_FKSMI/AAAAAAAAL0I/f9S3eymCvaY/image_thumb%25255B6%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="656" height="368" /></a></p> <p>Most of this is due to the ageing population (I doubt we will ever see the 63% level again), but if you compare the total ratio to that of just 15-64yo you can see even percentage of those in the working age who are employed has also fallen (though this is also due to an increase in 15-24yos staying in education)</p> <p><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-AQMfQhNdr5k/UtezcQX7ZnI/AAAAAAAAL0Q/NVLhcMkKwMM/s1600-h/image%25255B16%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-l8klawxwIKM/UtezdUKQTgI/AAAAAAAAL0Y/NZTDEF7UP9o/image_thumb%25255B8%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="658" height="369" /></a></p> <p>I might do a post on the states tomorrow, or I might save it for my next Guardian post because there are some interesting aspects when you break it down to state level, but I’ll leave you with this one graph which shows that Victoria now is the biggest anchor on the unemployment rate:</p> <p><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-mjQRpZYG4Y0/Utezd0vx3WI/AAAAAAAAL0g/Y_7lWc6I334/s1600-h/image%25255B21%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-mM8li2Qcey0/Utezevymf2I/AAAAAAAAL0o/c0seCAqbM1k/image_thumb%25255B11%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="649" height="319" /></a></p> <p>All in all, bleurgh. Who knew that a government coming in and saying they're open for business wouldn’t get turned around straight away. These figure aren’t the Liberal Party’s though. But the time to lay the blame on the ALP is fast running out for Hockey and Co. </p> Greg Jerichohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04956402439870441083noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8434369190746987531.post-21222769238933980402013-11-07T16:32:00.001+11:002013-11-07T16:53:54.349+11:00October Employment Figures (some more graphs)<p>From my Guardian post I have start using Datawrapper for the graphs. They are a bit more interactive, though pretty basic. I actually prefer just using Excel for some graphs, especially when I am using 2 Y-axis, or I want to combine columns and lines on the same graph.</p> <p>But here are a few graphs with Datawrapper:</p> <p>I might use these a bit more in future</p> <p><iframe height="400" src="http://cf.datawrapper.de/Q3nMN/1/" frameborder="0" width="640" allowtransparency="allowtransparency" msallowfullscreen="msallowfullscreen" oallowfullscreen="oallowfullscreen" mozallowfullscreen="mozallowfullscreen" webkitallowfullscreen="webkitallowfullscreen" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe></p> <p><iframe height="400" src="http://cf.datawrapper.de/DuG7S/1/" frameborder="0" width="640" allowtransparency="allowtransparency" msallowfullscreen="msallowfullscreen" oallowfullscreen="oallowfullscreen" mozallowfullscreen="mozallowfullscreen" webkitallowfullscreen="webkitallowfullscreen" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe></p> <p>A different version of the above</p> <p><iframe height="400" src="http://cf.datawrapper.de/DuG7S/2/" frameborder="0" width="640" allowtransparency="allowtransparency" msallowfullscreen="msallowfullscreen" oallowfullscreen="oallowfullscreen" mozallowfullscreen="mozallowfullscreen" webkitallowfullscreen="webkitallowfullscreen" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe></p> <p><iframe height="400" src="http://cf.datawrapper.de/LKrYq/2/" frameborder="0" width="640" allowtransparency="allowtransparency" msallowfullscreen="msallowfullscreen" oallowfullscreen="oallowfullscreen" mozallowfullscreen="mozallowfullscreen" webkitallowfullscreen="webkitallowfullscreen" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe></p> Greg Jerichohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04956402439870441083noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8434369190746987531.post-37380486951213801662013-11-07T14:32:00.001+11:002013-11-07T15:36:16.417+11:00Australia’s unemployment rate rises to 5.8%, or steady at 5.7% (take your pick)<p>The Monthly labour force figures came out today and they do little to suggest the Treasury's prediction of 6.25% by June next year will be wildly inaccurate.</p> <p>In seasonally adjusted terms the unemployment rate in October stayed flat at 5.7%. Although given September’s rate was 5.6755% and October’s was 5.7442%, it was all down to rounding that kept the rate flat when in fact it increased 0.068 percentage points.</p> <p>In trend terms, the rate rose form 5.7% to 5.8%. But here again rounding is at work. The trend rate in September was 5.74% and in October it was estimated to be 5.75%. So as a result of rounding it increases up from 5.7% to 5.8%, but in reality it only increased by 0.0106 percentage points.</p> <p>So the seasonally adjusted version shifted by more than the trend measure but the trend rate “increased” while the seasonally adjusted rate stayed “flat”.</p> <p>Don’t you just love economic statistics? </p> <p>At this point we should remember these are estimations. The seasonally adjusted rate for example sees the ABS being 95% confident that the rate shifted somewhere between in falling 0.3 points and rising 0.5 points.</p> <p>But that statistical rhubarb aside, let’s get to the graphs:</p> <p>First the 10 year picture finds us back where we were 10 years ago. Now back then being below 6% was seen as an economic wonder. Now if it were to stay at 5.8% there would be grumbles about a weak economy (and reasonably fair enough). </p> <p><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-EYlipcjP9Zw/UnsJdb6WPDI/AAAAAAAALrI/cm4Zq5qBdMM/s1600-h/image%25255B45%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-_dgmFST6wQU/UnsJeHu1EkI/AAAAAAAALrQ/Em88BHUpz6Y/image_thumb%25255B15%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="650" height="389" /></a></p> <p>The close-up 18 months picture has us aching to see a plateau. It does however highlight that we haven’t quite got the the 5.8% mark yet, and for use to get to 6.25% would require a speeding up of unemployment as was seen after the brief semi-plateau observed at the end of 2012:</p> <p><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-qImsoHyEfgk/UnsJe_3t79I/AAAAAAAALrY/e_9rmyT8SvU/s1600-h/image%25255B47%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-lB5R8_LYkRc/UnsJfbwBOUI/AAAAAAAALrg/eVfjKxjcyCU/image_thumb%25255B17%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="649" height="339" /></a></p> <p>But the story today wasn’t so much about unemployment as employment. The number of jobs in trend terms fell 0.036%</p> <p><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-f3t0-zIiJ5E/UnsJgKCXgkI/AAAAAAAALro/0IlIcTkSNB8/s1600-h/image%25255B48%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-9dWYrKN828w/UnsJg6IIKhI/AAAAAAAALrw/d48PesFfPEA/image_thumb%25255B18%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="642" height="360" /></a></p> <p>And it makes for a pretty ugly annual growth figure. Employment growth is heading back to the level we saw during the GFC. Who knew it took more than just saying “Australia is open for business” to get people hiring workers?</p> <p><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-civQZN6Nl68/UnsJheu9qXI/AAAAAAAALr0/4u0vDk4A92s/s1600-h/image%25255B49%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-BN5nZ9FdqS4/UnsJh_PJMYI/AAAAAAAALsA/KlL44KCkft0/image_thumb%25255B19%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="652" height="387" /></a></p> <p>Although intriguingly the hours worked in the month increased:</p> <p><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-G4_UIlmSQro/UnsJilu6u-I/AAAAAAAALsI/xvwVDf6uezc/s1600-h/image%25255B50%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-nkvSQhW2jl8/UnsJjW7UGgI/AAAAAAAALsQ/B-GV9FLQwOU/image_thumb%25255B20%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="648" height="353" /></a></p> <p>But it appears to have peaked in annual growth terms:</p> <p><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-MQ9jDiJULkw/UnsJjreTJII/AAAAAAAALsY/LpvEJpW9yo4/s1600-h/image%25255B51%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-eTOQTft3Ri0/UnsJkoZ0FCI/AAAAAAAALsg/fnmsa8lb3y0/image_thumb%25255B21%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="652" height="336" /></a></p> <p>And when we compared growth in hours worked with growth in employment it seems that perhaps this peak of growth in hours means the disconnect between the two measures that has occurred since mid-2012 is about to end</p> <p><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-axeAZmK1VXo/UnsJlZ9kJbI/AAAAAAAALso/MgCttMsZT70/s1600-h/image%25255B53%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-Kiqd9fuGaN4/UnsJmFXflyI/AAAAAAAALsw/hQSQszKQXsY/image_thumb%25255B23%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="649" height="388" /></a></p> <p>It also means for the first time in 6 months the monthly hours worked per worker did not increase in October</p> <p><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-amJqIZgOOt0/UnsJmhmSXAI/AAAAAAAALs4/PkolVrp0lKo/s1600-h/image%25255B54%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/--YA4jRwbE-g/UnsJnanzpDI/AAAAAAAALtA/wjCnHed5k7s/image_thumb%25255B24%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="654" height="375" /></a></p> <p>But while the story of the labour force figures was the lack of job growth the really interesting part of that story is the breakdown of full-time and part time employment growth:</p> <p>Trend part time jobs in October grew (just) while full-time work fell for the 6 month in a row. </p> <p>And this meant that for the second month in a row there are now fewer full-time jobs than there was 12 months ago: </p> <p><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-kfk3yWDNa14/UnsJoHttTfI/AAAAAAAALtE/9ZMGdfURLoU/s1600-h/image%25255B55%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-e7bRb77tJGs/UnsJoy_K7BI/AAAAAAAALtQ/g7geQzp3ecQ/image_thumb%25255B25%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="657" height="333" /></a></p> <p>The drop in full-time work has hit men the hardest:</p> <p><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-vwhZq-gmc4w/UnsJpiDojVI/AAAAAAAALtY/NcF72SBTcFs/s1600-h/image%25255B57%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-ffPwQUpHrSE/UnsJqEY6oZI/AAAAAAAALtg/hIxdcnZnmh0/image_thumb%25255B27%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="652" height="360" /></a></p> <p>But lets compare the FT/PT growth by gender:</p> <p><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-d-LtkrrFLTs/UnsJqmjgAQI/AAAAAAAALto/8yT2ysP4yNU/s1600-h/image%25255B62%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-nYW8Zt7LFu4/UnsJr1Ah-hI/AAAAAAAALtw/x8GYpheMsts/image_thumb%25255B30%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="653" height="347" /></a></p> <p>For men the growth in part-time work is quite dramatic, for women it’s pretty standard:</p> <p><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-fd4W9f1pcDc/UnsJsRVmAWI/AAAAAAAALt4/7_aUo6Hkks4/s1600-h/image%25255B66%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-W0XiuQy65ZE/UnsJtZYwBgI/AAAAAAAALuA/BCH5gYcpY3A/image_thumb%25255B32%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="654" height="348" /></a></p> <p>Not surprisingly the lack of full-time work for men has kept the gap between the unemployment rate of those looking for full-time work and the overall figure at pretty ugly highs. </p> <p><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-Ab0LdnuvuZk/UnsJt1UBJII/AAAAAAAALuI/CutIOO6r6_g/s1600-h/image%25255B58%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-CP_Nn3NEyWE/UnsJus5BccI/AAAAAAAALuQ/rB0mrbMDYr4/image_thumb%25255B28%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="648" height="374" /></a></p> <p>What is also concerning is that while yes you can blame some of the fall in participation on the ageing workforce, the percentage of 15-64yo in employment continues to fall (though again some of this can be attributed to the decline in youth employment due to them staying at school longer now. I really wish the ABS did a monthly 25-54yo breakdown to get “prime working age” figures – and yes I can work it out using the “detailed” figures that will come out next week, but geez, that requires work!) </p> <p><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-J6FWnH-Fnk0/UnsJvCEBNvI/AAAAAAAALuY/b9ic-heo8tw/s1600-h/image%25255B67%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-crxpBQUBeYo/UnsJvwCBF1I/AAAAAAAALug/xy5qb8K4RF8/image_thumb%25255B33%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="644" height="361" /></a></p> <p>For me though an interestingly little nugget I discovered is that for the first time in 30 years the proportion of women employed (15-64yo) is less than it was 5 years earlier:</p> <p><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-ukgHZrhlTLM/UnsJwY1nNQI/AAAAAAAALuo/HSfHorsvNLc/s1600-h/image%25255B69%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-43Eo8tNyws0/UnsJxLYaHhI/AAAAAAAALuw/rj4U6RUgJ4E/image_thumb%25255B35%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="648" height="385" /></a></p> <p>After the surge of women into the workforce in the 1980s and the continual strong growth during the late 1990s and first part of this century the growth it has fallen rather dramatically. For an economy that has thrived on the increase in participation of women this might be the big issue – ie not just ageing, but have we reached the peak level of women workers? Is two-thirds of adult women working the highest we can get? </p> <p>My guess is that while more women-friendly work places and the breaking down of discrimination has led to the increase in women working – mostly in part-time work. For the number to go any higher would require, I think, some fairly major changes of culture in terms of which parent stays at home. </p> <p>Finally a quick look at the states. And break out the champagne you austerity champions, QLD has had the strongest employment growth of the past 12 months:</p> <p><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-Mr8L4iHWiiM/UnsJxtkeOGI/AAAAAAAALu4/b46hkd9dlkI/s1600-h/image%25255B77%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-rBctNR72Qkc/UnsJySgxFJI/AAAAAAAALvA/l70trTUMfvQ/image_thumb%25255B39%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="644" height="319" /></a></p> <p>A look however at the past year suggests its position is due to a nice pick up in QLD and a big fall in WA and NSW. But at least QLD’s unemployment rate remains steady at 5.9%. Good news: </p> <p><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-D9w15yQNu7s/UnsJy07Sw1I/AAAAAAAALvI/B7-l336Mops/s1600-h/image%25255B85%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-jvQWZkzF9YQ/UnsJzhIu_3I/AAAAAAAALvQ/8gugb9R0Rck/image_thumb%25255B43%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="633" height="332" /></a></p> Greg Jerichohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04956402439870441083noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8434369190746987531.post-36049875931818800462013-10-10T16:40:00.001+11:002013-10-10T18:19:39.855+11:00Australia’s Unemployment Rate steady at 5.7%<p>Today the ABS released the latest labour force<a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/6202.0Main+Features1Sep%202013?OpenDocument"> numbers</a>. I haven’t done a full post on the number for a couple month due to the election, so let’s have a look and see how we’re doing.</p> <p>First off, the numbers scream “ignore the seasonally adjusted rate”. On seasonally adjusted terms the unemployment rate in September actually fell from 5.8% to 5.6%. </p> <p>But come one. Really? Maybe it’s the big turn around, but given the IMF on Wednesday thinks we’re looking at a 6.0% unemployment rate next year (and Treasury is gloomier still, thinking 6.25%) I’d bet no. </p> <p>In trend terms – which is always much better when it comes to comparing changes from month to month, it stayed flat at 5.7%.</p> <p>And anyway if we get down tot he nitty gritty, the seasonally adjusted figure in August was 5.7647% so it only just got rounded up to 5.8%, and September’s number was 5.6479%, so it only just got round down to 5.6%. Thus while it looks like a 0.2 percentage point drop it’s really only a 0.12 percentage point drop. </p> <p>So I’m going with the 5.7% flat rate as more believable. </p> <p>OK, the 5 year picture:</p> <p><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-cJafaDoDsd0/UlY9hOs5eKI/AAAAAAAAKPo/Wr-hLSsMH-Y/s1600-h/image%25255B46%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-VdlCHJQ1TY0/UlY9hslAtQI/AAAAAAAAKPw/ihztdel_vIc/image_thumb%25255B16%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="646" height="387" /></a></p> <p>We’re not quite back to where we were during the GFC, but the path back to 6.0% has been pretty steady since mid 2012.</p> <p>So let’s go in for our 18 month close up:</p> <p><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-3unIgV3l7Ko/UlY9iZrAIYI/AAAAAAAAKP4/Cy7qmKfmp7o/s1600-h/image%25255B47%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-A_FBke8YY4s/UlY9i63grnI/AAAAAAAAKQA/rCDJ42EnSdw/image_thumb%25255B17%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="653" height="342" /></a></p> <p>A steady rise, but and ever so slight suggestion of a plateau. I think that plateau depends a fair bit on whether or not this month’s figures get revised a bit next time round. </p> <p>But that’s the big number, let’s flip open the hood and have a bit of a squirrel around and see what is really going on. </p> <p>First, monthly employment growth:</p> <p>There was an increase of 9,100 jobs in seasonally adjusted terms, but employment actually fell in trend terms:</p> <p><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-CF8AMzQwlLM/UlY9jaPf8UI/AAAAAAAAKQI/Ha9UJbXek1Q/s1600-h/image%25255B48%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-ZQIh3zfecPM/UlY9kJXrLTI/AAAAAAAAKQQ/p67D-FWwboU/image_thumb%25255B18%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="652" height="366" /></a></p> <p>Either way, it’s pretty soft (and by soft I mean fricken weak) as the annual employment growth rate really shows:</p> <p><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-nTjOh3xPZPs/UlY9kloTJ7I/AAAAAAAAKQY/BzFFY04MCeo/s1600-h/image%25255B49%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-JT2M8yVKhlU/UlY9lWFNhpI/AAAAAAAAKQg/5t2Yvgzm-bo/image_thumb%25255B19%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="653" height="388" /></a></p> <p>The hours worked measure is also interesting. In seasonally adjusted terms it fell (even though the amount of jobs increased). But in trend terms it has been increasing for the past 12 months:</p> <p><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-tYXz-OyHCiY/UlY9l8dYhkI/AAAAAAAAKQo/VqVe652GOIY/s1600-h/image%25255B50%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-sTWDwztYr6E/UlY9muXns5I/AAAAAAAAKQw/-5N6tGI_JuM/image_thumb%25255B20%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="656" height="392" /></a></p> <p>This translates into an annual increase in hours worked that seems a bit at odds with the employment picture:</p> <p><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-JkAFvGqNxUw/UlY9nKBiQqI/AAAAAAAAKQ4/g9LCphPGhus/s1600-h/image%25255B51%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-pF71re5OUCg/UlY9n_qwFeI/AAAAAAAAKRA/I44NIg2H_OQ/image_thumb%25255B21%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="657" height="339" /></a></p> <p>But it makes more sense when we look at what has happened with both over the past few years:</p> <p><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-70U6de83c_0/UlY9oeymbbI/AAAAAAAAKRI/ALx0FKkgtJA/s1600-h/image%25255B55%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-uhTmHFF0Gug/UlY9pFg96TI/AAAAAAAAKRQ/Vxh-Wz4L08A/image_thumb%25255B23%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="657" height="374" /></a></p> <p>Here we see is that in 2012 hours were cut back, but employment continued to grow – through hours of full-time work being reduced, and/or the growth in part time work exceeding full time work. It is not too bad a thing really – much better for hours to fall than for total jobs to – it is always easier to increase hours than to go from no job to a job (and also a sign of a nicely flexible IR system). </p> <p>Now we see a bit of a counter balance. Clearly the economy is not going gang busters, but where work is able to be increased it is being increased through either shifting part-time workers to full-time, or increasing the hours of full-time workers. </p> <p>I would suggest the space between the total employment growth line and the hours worked bars from June 2012 to July 2103 exhibits a lot of spare capacity in the labour market of those already employed. </p> <p>I would suspect that the hours worked growth will need to stay above the employment growth for a few more months before we have any chance of seeing a good increase in employment. </p> <p>As a result the Hours worked per employed has now risen for the past 6 months, but is still well below pre-GFC levels:</p> <p><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-BsvZ6PWsKg0/UlY9pyM8_WI/AAAAAAAAKRY/JrD0_pi3xQU/s1600-h/image%25255B56%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-0o8GFggrL0w/UlY9q0qh1mI/AAAAAAAAKRg/XAZekAEHjlk/image_thumb%25255B24%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="655" height="370" /></a></p> <p>So there is some employment growth but not much, and what there is, is mostly part-time</p> <p><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-De-EQeuaj1o/UlY9rjl6PkI/AAAAAAAAKRo/AdmZv1akrGg/s1600-h/image%25255B61%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-gJmYJpCTM24/UlY9sfcQu5I/AAAAAAAAKRw/pv3_B2Mt_qs/image_thumb%25255B27%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="656" height="392" /></a></p> <p>But even the part-time employment growth is slowing as can be seen pretty starkly when we compare monthly full-time and part-time employment growth:</p> <p><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-JC7i6xx4kW0/UlY9tLIH6hI/AAAAAAAAKR4/0zFAT4hODEM/s1600-h/image%25255B65%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-egH8K-2-OOU/UlY9t80B24I/AAAAAAAAKSA/hYOY2D8GKTc/image_thumb%25255B29%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="661" height="357" /></a></p> <p>Not surprisingly the unemployment rate of those looking for full-time work remains well above the total rate: </p> <p><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-mMP7tJQ79OY/UlY9urQASuI/AAAAAAAAKSI/b9ZlhJf7S9s/s1600-h/image%25255B69%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-Cvf51FS4qLU/UlY9vJ4hNkI/AAAAAAAAKSQ/ZjXcPQvNxTM/image_thumb%25255B31%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="661" height="385" /></a></p> <p>The gap has narrowed a bit, but looking back over the past 10 years, we see the gap is as big as it has been outside the GFC period:</p> <p><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-qpV0CjarU9Y/UlY9vq5UqrI/AAAAAAAAKSY/ZOJCiMUSSaE/s1600-h/image%25255B70%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-Z9CXuPafSkw/UlY9wS8_zaI/AAAAAAAAKSg/xAaXC3Nbie0/image_thumb%25255B32%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="662" height="382" /></a></p> <p>The Participation Rate has received a fair bit of attention today, and not surprisingly because it has rather dived in the past few months:</p> <p><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-FNqVlckpYuI/UlY9xEpNtMI/AAAAAAAAKSo/spXlYvZ6EcA/s1600-h/image%25255B71%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-nSshfbKlJ9Y/UlY9xiRvYOI/AAAAAAAAKSw/Cc2tXUX3Xes/image_thumb%25255B33%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="656" height="395" /></a></p> <p>Now it is always worth remembering that the participation rate can fall for a couple reasons. The first is the most obvious – people have given up looking for work. But the second is why they have done that. For some it is due to despair, for other it is due to age. </p> <p>The ageing of the population remains with us, and I seriously doubt we’ll see a participation rate ever again at the near 66.0% that it reached in late 201o. </p> <p>Indeed a look at the past 20 years suggests 2008-2012 was a abnormal level rather than the expected to be norm. </p> <p><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-szwleUnLwyw/UlY9yfKgtyI/AAAAAAAAKS4/iUzL9GkL7Tk/s1600-h/image%25255B72%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-PvDjgTugXXs/UlY9y0IzRvI/AAAAAAAAKTA/H5LQQAMmZFg/image_thumb%25255B34%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="655" height="395" /></a></p> <p>One thing to note is that since November 2010 the total participation has fallen 0.8 percentage points, but the 15-64year old participation rate has only fallen 0.3 percentage points in that time. </p> <p>People are getting old, more than people are getting discouraged. For a better look at the ageing dynamic, Matt Cowgill has some excellent <a href="https://twitter.com/MattCowgill/status/387469233040265216/photo/1">graphs on it all</a>. My very quick and dirty look at the impact of the ageing of the population is to compare the change in the total employment to population ratio and that of 15-64yo since April 2008 (the peak level).</p> <p><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-YPlEvwA6CXQ/UlY9zR8AYKI/AAAAAAAAKTI/4ewmer-G_u4/s1600-h/image%25255B73%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-tOHCla_hzCY/UlY90Duw3oI/AAAAAAAAKTQ/0gnHtnITG8Q/image_thumb%25255B35%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="654" height="383" /></a></p> <p>While during the GFC the both rates fell and rose around the same, since the end of 2010 the total rate has fallen faster. And as we know 2010 minus 1945 is 65 – or the beginning of the retirement age for baby boomers. </p> <p>(I really should use the 25-54 age bracket, as what we’re also seeing now is that 15-24yo are staying in school/uni/TAFE more than they sued to, which is also reducing the total rate somewhat).</p> <p>OK, now onto the growth of employment for men and women. Usually I look at total employment, but let’s just look at full-time work:</p> <p><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-nn_nm-tPnB0/UlY90sVhO9I/AAAAAAAAKTY/QAWdn7jtk3M/s1600-h/image%25255B78%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-fjEzAGdYJrg/UlY91WTNeGI/AAAAAAAAKTg/wZAko_dFI9M/image_thumb%25255B38%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="646" height="357" /></a></p> <p>For the first time since the GFC period, annual male full-time employment fell in the past 12 months. While full-time employment for women is holding up, growth has moderated in the past 12 months.</p> <p>Not a really wonderful picture of economic health. Yes the unemployment rate went down, but let’s not get too excited, when full-0time work numbers start picking up, then we can begin to say the corner has been turned. </p> Greg Jerichohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04956402439870441083noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8434369190746987531.post-46979483157235700832013-09-10T00:05:00.001+10:002013-09-10T00:05:19.956+10:00Election 2013: The Newspapers<p>During the election campaign, most mornings, the first site I looked at was <a href="http://www.pressdisplay.com/pressdisplay/viewer.aspx">the Press Display</a> to see what the front pages were like.  Obviously they were mostly awful. But for future reference and for your edification here are the front pages of The Daily Telegraph, Courier Mail, Herald Sun, Advertiser, The Oz and Sunday Version thereof of every day of the campaign when the front page had a story about the election. </p> <p>Press daily didn’t used to show the front pages of Fairfax pages until a couple weeks ago, so I only have the pages of The SMH and The Age for the last two weeks. </p> <p>First The Daily Tele:</p> <p>I make it 10 pro LNP stories, 11 anti-ALP stories, and 1 sort of pro-ALP (the ALP launch which still had a kicker for Rudd in the headline about Abbot “surging)</p> <p><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-h_rVIx8X3Vs/Ui3RdJry3dI/AAAAAAAAJtw/DEeOgL53ry0/s1600-h/DT%2525201%25255B5%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="DT 1" border="0" alt="DT 1" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-_SvAkVTW8LM/Ui3Rd826QMI/AAAAAAAAJt4/f9zr20Ruldc/DT%2525201_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="171" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-9SiJNknf8G8/Ui3RfC-AQOI/AAAAAAAAJuA/jrkoBjkq8yU/s1600-h/DT%2525202%25255B5%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="DT 2" border="0" alt="DT 2" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-2mYtqBHYlYE/Ui3RgWjz49I/AAAAAAAAJuI/cuCkuiGjs-c/DT%2525202_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="173" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-DyO9VaC97zQ/Ui3RhjyZXmI/AAAAAAAAJuQ/Yrd4eMnQWGs/s1600-h/DT%2525203%25255B5%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="DT 3" border="0" alt="DT 3" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-kBNXgABSoHY/Ui3RiSLla6I/AAAAAAAAJuY/SCmy-t31h74/DT%2525203_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="173" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-WQlTKl3DAx4/Ui3Rj95rBAI/AAAAAAAAJug/OPtDSUm0K5c/s1600-h/DT%2525204%25255B5%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="DT 4" border="0" alt="DT 4" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-T10rw3QpmgA/Ui3RkgpZfuI/AAAAAAAAJuo/5y0RLx14q-g/DT%2525204_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="170" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-7EHBFHChtSs/Ui3Rl9lg2tI/AAAAAAAAJuw/8j_dlihqG38/s1600-h/DT%2525205%25255B5%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="DT 5" border="0" alt="DT 5" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-ZuojI9jQC4E/Ui3RmhKQUyI/AAAAAAAAJu4/FRzEMuOHafQ/DT%2525205_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="174" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-jlTqq4lLmcM/Ui3Rn_KAntI/AAAAAAAAJvA/rcVICxKxSKY/s1600-h/DT%2525206%25255B5%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="DT 6" border="0" alt="DT 6" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-QwuAKzFdwNI/Ui3RotcJ4mI/AAAAAAAAJvI/X3NsV5BOHcM/DT%2525206_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="173" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-lPhMwxnl9hc/Ui3Rp4s94CI/AAAAAAAAJvQ/YHlwD0cg1dY/s1600-h/DT%2525207%25255B5%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="DT 7" border="0" alt="DT 7" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-EavCNi7cEt4/Ui3RqzSrUmI/AAAAAAAAJvY/hlwfiJe3iOY/DT%2525207_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="172" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-5YhaTQkmxHk/Ui3RrySgvuI/AAAAAAAAJvg/q2ATtlTucbo/s1600-h/DT%2525208%25255B5%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="DT 8" border="0" alt="DT 8" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-UxIEu8vHzzw/Ui3Rsl6uNhI/AAAAAAAAJvo/2B3BLAsLQ6o/DT%2525208_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="174" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-RKnkvXEOpnQ/Ui3Rt6RozvI/AAAAAAAAJvw/OqYiB-fg8To/s1600-h/DT%25252010%25255B5%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="DT 10" border="0" alt="DT 10" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-z8a5EvifNi0/Ui3Ru18_PyI/AAAAAAAAJv4/9jX6b04qnWU/DT%25252010_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="173" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-PhQZhreUefY/Ui3RwLmTCsI/AAAAAAAAJwA/JGO4pEDQEv4/s1600-h/DT%25252011%25255B5%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="DT 11" border="0" alt="DT 11" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-tZJ9oC2Rfoo/Ui3Rw6WCoTI/AAAAAAAAJwI/6FwzQsD4zpM/DT%25252011_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="175" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-MKoED1gIJjc/Ui3RxxqQ6vI/AAAAAAAAJwQ/JcIyiiNsaGk/s1600-h/DT%25252012%25255B5%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="DT 12" border="0" alt="DT 12" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-CHrB2qf6GxY/Ui3Ry-FftlI/AAAAAAAAJwY/6KgoZXpfDfs/DT%25252012_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="173" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-doYW-cxVFnM/Ui3Rz4Pqu2I/AAAAAAAAJwg/ge060CaCjbY/s1600-h/DT%25252013%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="DT 13" border="0" alt="DT 13" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-qO36ZIsjpyo/Ui3R0pXzDBI/AAAAAAAAJwo/6unDdtv89CM/DT%25252013_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="175" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-JTbu22yt6vg/Ui3R1yfSdOI/AAAAAAAAJww/_pnyvbkLkVA/s1600-h/DT%25252014%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="DT 14" border="0" alt="DT 14" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-KFyUxEkJKwo/Ui3R2trJDEI/AAAAAAAAJw4/aRTvamBBEmY/DT%25252014_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="175" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-PGF1fBEqicE/Ui3R3gkcPhI/AAAAAAAAJxA/EEcFO0_g5rQ/s1600-h/DT%25252015%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="DT 15" border="0" alt="DT 15" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-qiMsMX0-J9k/Ui3R4aM3UjI/AAAAAAAAJxI/k7tFf91COvE/DT%25252015_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="173" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-fbjGCM7OnvE/Ui3R5gV9F2I/AAAAAAAAJxQ/mr9BawC54jo/s1600-h/DT%25252016%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="DT 16" border="0" alt="DT 16" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-A-LUtIlyUC0/Ui3R6D638GI/AAAAAAAAJxY/UU7xTy4nfPM/DT%25252016_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="174" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-BRN0DdE-hZA/Ui3R7YiiGRI/AAAAAAAAJxg/DyyFh7Nk41E/s1600-h/DT%25252017%25255B5%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="DT 17" border="0" alt="DT 17" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-xzhgqBHfUsw/Ui3R8FHQLQI/AAAAAAAAJxo/h_iPW8ougOc/DT%25252017_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="174" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-2x94RAhjgjI/Ui3R9R60-II/AAAAAAAAJxw/UQfOmy_GTyY/s1600-h/DT%25252018%25255B5%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="DT 18" border="0" alt="DT 18" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-QGmqAAY-8Ts/Ui3R-J1hMeI/AAAAAAAAJx4/fq_6pfCsYOM/DT%25252018_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="173" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-kNFpiv45UhE/Ui3R_QFnShI/AAAAAAAAJyA/j2mL1S81Uvw/s1600-h/DT%25252019%25255B5%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="DT 19" border="0" alt="DT 19" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-k4p9rntKGB4/Ui3SAAb2wMI/AAAAAAAAJyI/8soBwWjusTU/DT%25252019_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="174" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-ETt16HYSeOM/Ui3SBVDQ81I/AAAAAAAAJyQ/hrVl_c3f0cE/s1600-h/DT%25252020%25255B5%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="DT 20" border="0" alt="DT 20" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-MmE6WB2uzFw/Ui3SCAgDHYI/AAAAAAAAJyY/fRBNAxGBwxk/DT%25252020_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="174" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-ke5B-8neBrI/Ui3SDf_F3nI/AAAAAAAAJyg/h_2MeFsN-jo/s1600-h/DT%25252021%25255B5%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="DT 21" border="0" alt="DT 21" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-GaZFjXpWkkY/Ui3SEU-9H8I/AAAAAAAAJyo/gbThIbFJzA4/DT%25252021_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="174" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-mLGAxMYBHMI/Ui3SFQaQiyI/AAAAAAAAJyw/I5UaMsBOvKI/s1600-h/DT%25252022%25255B5%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="DT 22" border="0" alt="DT 22" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-rsMMjzGcrT0/Ui3SGOXfV_I/AAAAAAAAJy4/ds6RPK9-9RE/DT%25252022_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="174" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-rs8TT_kDQbA/Ui3SHR5lxaI/AAAAAAAAJzA/fsgpNStWBDE/s1600-h/DT%25252023%25255B5%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="DT 23" border="0" alt="DT 23" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-3Q84nuQpz2k/Ui3SIJ8C7pI/AAAAAAAAJzI/5qtg2pgeRDQ/DT%25252023_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="173" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-w4dYndjvjJQ/Ui3SJLv17SI/AAAAAAAAJzQ/pkl2T29z6tY/s1600-h/DT%25252024%25255B5%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="DT 24" border="0" alt="DT 24" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-Bv8leXVwuA8/Ui3SJ7hc_mI/AAAAAAAAJzY/2kNm32ON-bU/DT%25252024_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="175" height="244" /></a></p> <p>The Herald Sun had a lot less coverage. Mostly this is because there were less critical seats in Victoria, and also because Essendon dominated the AFL town. I make it 7 pro-LNP sotries, and 3 anti-ALP.  </p> <p><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-radTDQMDxTI/Ui3SLZcTj0I/AAAAAAAAJzg/WGG7VNPleiM/s1600-h/HS%2525201%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="HS 1" border="0" alt="HS 1" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-Gf_7FNYKAPM/Ui3SMCcqtTI/AAAAAAAAJzo/jbMUGa3p4Zo/HS%2525201_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="169" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-TxmpeOilcv4/Ui3SNFgcGdI/AAAAAAAAJzw/Rhpdi1b4el4/s1600-h/HS%2525202%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="HS 2" border="0" alt="HS 2" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-9QltkHjzFss/Ui3SOAQ16tI/AAAAAAAAJz4/iAZm0z16xqg/HS%2525202_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="170" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-FMnJgnixcdw/Ui3SPfSbIcI/AAAAAAAAJ0A/CCfo3_ZQXj0/s1600-h/HS%2525203%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="HS 3" border="0" alt="HS 3" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-M_F7Kt9BClU/Ui3SP2O1P3I/AAAAAAAAJ0I/37SgZZkloFE/HS%2525203_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="172" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-0gkFprl8NfU/Ui3SRfRdGqI/AAAAAAAAJ0Q/6ef6yHIcmmY/s1600-h/HS%2525204%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="HS 4" border="0" alt="HS 4" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-0nzF9JUyYtw/Ui3SSI8gQCI/AAAAAAAAJ0Y/2es5QTciCms/HS%2525204_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="173" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-f1YATyZB4WI/Ui3STfs0mMI/AAAAAAAAJ0g/6ODSi0Oe8GU/s1600-h/HS%2525205%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="HS 5" border="0" alt="HS 5" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-iV1hGvXhB2E/Ui3SUBEOVCI/AAAAAAAAJ0o/Kud9phpuc3M/HS%2525205_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="173" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-VyKIBsddAaI/Ui3SVY7EW3I/AAAAAAAAJ0w/7DUXLM6mp5s/s1600-h/HS%2525206%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="HS 6" border="0" alt="HS 6" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-Xv6D795gFSM/Ui3SWeNGHjI/AAAAAAAAJ04/0uHONSGTJ0c/HS%2525206_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="171" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-Qjp1telJuLE/Ui3SXdn0VeI/AAAAAAAAJ1A/KIPWIyfTpxM/s1600-h/HS%2525207%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="HS 7" border="0" alt="HS 7" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-v9VHIfZoWzU/Ui3SYdJx_zI/AAAAAAAAJ1I/lFNGysC4rkU/HS%2525207_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="172" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-sHYXuBCwSXg/Ui3SZhzsR-I/AAAAAAAAJ1Q/iUwGhYT6w9w/s1600-h/HS%2525208%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="HS 8" border="0" alt="HS 8" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-ZLopBEuLZDA/Ui3SaUI0-xI/AAAAAAAAJ1Y/SDaD7GK2DTs/HS%2525208_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="173" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-wXH9Ok3vvMw/Ui3Sbg4f-DI/AAAAAAAAJ1g/L5i4SQ4fD3I/s1600-h/HS%2525209%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="HS 9" border="0" alt="HS 9" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-F_O_mszTq78/Ui3ScTZWBBI/AAAAAAAAJ1o/nocJADxBT34/HS%2525209_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="172" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-9p9qAdGMu_s/Ui3Sd6ycVmI/AAAAAAAAJ1w/eL0lxcgriC4/s1600-h/HS%25252010%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="HS 10" border="0" alt="HS 10" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-mTzrgeiAA5o/Ui3Sevhp9KI/AAAAAAAAJ14/g8sIHyHX-7Y/HS%25252010_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="172" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-mUbmmTUrrr4/Ui3SgENR6iI/AAAAAAAAJ2A/94Kjc9OGdYk/s1600-h/HS%25252011%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="HS 11" border="0" alt="HS 11" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-XsaOOyUFd5Y/Ui3Sg8oZ3wI/AAAAAAAAJ2I/urbfzZBcEBo/HS%25252011_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="172" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-Ceg8YppsMLs/Ui3SiGvBp7I/AAAAAAAAJ2Q/wSyDaQIgUpM/s1600-h/HS%25252012%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="HS 12" border="0" alt="HS 12" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-AvdUtCRmZG8/Ui3SjF0nv8I/AAAAAAAAJ2Y/SKdpkvAgSdE/HS%25252012_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="173" height="244" /></a></p> <p>The Courier Mail is another story. Like the Daily Telegraph and Sydney, there were lots of seat sin the QLD that the Liberal Party wanted to win. And so too it seems did the Courier Mail want them to be won.</p> <p>I’ll rate the first as neutral. But from then on it’s 12 anti-ALP, and 2 pro-LNP. </p> <p><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-z4K7Wxsm0xU/Ui3SkMD98lI/AAAAAAAAJ2g/TMutq-u5jF4/s1600-h/CM%2525201%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="CM 1" border="0" alt="CM 1" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-Z8mHruxJatc/Ui3Sk5OdG3I/AAAAAAAAJ2o/SSxh2w_mPfs/CM%2525201_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="173" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-ppx-gu0dDoI/Ui3Sly1v-qI/AAAAAAAAJ2w/IU1Y3QOuJCI/s1600-h/CM%2525202%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="CM 2" border="0" alt="CM 2" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-m_flesQphb8/Ui3SmidOpAI/AAAAAAAAJ24/OUCBMPB6Yn4/CM%2525202_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="173" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-KCFESLNdKhc/Ui3Sn2QepGI/AAAAAAAAJ3A/XyeU0CD7RKk/s1600-h/CM%2525203%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="CM 3" border="0" alt="CM 3" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-QOO0EgVqvcg/Ui3SomFXp8I/AAAAAAAAJ3I/gBYZLQonSdU/CM%2525203_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="173" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-EGbR1X7lHw0/Ui3SqO4nqSI/AAAAAAAAJ3Q/r4zoMa3fQ5w/s1600-h/CM%2525204%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="CM 4" border="0" alt="CM 4" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-6QWYjdv3P-g/Ui3Sqzmei-I/AAAAAAAAJ3Y/VOOfd_8uZCU/CM%2525204_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="173" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-RRaJUbWBY7M/Ui3SsCuYA8I/AAAAAAAAJ3g/1Nhfayw4G14/s1600-h/CM%2525205%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="CM 5" border="0" alt="CM 5" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-YEDsRsuaAbc/Ui3Ssx0KgaI/AAAAAAAAJ3o/aBTNuPDWsT4/CM%2525205_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="173" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-Dc3Nf9rGgDw/Ui3St8eI2FI/AAAAAAAAJ3w/p64stc2XPHg/s1600-h/CM%2525206%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="CM 6" border="0" alt="CM 6" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-uk__NIpCzqQ/Ui3SutkRPdI/AAAAAAAAJ34/92qmeZLkr_E/CM%2525206_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="176" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-7TWOUCNV9UY/Ui3Sv4FLktI/AAAAAAAAJ4A/V3DJzxmBbs4/s1600-h/CM%2525208%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="CM 8" border="0" alt="CM 8" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-XbP7qrsG8qA/Ui3Swq6XyOI/AAAAAAAAJ4I/iQjV2pC0aFY/CM%2525208_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="172" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-B-BAyC9tr0I/Ui3Sx5cIhfI/AAAAAAAAJ4Q/mFggXAzdleE/s1600-h/CM%2525209%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="CM 9" border="0" alt="CM 9" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-D7NHBSbQX88/Ui3Syh99jbI/AAAAAAAAJ4Y/n5R3g_ZNric/CM%2525209_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="174" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-qiJ6_0TVLII/Ui3Szwy1m5I/AAAAAAAAJ4g/1g_lAevSdaU/s1600-h/CM%25252010%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="CM 10" border="0" alt="CM 10" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-rzfMcZNn9do/Ui3S0umrBMI/AAAAAAAAJ4o/nqb5A5XzwFk/CM%25252010_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="175" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-m34HBMp58Nc/Ui3S19LByBI/AAAAAAAAJ4w/5A7NtzDEGTw/s1600-h/CM%25252012%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="CM 12" border="0" alt="CM 12" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-0UUp18Lc4bo/Ui3S2hKr89I/AAAAAAAAJ44/ECiAna6uyxg/CM%25252012_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="175" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-4bJCvSmLKn4/Ui3S3ovhDbI/AAAAAAAAJ5A/1iM_dThBXKA/s1600-h/CM%25252013%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="CM 13" border="0" alt="CM 13" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-uEwQDrGHBQQ/Ui3S4iY-ZoI/AAAAAAAAJ5I/EZ3UvPZ4toI/CM%25252013_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="175" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-exPOeVgeEMw/Ui3S57K1mKI/AAAAAAAAJ5Q/XdGGRPjKWW8/s1600-h/CM%25252014%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="CM 14" border="0" alt="CM 14" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-fqwdUAZqQMM/Ui3S6Z9bt5I/AAAAAAAAJ5Y/IR4nFK4zoyA/CM%25252014_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="173" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-psbvSQVELg4/Ui3S7qJ7IPI/AAAAAAAAJ5g/2IA6xcyRUNw/s1600-h/CM%25252015%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="CM 15" border="0" alt="CM 15" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-XWGZt62BmJU/Ui3S8NPRh0I/AAAAAAAAJ5o/01kT3iE9caQ/CM%25252015_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="176" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-odBvsIDZHs0/Ui3S9ebTPCI/AAAAAAAAJ5w/EyJqjagl3L0/s1600-h/CM%25252016%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="CM 16" border="0" alt="CM 16" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-A1GM-LRtvMc/Ui3S-KHnH4I/AAAAAAAAJ54/ifPmhnLQZBQ/CM%25252016_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="174" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-SaG7wox7PyA/Ui3S_PdGZHI/AAAAAAAAJ6A/2hEC5UWsSpU/s1600-h/CM%25252017%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="CM 17" border="0" alt="CM 17" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-pQmpLfhLgK0/Ui3TAJJrytI/AAAAAAAAJ6I/UiUTb7MM1PM/CM%25252017_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="175" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-mnUYAp8B7Dk/Ui3TBGNLioI/AAAAAAAAJ6Q/kaA-VEBa030/s1600-h/CM%25252018%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="CM 18" border="0" alt="CM 18" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-c-u2Xyq5d50/Ui3TB512U2I/AAAAAAAAJ6Y/2qvYidlE1pA/CM%25252018_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="175" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-zQptc97UrEI/Ui3TDJ0PFBI/AAAAAAAAJ6g/Ic6PFpME41M/s1600-h/CM%25252019%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="CM 19" border="0" alt="CM 19" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-W6d_hhHJhFo/Ui3TDuz7pDI/AAAAAAAAJ6o/3a18oAIztZw/CM%25252019_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="175" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-rtbUvihsAMw/Ui3TE70Hj3I/AAAAAAAAJ6w/vgbPIodubss/s1600-h/CM%25252020%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="CM 20" border="0" alt="CM 20" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-BknsVm_Nm_c/Ui3TFxFdkoI/AAAAAAAAJ64/MxcaKz90ZWk/CM%25252020_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="175" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-mppGK7pit3o/Ui3TGzdw2NI/AAAAAAAAJ7A/fsr1mzk3ats/s1600-h/CM%25252021%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="CM 21" border="0" alt="CM 21" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-4GVmVlIVhXo/Ui3TH_JLsgI/AAAAAAAAJ7I/OuLmxM14A_M/CM%25252021_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="175" height="244" /></a></p> <p>The Advertiser, like the Herald Sun was in a state with few seats expected to change hands. So it wasn’t as big an issue. The Tiser was the most balance. It found room for one pro-ALP article (with a slight slap in the headline). Only 2 anti-ALP ones and 5 pro-LNP</p> <p><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-08DP2bkRQTE/Ui3TJG8Vx3I/AAAAAAAAJ7Q/c628bxO0mO8/s1600-h/Tiser%2525200%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Tiser 0" border="0" alt="Tiser 0" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-mRHhP6KdMHY/Ui3TJ4CYsTI/AAAAAAAAJ7Y/x-bCgj6kIaE/Tiser%2525200_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="171" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-D1exyJ5sbgk/Ui3TLNOVfBI/AAAAAAAAJ7g/7GebzY6CWxw/s1600-h/Tiser%2525201%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Tiser 1" border="0" alt="Tiser 1" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-dZBdA1KquQw/Ui3TLyycwdI/AAAAAAAAJ7o/oWVdBew5GWI/Tiser%2525201_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="173" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-Jan-vkGoJyA/Ui3TNCAwSlI/AAAAAAAAJ7w/PXgAgxJgvfs/s1600-h/Tiser%2525202%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Tiser 2" border="0" alt="Tiser 2" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-PnHPJLCPOwY/Ui3TNrsjYwI/AAAAAAAAJ74/4B1xl-d5Yy4/Tiser%2525202_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="172" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-4mmNw_etqFo/Ui3TO58TX9I/AAAAAAAAJ8A/6BGPNMn6e6A/s1600-h/Tiser%2525203%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Tiser 3" border="0" alt="Tiser 3" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-CkAa4EUtL_E/Ui3TPjKhW2I/AAAAAAAAJ8I/-vZnNcT9ZBY/Tiser%2525203_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="171" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-7qgj1r-jnJU/Ui3TQzaRytI/AAAAAAAAJ8Q/bXLTblx8SqY/s1600-h/Tiser%2525204%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Tiser 4" border="0" alt="Tiser 4" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-ieqkQpl6GqA/Ui3TRUq7kII/AAAAAAAAJ8Y/0JjO7Q5xjvI/Tiser%2525204_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="174" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-uCxJTid3Or0/Ui3TSnCxCrI/AAAAAAAAJ8g/Vr8HWghmdCQ/s1600-h/Tiser%2525205%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Tiser 5" border="0" alt="Tiser 5" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-wAFgYhRLw5k/Ui3TTTcbYmI/AAAAAAAAJ8o/Nf9XORDwZFk/Tiser%2525205_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="173" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-3MxcP4YXJjI/Ui3TUYzJB6I/AAAAAAAAJ8w/Gk3SgZbCkL8/s1600-h/Tiser%2525206%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Tiser 6" border="0" alt="Tiser 6" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-lj106ap6QK4/Ui3TVSGGYyI/AAAAAAAAJ84/cA_jgrbSeRE/Tiser%2525206_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="174" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-WJw9B8GLaRU/Ui3TWqyGkdI/AAAAAAAAJ9A/oG4g7j6ckT0/s1600-h/Tiser%2525207%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Tiser 7" border="0" alt="Tiser 7" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-rhrcXKpyZcs/Ui3TXHklNQI/AAAAAAAAJ9I/szoKsIcdJJU/Tiser%2525207_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="173" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-R3fQsINVNY8/Ui3TYabVICI/AAAAAAAAJ9Q/RGtzuLmT4Sw/s1600-h/Tiser%2525208%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Tiser 8" border="0" alt="Tiser 8" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-GiVC5AiYfXs/Ui3TZOCX5FI/AAAAAAAAJ9Y/4VfFTBu8WYo/Tiser%2525208_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="173" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-B_ue44vKD-E/Ui3TaBfEDrI/AAAAAAAAJ9g/4RbZbUMjgO4/s1600-h/Tiser%2525209%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Tiser 9" border="0" alt="Tiser 9" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-xFtBaC8llMM/Ui3TayR7UrI/AAAAAAAAJ9o/SgLd5rlZriQ/Tiser%2525209_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="174" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-b5NJniVGetQ/Ui3TcLY5OjI/AAAAAAAAJ9w/77cMFBGH2fY/s1600-h/Tiser%25252010%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Tiser 10" border="0" alt="Tiser 10" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-5qgh0fwQBl4/Ui3Tc96i6yI/AAAAAAAAJ94/ARnzDOGnFYY/Tiser%25252010_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="174" height="244" /></a></p> <p>The Sunday Papers were pretty one sided:</p> <p>8 anti-ALP, 3 pro-LNP (not including the ones the day after the election) </p> <p><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-POvjSArhpOE/Ui3TeGjYHAI/AAAAAAAAJ-A/8YkgM0GCaZs/s1600-h/SDT%2525200%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="SDT 0" border="0" alt="SDT 0" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-9Mpi2WaIHfo/Ui3Te0Z5dzI/AAAAAAAAJ-I/tQTOSAOFJE4/SDT%2525200_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="176" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-shjazI0NBFQ/Ui3TgAK9LeI/AAAAAAAAJ-Q/Q4LK2pMyUs8/s1600-h/SM%2525200%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="SM 0" border="0" alt="SM 0" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-SCEejQysD-A/Ui3Tgz4syVI/AAAAAAAAJ-Y/vXdVkzaty7g/SM%2525200_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="175" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-cypNvxft1Ws/Ui3TiHWSDkI/AAAAAAAAJ-g/sajYeTfR12k/s1600-h/SM%2525201%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="SM 1" border="0" alt="SM 1" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-4ZSknSDb_Sc/Ui3Ti9_TnCI/AAAAAAAAJ-o/caMVHJcTWho/SM%2525201_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="174" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-3Glq8trS04A/Ui3TkO8ZQ4I/AAAAAAAAJ-w/BWQmHCocR4g/s1600-h/SHS%2525202%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="SHS 2" border="0" alt="SHS 2" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-RROIWo4rzSA/Ui3Tk-WYRFI/AAAAAAAAJ-4/qXkQXk_qF_4/SHS%2525202_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="170" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-el_NY3jDujc/Ui3Tlx1yolI/AAAAAAAAJ_A/6fozHGePvEA/s1600-h/SDT%2525201%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="SDT 1" border="0" alt="SDT 1" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-a4R8m2CcoRM/Ui3TmnPBVKI/AAAAAAAAJ_I/-E5zt_VbAvw/SDT%2525201_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="178" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-y-0takLopgk/Ui3Tn7L43VI/AAAAAAAAJ_Q/s1266IcyIwE/s1600-h/SM%2525202%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="SM 2" border="0" alt="SM 2" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-UCw7Jwg4IAQ/Ui3Tot2g7BI/AAAAAAAAJ_Y/8-p0sBtJuc4/SM%2525202_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="172" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-eEHHw305Hws/Ui3TpjolpZI/AAAAAAAAJ_g/LRJUFagV0fU/s1600-h/SDT%2525202%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="SDT 2" border="0" alt="SDT 2" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-1dkj_KSC2xQ/Ui3TqVitOJI/AAAAAAAAJ_o/EJdRTm2MPLs/SDT%2525202_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="176" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-I7DcQxltDSk/Ui3Trfu66dI/AAAAAAAAJ_w/LtiYA0hhc8U/s1600-h/SM%2525205%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="SM 5" border="0" alt="SM 5" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-N1BRzYQBzGk/Ui3TsCN_wdI/AAAAAAAAJ_4/EveFAw5GnKw/SM%2525205_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="174" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-JdpL5XeLkeM/Ui3TtWeuCaI/AAAAAAAAKAA/-YUPDyjSIVU/s1600-h/SM%2525206%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="SM 6" border="0" alt="SM 6" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-882iqp4iTJI/Ui3TuC0UM0I/AAAAAAAAKAI/M-Vf5jtEcJw/SM%2525206_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="172" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-mjCUJKMBYGg/Ui3TvmI3UqI/AAAAAAAAKAQ/MDAtxfRNqk0/s1600-h/SDT%2525203%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="SDT 3" border="0" alt="SDT 3" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-x3j_BFBRVKg/Ui3TwVHKjkI/AAAAAAAAKAY/-CpfsO_hLj0/SDT%2525203_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="177" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-mB8uwhSzMx8/Ui3Txd8q71I/AAAAAAAAKAg/MU_inLVDYaQ/s1600-h/SM%2525203%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="SM 3" border="0" alt="SM 3" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-_gv6BlaxoXY/Ui3TyLdWn8I/AAAAAAAAKAo/__ENr4jcuWg/SM%2525203_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="175" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-Or4eMqXWsEo/Ui3TzeorqII/AAAAAAAAKAw/7GZnh6xRvYo/s1600-h/SHS%2525203%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="SHS 3" border="0" alt="SHS 3" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-O4Qg9FylXaY/Ui3T0esRSQI/AAAAAAAAKA4/14iH38Df0Yg/SHS%2525203_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="170" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-ehVl_KHyp-o/Ui3T13emvsI/AAAAAAAAKBA/m4Stdx6sFJE/s1600-h/SDT%2525204%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="SDT 4" border="0" alt="SDT 4" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-zloqzi74otk/Ui3T2uPw4kI/AAAAAAAAKBI/rd---2NIBn4/SDT%2525204_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="178" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-Y7c4yT5YOCc/Ui3T3yrY9zI/AAAAAAAAKBQ/LKetX27vpjo/s1600-h/SM%2525204%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="SM 4" border="0" alt="SM 4" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-PXZOVebmbvA/Ui3T4bcFzuI/AAAAAAAAKBY/wzXW7cZBN0U/SM%2525204_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="175" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-tZjk69LPfrM/Ui3T5Qy0nJI/AAAAAAAAKBg/ZmEgfNlGA6g/s1600-h/SM%2525207%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="SM 7" border="0" alt="SM 7" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-s_br-rZFJ4Y/Ui3T6H3AwKI/AAAAAAAAKBo/H8hJyaPWGW8/SM%2525207_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="169" height="244" /></a></p> <p>The Oz is tougher to score. Multiple headlines, and often good stories below the fold disguised by misleading headlines:</p> <p><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-WF95D-AujQA/Ui3T7eNr1QI/AAAAAAAAKBw/kKM9Z05BCsQ/s1600-h/Oz%2525201%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Oz 1" border="0" alt="Oz 1" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-OOPbTGR-D7o/Ui3T8CSMysI/AAAAAAAAKB4/WzABKqJLoDw/Oz%2525201_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="170" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-hbwM1Rvc3cE/Ui3T9dW10AI/AAAAAAAAKCA/iTBBigqinOI/s1600-h/Oz%2525202%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Oz 2" border="0" alt="Oz 2" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-FBXyICub_uo/Ui3T-MTdQfI/AAAAAAAAKCI/Gh9X9UgEEKs/Oz%2525202_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="173" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-9dqoqFHe6bM/Ui3T_bwGklI/AAAAAAAAKCQ/TLSnJGhKEOU/s1600-h/Oz%2525203%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Oz 3" border="0" alt="Oz 3" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-K2wlLR4rxTk/Ui3T_zZ9BXI/AAAAAAAAKCY/UvdlxqwhKto/Oz%2525203_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="172" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-OX8JpJvXFCs/Ui3UBfryssI/AAAAAAAAKCg/LF-OdXw5uRE/s1600-h/Oz%2525204%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Oz 4" border="0" alt="Oz 4" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-cI7GjWWZClM/Ui3UCNNf7sI/AAAAAAAAKCo/hrvpXzoSZgo/Oz%2525204_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="172" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-dEMiLLvagkU/Ui3UDIOf19I/AAAAAAAAKCw/k0ioZjmkqV8/s1600-h/Oz%2525205%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Oz 5" border="0" alt="Oz 5" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-cJtpfwofSjQ/Ui3UDjNAFcI/AAAAAAAAKC4/O7AUcxshimE/Oz%2525205_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="173" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-YwzkDTEG-L4/Ui3UE0nSm0I/AAAAAAAAKDA/N6uEzh3bCnQ/s1600-h/Oz%2525206%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Oz 6" border="0" alt="Oz 6" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-KYr8fHNWipU/Ui3UFofEzcI/AAAAAAAAKDI/x4jVmPSLlKM/Oz%2525206_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="173" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-Xc0u6AhvQ7o/Ui3UG-LPhJI/AAAAAAAAKDQ/-d636P0tAr8/s1600-h/Oz%2525207%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Oz 7" border="0" alt="Oz 7" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-RH1W2_rErgs/Ui3UHj-kwSI/AAAAAAAAKDY/AqxHOgzfJ84/Oz%2525207_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="172" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-XLJBta0srcU/Ui3UI5hakrI/AAAAAAAAKDg/e9Oj56UYT1U/s1600-h/Oz%2525208%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Oz 8" border="0" alt="Oz 8" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-E2jh8-of-Tc/Ui3UJnWS8GI/AAAAAAAAKDo/q1qwphMjt30/Oz%2525208_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="172" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-qu06jhufpHc/Ui3UKpoVsPI/AAAAAAAAKDw/23Zp715eJuY/s1600-h/Oz%2525209%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Oz 9" border="0" alt="Oz 9" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-h5_1H678C8g/Ui3ULnVU6ZI/AAAAAAAAKD4/shDyar1FNPs/Oz%2525209_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="174" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-ijMlZG6n9ag/Ui3UM5eg-9I/AAAAAAAAKEA/2zMU17Yo1QM/s1600-h/Oz%25252010%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Oz 10" border="0" alt="Oz 10" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-ZtvBA_u49SE/Ui3UNlk9zDI/AAAAAAAAKEI/yP8qtAQDiSk/Oz%25252010_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="174" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-oOqvZIiqfqI/Ui3UOjsefoI/AAAAAAAAKEQ/YhPR0vgB46Y/s1600-h/Oz%25252011%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Oz 11" border="0" alt="Oz 11" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-o77IxFolGXo/Ui3UPJa-uHI/AAAAAAAAKEY/gKyGxuR-RN4/Oz%25252011_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="176" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-oACQW7ZbEa0/Ui3UQRLwDHI/AAAAAAAAKEg/lFXNdCXUwNQ/s1600-h/Oz%25252013%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Oz 13" border="0" alt="Oz 13" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-yF4TJmBoBLQ/Ui3URIUuhpI/AAAAAAAAKEo/Fn7XlaYeNJ8/Oz%25252013_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="171" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-SyfUdCGwgjk/Ui3USeczHqI/AAAAAAAAKEw/tFIhZlZ4TzQ/s1600-h/Oz%25252014%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Oz 14" border="0" alt="Oz 14" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-11Kv1BjdWc8/Ui3UTDk_y8I/AAAAAAAAKE4/UZ_7DVQZueg/Oz%25252014_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="172" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-OvfFBteY1m0/Ui3UUQt7AUI/AAAAAAAAKFA/2Ebap50JT3s/s1600-h/Oz%25252015%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Oz 15" border="0" alt="Oz 15" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-DaQA4_k5bFQ/Ui3UVPeGUdI/AAAAAAAAKFI/iVpn_c4bswY/Oz%25252015_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="171" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-xNnWrp0QESo/Ui3UWTGIw7I/AAAAAAAAKFQ/MsK0uDSbTxo/s1600-h/Oz%252520W%2525201%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Oz W 1" border="0" alt="Oz W 1" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-eIaVvk1peEM/Ui3UXJnKiYI/AAAAAAAAKFY/adyEoXRopt8/Oz%252520W%2525201_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="170" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-A-2IarSmDqs/Ui3UYjDiVWI/AAAAAAAAKFg/t6x9VUT5eeg/s1600-h/Oz%25252016%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Oz 16" border="0" alt="Oz 16" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-Pr7ha78kwxU/Ui3UZTGfFxI/AAAAAAAAKFo/7nXM9QeOFlM/Oz%25252016_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="171" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-fHgKjfusRfs/Ui3UaZBHfvI/AAAAAAAAKFw/5KGMk1s3FAY/s1600-h/Oz%25252017%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Oz 17" border="0" alt="Oz 17" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-9IUls2DPnWk/Ui3UbWIXQJI/AAAAAAAAKF4/LuMy0nTv_Kg/Oz%25252017_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="173" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-ETs86yVf5cg/Ui3UceHjBQI/AAAAAAAAKGA/TJwC_5YCRmY/s1600-h/Oz%252520%25252018%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Oz 18" border="0" alt="Oz 18" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-Y-gQL7KDmvM/Ui3UdANCfJI/AAAAAAAAKGI/i9Iq8PiQWAw/Oz%252520%25252018_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="173" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-qzXHDoYLttg/Ui3UeXWOI8I/AAAAAAAAKGQ/rR3BmiJoSrc/s1600-h/Oz%25252019%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Oz 19" border="0" alt="Oz 19" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-ssM7TBBc82c/Ui3Ue2XmZtI/AAAAAAAAKGY/jJ0woWTXVYs/Oz%25252019_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="174" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-KC48nWqSNlA/Ui3UgGR9T9I/AAAAAAAAKGg/6KpDdokcCjg/s1600-h/Oz%25252020%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Oz 20" border="0" alt="Oz 20" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-AHPQNEjUaVg/Ui3Ug2NEyvI/AAAAAAAAKGk/Wy2bdEhXLeU/Oz%25252020_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="173" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-fI64FhChdyI/Ui3UiICg7lI/AAAAAAAAKGw/AAssSgLdu7w/s1600-h/Oz%252520W%2525202%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Oz W 2" border="0" alt="Oz W 2" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-CFgvVjc38jg/Ui3Ui2sh4CI/AAAAAAAAKG4/HEVtEkA5DQ0/Oz%252520W%2525202_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="174" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-rPk9jjtcmgc/Ui3UjwjE_vI/AAAAAAAAKHA/mDMuy2QwF5s/s1600-h/Oz%25252021%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Oz 21" border="0" alt="Oz 21" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-UBPEsa_Y338/Ui3UklxS4xI/AAAAAAAAKHI/b4NTD1D0d8k/Oz%25252021_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="173" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-7lABMMjwR-g/Ui3UmDLlqjI/AAAAAAAAKHQ/ZR4JQqkvUiE/s1600-h/Oz%25252022%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Oz 22" border="0" alt="Oz 22" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-_hGTwDQJNUE/Ui3UmlJXmjI/AAAAAAAAKHY/0afIRTwR2lA/Oz%25252022_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="174" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-5_Sv-_a0tS4/Ui3Un-xdWHI/AAAAAAAAKHg/OEFazh-1zxk/s1600-h/Oz%25252023%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Oz 23" border="0" alt="Oz 23" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-oyaFRg3zQcs/Ui3Uorf-29I/AAAAAAAAKHo/EVa2Ah-NdAY/Oz%25252023_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="171" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-bxpWV4um2Pk/Ui3Up3pJUqI/AAAAAAAAKHw/zUE7ZEBd7UI/s1600-h/Oz%25252024%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Oz 24" border="0" alt="Oz 24" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-jWN7VmWMnkQ/Ui3UqcsAE4I/AAAAAAAAKH4/dw5ybIGs-s0/Oz%25252024_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="171" height="244" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqVlgrHcpBEANNkZHx4N2ZTmlTuQGtHuV7VzC-g4spboZi_zljx1XLmDD0VgBjfFH9f_sVwO-YslhcCFG-yK_rY9RREcPANz46U4Zz4FMIVLvcWhSkQEh8DAst3MPtzaCmIcIY2Qgukp6Q/s1600-h/Oz%25252025%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Oz 25" border="0" alt="Oz 25" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-_33lVtEVX1w/Ui3UsZP9ryI/AAAAAAAAKII/tTsP_nQJeIE/Oz%25252025_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="172" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-3zdyiZlvXHk/Ui3UtrOrzDI/AAAAAAAAKIQ/vGIhGHm8_9s/s1600-h/Oz%252520W%2525203%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Oz W 3" border="0" alt="Oz W 3" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-4KG4vEdskCk/Ui3Uudp4QNI/AAAAAAAAKIY/28Z7p0N1hIQ/Oz%252520W%2525203_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="172" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-lGgp_kC8880/Ui3Uv3x79VI/AAAAAAAAKIg/LN88-yCUn-U/s1600-h/Oz%25252026%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Oz 26" border="0" alt="Oz 26" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-jIt_vxNXHQY/Ui3Uw-Bk3GI/AAAAAAAAKIo/P-E2DSqpFeI/Oz%25252026_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="172" height="244" /></a></p> <p>The Age is also tough. The headlines are much less emotive than the news.corp</p> <p><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-R0ex6yL70TU/Ui3UyCmOJsI/AAAAAAAAKIw/cDQYD3uRzso/s1600-h/Age%2525201%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Age 1" border="0" alt="Age 1" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-i0YTCy0fzEQ/Ui3Uy5rsj1I/AAAAAAAAKI4/hkAZMW8GVzQ/Age%2525201_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="172" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-Xaw43wGRmIA/Ui3U0GuAy5I/AAAAAAAAKJA/kz3Y56tCW2Y/s1600-h/Age%2525202%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Age 2" border="0" alt="Age 2" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-jTMHwUcrju4/Ui3U081OooI/AAAAAAAAKJI/DPYR-g34vVk/Age%2525202_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="173" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-xpcQM5zzXcs/Ui3U2NgEmoI/AAAAAAAAKJQ/_R-WjK_-YzQ/s1600-h/Age%2525203%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Age 3" border="0" alt="Age 3" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-9Gv02MuY1Yg/Ui3U2tUxAYI/AAAAAAAAKJY/3jAd_3XQ-vs/Age%2525203_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="172" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-HhLW8sVmqMQ/Ui3U32e-lyI/AAAAAAAAKJg/_Yc7Hoegduk/s1600-h/Age%2525204%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Age 4" border="0" alt="Age 4" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-33ksKLzHo5g/Ui3U4utnn9I/AAAAAAAAKJo/ktUej6kd0YQ/Age%2525204_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="172" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-tloc2xubDvU/Ui3U55xiApI/AAAAAAAAKJw/lN6H-cczs2Y/s1600-h/Age%2525205%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Age 5" border="0" alt="Age 5" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-z8e9FFtE8Bc/Ui3U61vSW1I/AAAAAAAAKJ4/NPxYm84RC5c/Age%2525205_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="173" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-YpnMrHFe8-I/Ui3U7-C6IWI/AAAAAAAAKKA/OyFdcM-qUDU/s1600-h/AGe%2525206%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="AGe 6" border="0" alt="AGe 6" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-3IAmxfZ-zMM/Ui3U8t2WTPI/AAAAAAAAKKI/LdVhh1pfxYM/AGe%2525206_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="172" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-VqkokOVFDa8/Ui3U91eYGqI/AAAAAAAAKKQ/wgzwbqcVfKE/s1600-h/Age%2525207%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Age 7" border="0" alt="Age 7" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-c4qZpwH4P40/Ui3U-TvdGqI/AAAAAAAAKKY/_Ksr38PEQ_c/Age%2525207_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="173" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-G_VWRTzZ150/Ui3U_ptb1SI/AAAAAAAAKKg/OaRrN5kqtR8/s1600-h/Age%2525208%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Age 8" border="0" alt="Age 8" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-ASB4sfKoNBQ/Ui3VAZyb-2I/AAAAAAAAKKo/qSI2AxnIx40/Age%2525208_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="173" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-xN5ZPx4Nol8/Ui3VBus0UvI/AAAAAAAAKKw/ozznHA9OIqI/s1600-h/Age%2525209%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Age 9" border="0" alt="Age 9" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-FpwGmjhmgis/Ui3VCFqWxTI/AAAAAAAAKK4/z1lNckyiwPw/Age%2525209_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="172" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-QFxcWeRU8Qw/Ui3VDnb71wI/AAAAAAAAKLA/ngdCHhhTIb0/s1600-h/Age%25252010%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Age 10" border="0" alt="Age 10" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-77sNkWWj0hg/Ui3VEcIoJVI/AAAAAAAAKLI/JTU7qf7Jxz4/Age%25252010_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="176" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-NDTv7CFGOWc/Ui3VFlvu1bI/AAAAAAAAKLQ/WHiIF8GJePU/s1600-h/Age%25252011%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Age 11" border="0" alt="Age 11" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-pg1TBBML77c/Ui3VGhD20YI/AAAAAAAAKLY/0Xa7lA4zECc/Age%25252011_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="171" height="244" /></a></p> <p>The SMH is much the same as The Age</p> <p><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-6tLd6-WFo_4/Ui3VIHNwXOI/AAAAAAAAKLg/LNpTPH_uwNc/s1600-h/SMH%2525201%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="SMH 1" border="0" alt="SMH 1" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-QAB0HaJPke4/Ui3VI624hQI/AAAAAAAAKLo/gV02wkB8-bE/SMH%2525201_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="168" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-uECQKznyceM/Ui3VKJ6a7eI/AAAAAAAAKLw/uiPL37Tawi4/s1600-h/SMH%2525202%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="SMH 2" border="0" alt="SMH 2" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-xsGEJisrJlc/Ui3VK1O2gxI/AAAAAAAAKL4/oQ-1JCNKL10/SMH%2525202_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="169" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-5p44IUJTYAg/Ui3VMOxG6CI/AAAAAAAAKMA/KMYyKAT0k3Q/s1600-h/SMH%2525203%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="SMH 3" border="0" alt="SMH 3" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-nTk90tMQeYQ/Ui3VMvQC7cI/AAAAAAAAKMI/jksEd9OmY6M/SMH%2525203_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="170" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-a338ammwwZA/Ui3VN9keJ4I/AAAAAAAAKMQ/aL1z_HbK-m0/s1600-h/SMH%2525204%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="SMH 4" border="0" alt="SMH 4" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-Oo1AJQgBO6Q/Ui3VOqRD6cI/AAAAAAAAKMY/_qItYTbK91Y/SMH%2525204_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="169" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-FErh32dATdk/Ui3VP-_CJ4I/AAAAAAAAKMg/n-cuELWdAek/s1600-h/SMH%2525205%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="SMH 5" border="0" alt="SMH 5" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-W_dARkuGO50/Ui3VQ91m2fI/AAAAAAAAKMo/RkjeMi8PpRQ/SMH%2525205_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="168" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-YS8MIId7JYc/Ui3VSH0FQlI/AAAAAAAAKMw/fhQz5XE1Wmc/s1600-h/SMH%2525206%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="SMH 6" border="0" alt="SMH 6" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-lZ7xXAGAISg/Ui3VS6bCM7I/AAAAAAAAKM4/og3sYDUcTos/SMH%2525206_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="172" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-MKoYQnwY1j8/Ui3VUAvkJZI/AAAAAAAAKNA/_UctDw6tpe0/s1600-h/SMH%2525207%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="SMH 7" border="0" alt="SMH 7" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-DgexfAOZX90/Ui3VVBgx-kI/AAAAAAAAKNI/XDGoC8stNYE/SMH%2525207_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="168" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-tDhcEhZWHOE/Ui3VW7e534I/AAAAAAAAKNQ/nkj0ipS-B8M/s1600-h/SMH%2525208%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="SMH 8" border="0" alt="SMH 8" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-Txv9rF-ff0s/Ui3VbWdUOTI/AAAAAAAAKNY/WDMzRU-FUTE/SMH%2525208_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="170" height="244" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2kO_9uKVgIs9Z1dSr0jBDNvpZ8zOtJzopyhStvtzP3nEW1Ov3jPN4C4p4xmdPfKr3p6DQ7nnWOYriTPq-dtFzewupO7Lh2kGjIN4-Bk9mP_upO0WCBb-PSBQY8W4YcyWWc22274kXuyfW/s1600-h/SMH%2525209%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="SMH 9" border="0" alt="SMH 9" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-_D623AFcu-o/Ui3VeeNI0FI/AAAAAAAAKNo/z4Se3LTaMBQ/SMH%2525209_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="169" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-gDjpU9v9D8A/Ui3Vfmm5DFI/AAAAAAAAKNw/3eNRhbHco3I/s1600-h/SMH%25252010%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="SMH 10" border="0" alt="SMH 10" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-lYuUiImvcQE/Ui3VgohCc_I/AAAAAAAAKN0/-CZRO_szu4s/SMH%25252010_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="170" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-7tBqHKwqicI/Ui3VhyFz-bI/AAAAAAAAKOA/uieD4ZyhawA/s1600-h/SMH%25252011%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="SMH 11" border="0" alt="SMH 11" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-srDPX0KI7hY/Ui3Vi0-mPpI/AAAAAAAAKOI/xePwnUhthFE/SMH%25252011_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="169" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-Lmaf0OzhAhI/Ui3VkextllI/AAAAAAAAKOQ/BT8N_iUNOTQ/s1600-h/SMH%25252012%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="SMH 12" border="0" alt="SMH 12" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-X4TqkgsOywE/Ui3VlAT2CwI/AAAAAAAAKOY/Vbfck3CXdfk/SMH%25252012_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="171" height="244" /></a><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-Y6LL_eXa61M/Ui3VmXUeANI/AAAAAAAAKOg/mMJcgZpA92Q/s1600-h/SMH%25252013%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="SMH 13" border="0" alt="SMH 13" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-UhbE9q-E5uo/Ui3VnJGDgqI/AAAAAAAAKOo/6YTgqDFiozo/SMH%25252013_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="169" height="244" /></a></p> <p>So there you go. That was the election 2013 from our unbiased media…</p> Greg Jerichohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04956402439870441083noreply@blogger.com12tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8434369190746987531.post-47370566453640438092013-09-06T20:47:00.001+10:002013-09-06T21:51:56.278+10:00Election 2013: Day 33 (or, Wow it seems like only 33 days ago this all started)<p>This last day of the campaign saw Kevin Rudd start off early by attacking the Liberal Party over its release of its <a href="http://lpaweb-static.s3.amazonaws.com/The%20Coalition%E2%80%99s%20Policy%20for%20Better%20Child%20Care%20-%20final.pdf">child care policy</a> last night. </p> <p>Yep, child care. No one cares about, so of course you would release it without any fan fair…</p> <p>So what was in it? Mostly it was about getting rid of the requirement to have child care centres move to 1:4 staff child ratio; remove the requirement for centres to have half of all staff with a diploma level qualification or working towards it, and the other half having, or be working toward, a Certificate III level qualification by 1 January 2014.</p> <p>Similarly removing the need for Centres with 25 or more children will be required to have at least one qualified early childhood teacher.</p> <p>Specifically:</p> <blockquote> <p>“We will seek the cooperation of the States and Territories to pause the <br />requirement that all staff should be qualified until the Australian Children’s Education Quality and Care Authority has undertaken a full review of early childhood qualifications.”</p> </blockquote> <p>As a result they are also axing the Early Years Quality Fund, which was $300m to provided directly to eligible child care providers to improve quality outcomes for children by supplementing wage increases of $3.00 per hour for Certificate III qualified educators.</p> <p>It hides this in a bullshit statement:</p> <blockquote> <p>“The Coalition will undertake a ministerial review of the EYQF establishment process and its operation. The review will examine the EYQF implementation process; in particular, allegations about the fund being established as a vehicle to boost union membership.”</p> </blockquote> <p>A ministerial review? Yeah that’ll be thorough. </p> <p>One small blessing: “If elected, the Coalition will honour funds contracted from the EYQF but no further expenditure will be approved.”</p> <p>So in effect the move of the child care industry towards a more professional sector is pretty much undone. <a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-uVEGAYy6mY4/Uimyts9XDAI/AAAAAAAAJtY/Hen0GMsFX9Y/s1600-h/Coalition%252527s%252520legal%252520aid%252520cuts%252520a%252520%252527slap%252520in%252520the%252520face%252527%252520for%252520Indigenous%252520communities%252520-%252520World%252520news%252520-%252520theguardian.com%25255B3%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; float: right; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Coalition's legal aid cuts a 'slap in the face' for Indigenous communities - World news - theguardian.com" border="0" alt="Coalition's legal aid cuts a 'slap in the face' for Indigenous communities - World news - theguardian.com" align="right" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-2a_VQBQ51LU/Uimyuqsc8QI/AAAAAAAAJtg/_Jb77vJaBAM/Coalition%252527s%252520legal%252520aid%252520cuts%252520a%252520%252527slap%252520in%252520the%252520face%252527%252520for%252520Indigenous%252520communities%252520-%252520World%252520news%252520-%252520theguardian.com_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="401" height="353" /></a></p> <p>Now sure, they can do that. It’s a typical right-wing move done under the guise of “reducing red tape” but given how big an issue child care is, that they put it out at such a late stage is a pretty dodgy way of operating. </p> <p>Similarly they announced they would be cutting <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/06/coalition-legal-aid-cuts-indigenous">$42m in legal aid</a>. This was done in the costings under the innocent line of “Reprioritise Indigenous Policy Reform Program” Let’s just say indigenous groups are <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/06/coalition-legal-aid-cuts-indigenous">rather shirty about</a> finding this out. Especially as it had not been foreshadowed. </p> <p>It also highlights what I was saying yesterday about not being provided any assumptions or details in their costings document. </p> <p>For a party that has been well ahead in the polls, they don’t show much courage.</p> <p>***</p> <p>Today Kevin Rudd was in the seats of Dobell and Robertson. I’m surprised he was there, I thought those seats might be already gone to the Libs. so I guess it either means the ALP thinks they’re a a chance, or that all the other seats are so far gone that these are the only one’s left with any hope!</p> <p>Three years ago Tony Abbott was going on a mad 26 hours straight finals campaign. This time round he’s off to bed early. Rudd has had the better last week, but I think both sides know it hasn’t been good enough.</p> <p>The big failure for the ALP has been to get people engaged. I seriously doubt many actual uncommitted voters have given much thought or care to the goings on of the past 5 weeks. And when you are the party coming from behind, you need to make them care. </p> <p>***</p> <p>At his doorstop this morning Tony Abbott was asked a very good question:</p> <blockquote> <p><b>QUESTION: </b>Mr Abbott, on radio this morning, Andrew Robb said that the low-income super contribution which you're going to cut is the political pain that you have to take in order to live within your means. Why is it that low-income earners are taking the political pain and can you give me an example of one of your policies where high-income earners are taking that pain?</p> </blockquote> <p>So there we go – all he needs to come up with is ONE policy that hurts high-income earners. </p> <p>I won’t even bother relating you his first attempt. He spent a lot of blather on how the Liberal Party are really great with superannuation. Fortunately the journalist didn’t let up: </p> <blockquote> <p><b>QUESTION: </b>But on high-income earners, where are they taking the political pain?</p> </blockquote> <p>OK. All he needs is to come up with one example. Let’s see how he goes</p> <blockquote> <p><b>TONY ABBOTT: </b>Well, it's very important that we try to strengthen our economy. It’s very important to strengthen our economy, and if you look at our paid parental leave policy, for instance, it’s capped at $150,000 a year, 80 per cent of the people who will benefit from our paid parental leave policy are earning less than $65,000. So it is a policy to enable Australians to move forward together, not to play the class war card, not to play the politics of envy which I absolutely reject.</p> </blockquote> <p>Yep. The one policy he came up with as an example of high-income earners being hurt is his paid parental leave because it is capped at $150,000!</p> <p>Oh to be hurt like that.</p> <p>***</p> <p>Yesterday the Libs announced that their budget bottom line would be $6 billion better off. So it was rather surprising to listen to Channel 7 Sydney news tonight and hear Tony Abbott say it would be $9 billion. Cripes money is easy to come by nowadays. (He didn’t get pulled up on it though.) </p> <p>I also noticed that both Channel 9 and 7 used the exact same stock footage of kids looking at things on the internet while reporting on the Libs aborted net filter plan. </p> <p>(This is possibly not the most incisive thing I’ve noticed this campaign). </p> <p>***</p> <p>And so tomorrow we get to have a sausage and vote. But mostly we get to have a sausage. I would have voted early, but I didn’t want to miss out on the sausage sizzle. I have been known on occasion to go to a Bunnings on the weekend not to buy any hardware but just because I know there’ll be a sausage sizzle on. </p> <p>For me in the ACT seat of Fraser, the lower house is a non-event. Andrew Leigh will get home. The only choice is how many will give him their first preference and how many will give him their second preference. </p> <p>But the Senate contest is more interesting. I doubt the Green’s Simon Sheik will get up and beat the Lib’s Zed Seselja, but it would be nice to see. Mostly it would be nice to see because it might at least give the Liberal Party some pause before it goes through its standard policy of thinking all they need to do is cut the public service and everything will be great. </p> <p>The main seats I’ll be watching are </p> <ul> <li>Melbourne – to see if Adam Bandt gets back in. It would be a fair effort, but I think it unlikely </li> <li>Griffith – mostly because I think the individual seat polling of the seat were crap and I think Rudd will get back with a bit of a swing against him, but no real danger </li> <li>Longman – I heard early on the polling wasn’t good for Wyatt Roy, so it’ll be interesting to see if that holds. </li> <li>All of QLD and NSW. Under Gillard the ALP was likely to only have one seat north of Sydney Harbour. So let’s see how they do with Rudd. </li> <li>Indi. I’d wager if you told lefty political tragics that the result would be Abbott wins the election but Mirabella loses her seat, that a fair few would say they could live with that. Her losing would be an absolute net-win for the parliament. </li> <li>WA Senate. Partly because I know him (he launched my book), but mostly because he is one of the smartest people in Parliament I hope Scott Ludlum gets up in the WA Senate race. In a better world he would be Australia’s Communication Minister. The Senate needs people like him – especially when you look at the LNP and ALP Senate benches and you such light weight space fillers who have the job purely because of factional deals. <br />Do the right thing WA – and especially don’t be so dumb as to vote Wikileaks and end up giving your preference to the Nationals. </li> <li>NSW Senate. The LNP ticket has Arthur Sinodinos third, which could mean he gets the last Senate vacancy. If something stupid happens someone like Pauline Hanson could get that spot. Again, the Senate would be poorer if that were the case. </li> </ul> <p>***</p> <p>This election campaign has been a rather different one for me than the last one. In some ways I have felt less connected with it. One of the things about working in the APS is you know the result will determine who is your boss. Whatever happens tomorrow, I’ll still be writing away my posts next week hopefully finding interesting things in economic data that provides people with some knowledge they didn’t have before. </p> <p>This blog has also felt a bit less vital to me – probably because I spend more time trying to think up interesting things to write for Guardian Aus and The Drum.</p> <p>I wasn’t sure how I would cover the election, but I quite like that my two most read Guardian blog posts were both yesterday on the Libs and Greens costings. I also like that my post slapping down the Libs boat buyback scheme got some good coverage. On The Drum my post that got the most discussion was the one suggesting that Rudd had a lot of thought bubbles, but not much of a sense of being in government with developed policies. </p> <p>Last time round I was a pretty small voice mostly trying to find things not being mentioned, but perhaps too often complaining about things not being mentioned. This time I tried not so much to write about the coverage but to try and be a bit of the solution.</p> <p>The experience of having to write on the election as a job is rather different. But to be honest it gives me no sympathy for those others who do it, because it is an incredibly privileged thing to be able to write for large audiences, and being paid to write is about as good as it gets. </p> <p>It does make me perhaps more admiring of those who do it well. In the economics field this means people like Tim Colebatch, Laura Tingle, Ross Gittins, Stephen Long and David Crowe (when he is not forced to have his name attached to shite with <a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-vGO_EjQWKsQ/UgQ3hKTBtzI/AAAAAAAAIeY/yEgjYzVqlzI/s1600-h/PressDisplay.com%252520-%252520Connecting%252520People%252520Through%252520News.png">Adam Creighton</a> or <a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-2_2Fpqv4ZIo/UgtgOBAQylI/AAAAAAAAIoY/WFDA6FWyaj4/s1600-h/Oz%252520fibs%252520on%252520economics%252520yet%252520again%25255B2%25255D.png">David Uren</a>). </p> <p>I should have written more on the Greens policies, though. They were far and away the most honest with voters with their spends and cuts. Anyone looking for the party at this election that tried to bluff their way through with vague announcements and polices pushed out at the last minute will have to look elsewhere.</p> <p>And I also think this election would have been better if Christine Milne was allowed to participate in the leaders debates. At the very least she would have knocked Abbott and Rudd off their talking points a bit. </p> <p>But overall for me, it has been good to get back into some real blogging – as opposed to just using this site to post graphs.</p> <p>I’ll probably however, drop the posts again (they are actually a bit of an effort – especially when like yesterday I also wrote about 2000 other words for the Guardian), but I do plan to write some more stuff on movies and sport and assorted things.</p> <p>Writing about politics and economics is great, but it has (largely by accident) become my job and this blog was always my hobby, so I’m going to see if I can make it a bit more of that.</p> <p>Of course it’ll also still be home to all my graphs – couldn’t stop that!</p> Greg Jerichohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04956402439870441083noreply@blogger.com13tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8434369190746987531.post-40356573012710916432013-09-05T20:26:00.001+10:002013-09-05T20:26:18.419+10:00Election 2013: Day 32 (or, Is that all there is?)<p>Well today we had Kevin Rudd giving his final speech at the National Press Club.</p> <p>He made some good noises that went to Tony Abbott’s line about Australia not getting above its station.  </p> <blockquote> <p>Ben Chifley had ideas above his station when he dared to dream of Australian citizenship rather than simply being a British subject.</p> <p>Gough Whitlam had ideas above his station when he made university access available to all, based on merit.</p> <p>He also had ideas above our national station when he led tiny delegation to Peking in 1971 to begin the process of formally recognising the country that has now become our largest economic partner.</p> <p>Bob Hawke had ideas above his station when he introduced universal health insurance under Medicare – for which we celebrate the 30th anniversary of tomorrow.</p> <p>Paul Keating had ideas above our station when he introduced universal superannuation with the result that 20 years later we now have $1.6 trillion under management and the fourth largest funds management industry in the world.</p> </blockquote> <p>It was good ALP-True Believer stuff. </p> <p>I think Rudd has actually had a pretty good week – probably his best week. He needed to be operating at this level all weeks however.</p> <p>His pitch in the end became very much the “if you have doubts about Abbott, don’t vote for him”.    </p> <p>And while this might get a few changing their mind, I’m always pretty sceptical of those who think their side will win because once voters get in the ballot box they won’t be able to bring themselves to vote for the other guy. </p> <p>The questions asked of Rudd weren’t all that special, but David Crowe of The Australian asked an excellent one about the homeless. Tackling homelessness was a big pitch of Rudd in 2007; it has rather fallen off the radar. </p> <p>***</p> <p>And so today at 2:32pm Joe Hockey and Andrew Robb stepped up to release all their “costings". By 2:55pm the press conference was all done. </p> <p><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-DrN_0gmq-Ww/UihcMXnzxXI/AAAAAAAAJsQ/481HDQcc6tw/s1600-h/Coalition%252520costings-%252520Joe%252520Hockey%25252C%252520Andrew%252520Robb%252520reveal%252520foreign%252520aid%252520to%252520take%252520%2525244%252520billion%252520hit%252520-%252520ABC%252520News%252520%252528Australian%252520Broadcasting%252520Corporation%252529%25255B4%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Coalition costings- Joe Hockey, Andrew Robb reveal foreign aid to take $4 billion hit - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)" border="0" alt="Coalition costings- Joe Hockey, Andrew Robb reveal foreign aid to take $4 billion hit - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-G1vdU6ZATm8/UihcNesHsGI/AAAAAAAAJsY/q89y1qvDNd8/Coalition%252520costings-%252520Joe%252520Hockey%25252C%252520Andrew%252520Robb%252520reveal%252520foreign%252520aid%252520to%252520take%252520%2525244%252520billion%252520hit%252520-%252520ABC%252520News%252520%252528Australian%252520Broadcasting%252520Corporation%252529_thumb%25255B2%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="615" height="347" /></a></p> <p>It was an embarrassing performance, most memorable for Hockey sweating so profusely that I am sure some journalists present were wondering whether or not to call an ambulance. It reminded me of <em>Broadcast News</em>:</p> <blockquote> <p><a href="http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0000456/?ref_=tt_trv_qu">Jane Craig</a>: People called in complaining about your sweating? <br /><a href="http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0000983/?ref_=tt_trv_qu">Aaron Altman</a>: No, NICE calls, worried that I was having a heart attack.</p> </blockquote> <p>But the more silly thing about it was Hockey attempting to tell us that after all his talk of a budget emergency in the end his Budget position is just $6b better than the ALP over the next 4 years – or around 0.36% of the budget revenue better. </p> <p>I wrote about it in the Guardian <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2013/sep/05/coalition-costings-political-fluff?CMP=twt_gu&commentpage=1">here</a>. (so go there!)</p> <p>Their “costings” were just a list of their policy costs. Do they add up? I guess so. But I have no idea <em>why</em> they add up to the number they do. </p> <p>I guess we’ll get that information after we’ve all voted. </p> <p>That sounds fair. </p> <p>The big cut announced today was a $4.5b cut in the growth of foreign aid. </p> <p>How brave of them.</p> <p>The ALP has also done this type of thing – deferring promised foreign aid to later years. It’s a cut that is not really a cut. The spend does nothing to affect domestic demand. And it is eminently affordable. </p> <p>But no, now it is the first thing “deferred”. </p> <p>Our two main political parties have become like people who live in a McMansion and who when the Red Cross come knocking say, “Oh gee, I’d love to but I don’t have any cash on me”.</p> <p>Even more laughable tonight on ABC 7:30 Hockey couldn't even say how the aid budget would be cut and he said that he didn’t want to make up foreign aid policy “on the run”. </p> <p>Gotta love that you can say you’ll cut $4.5b out of something and not know how it will be done. </p> <p>Genius.</p> <p>The Libs also went the other usual savings measure of looking for a bigger efficiency dividend from the public service – calling for another 0.25% “efficiency dividend” to get another $428 million. </p> <p>They also has deferred the water buyback of the Murray Darling scheme for another $650m in “savings”. </p> <p>Pathetic. </p> <p>Abbott keeps talking about under promising and over delivering, but here they’ve over bullshitted and under delivered. </p> <p>As I wrote in my Guardian piece, it’s pretty clear Abbott is, like Campbell Newman, leaving any big domestic cuts for after the election (how big will be determined by the size of their victory). The wonderful Commission of Audit will do that work for him. As he said today He has made <a href="http://www.tonyabbott.com.au/News/tabid/94/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/9495/Joint-Press-Conference-Brisbane-Queensland.aspx">it pretty clear</a></p> <blockquote> <p><strong>QUESTION: </strong>Mr Abbott, with respect, I was asking about the commission of audit there and exactly what areas will be quarantined – are there some areas that would not be touched?</p> </blockquote> <blockquote> <p><strong>TONY ABBOTT: </strong>I'm very happy to have the commission of audit go through the whole of the administration, to tell us whether, in their opinion, they think things can be done better and where things can be done better, more frugally, more prudently, with more benefit for taxpayers. Surely it would be a foolish government that would ignore that.</p> </blockquote> <p>Expect the “Budget Emergency” to be wheeled out again after the election. You don’t do a Commission of Audit to not find anything. </p> <p>***</p> <p>So what does Abbott see Australia looking like? Well it is one with roads and not public transport. </p> <p>The “costings” today have $11.5b spent all on roads. And the specific cuts they’ve made in infrastructure? All from rail and public transport (and $40m on a bridge)</p> <p><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-KNUqmN1vBk0/UihcOb7BMoI/AAAAAAAAJsg/MBEnZqziDHM/s1600-h/Roads%252520good%252520trains%252520bad%25255B4%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Roads good trains bad" border="0" alt="Roads good trains bad" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-lKmS4DNDT-4/UihcPD_nILI/AAAAAAAAJso/J0qNBDlkfUc/Roads%252520good%252520trains%252520bad_thumb%25255B2%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="627" height="706" /></a></p> <p>***</p> <p>Today as well the Liberal Party released a policy for a default Internet Filter.  It was under the guise of a policy for “<a href="http://www.liberal.org.au/latest-news/2013/09/05/coalitions-policy-enhance-online-safety-children">Online Safety for Children</a>”.</p> <p><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpMhTGB4gkB4tWSNyTsW8ASdwlarRjP9bm4pHjQUQ6euG0VMbgK0FokQfZhyphenhyphenRykya4J9mm5N9bcR4OaVSqv8cy08XiWSuyolLGu4qrrG1OLN-tm_WhgEMBhSYn0eLw_imkYnCRIK_SpttF/s1600-h/Image.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px 10px 0px 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; float: left; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="lpaweb-static.s3.amazonaws.com-Coalition 2013 Election Policy – Enhance Online Safety - final.pdf" border="0" alt="lpaweb-static.s3.amazonaws.com-Coalition 2013 Election Policy – Enhance Online Safety - final.pdf" align="left" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-qQmoodztGUk/UihcQWf0r0I/AAAAAAAAJs4/bfAgiUps_4Q/Image.png?imgmax=800" width="244" height="194" /></a></p> <p> The policy announced was:</p> <blockquote> <p>“We will introduce nationally agreed default safety standards for smartphones and other devices, and internet access services. As has recently been achieved in the United Kingdom, we expect these standards will:</p> <p>• involve mobile phone operators installing adult content filters on phones which will be switched on as the default unless the customer proves he or she is at least 18 years of age; and <br />• involve major internet service providers providing home network filters for all new home broadband services, which will be switched on as the default unless the <br />customer specifies otherwise”</p> </blockquote> <p>It is incredibly laughable, and wouldn't work. It would not achieve any of its aim of protecting children and also it goes against everything said by people like Malcolm Turnbull and Joe Hockey about the ALP’s attempted policy of a mandatory filter. </p> <p>Backbencher Paul Fletcher talked to IT website Z<a href="http://www.zdnet.com/au/coalition-confirms-internet-filtering-by-default-7000020272/">Dnet about it, saying</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p>“The key thing is it is an opt-out, so it will be open to the customer to call up and say, 'look, I don't want this', and indeed, we will work with the industry to make this a streamlined and efficient process”</p> </blockquote> <p>So OK. They have a stupid policy released at the last minute. As dodgy as all get out, especially given how much of a vote changer this issue is for young voters who are pretty sceptical about any attempts to censor the internet. </p> <p>Shifty work. </p> <p>But then Malcolm Turnbull took to Twitter to admit a massive stuff up (read from the bottom up):</p> <p><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-wQkFMiGWOR0/UihcQ8YD6XI/AAAAAAAAJtA/Wz53OZ5_t4Q/s1600-h/Malcolm%252520Turnbull%252520%252528TurnbullMalcolm%252529%252520on%252520Twitter%25255B4%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Malcolm Turnbull (TurnbullMalcolm) on Twitter" border="0" alt="Malcolm Turnbull (TurnbullMalcolm) on Twitter" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-pzfx0yrSnSc/UihcSPP1QLI/AAAAAAAAJtI/uUI69-c3UjE/Malcolm%252520Turnbull%252520%252528TurnbullMalcolm%252529%252520on%252520Twitter_thumb%25255B2%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="503" height="566" /></a></p> <p>A statement was released saying:</p> <blockquote> <p>The Coalition has never supported mandatory internet filtering. Indeed, we have a long record of opposing it.</p> <p>The policy which was issued today was poorly worded and incorrectly indicated that the Coalition supported an “opt out” system of internet filtering for both mobile and fixed line services. That is not our policy and never has been.</p> <p>The correct position is that the Coalition will encourage mobile phone and internet service providers to make available software which parents can choose to install on their own devices to protect their children from inappropriate material.</p> <p>The policy posted online today is being replaced with the correct version.</p> </blockquote> <p>“Poorly worded” I guess its the new euphemism for completely screwed up.  The policy is no longer on the list of the Libs’ polices (but it still lives <a href="http://lpaweb-static.s3.amazonaws.com/Coalition%202013%20Election%20Policy%20%E2%80%93%20Enhance%20Online%20Safety%20-%20final.pdf">on the net</a>)</p> <p>So how did this 11 page document get released without any checks by the Minister in charge of the policy?</p> <p>Why did Paul Fletcher say “the key thing is it an opt-out”? Was he just poorly worded?</p> <p>Is Malcolm Turnbull being so left out of the process that a backbencher is more aware of the Liberal Party communication policy than he is? </p> <p>Not a bad effort from the wannabe Government. Good thing they’re not campaigning on being a safe pair of hands. </p> Greg Jerichohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04956402439870441083noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8434369190746987531.post-48530197902101134502013-09-04T22:35:00.001+10:002013-09-04T23:16:30.683+10:00Election 2013: Day 31 (or, GDP grows by 2.5%, LNP costings sightings grows by 0%)<p>The last period of this election is rather different to 2010. I had a look back at my election posts from the last election and saw that on <a href="http://grogsgamut.blogspot.com.au/2010/08/election-2010-day-33-or-oh-rooty-q-i.html">the final Wednesday</a> there was the people's forum n Brisbane. This time round, Tony Abbott has no desire at this late stage to do anything that might risk his position in front. </p> <p>Back then the Liberal Party costings were also an issue. They actually released them on the last Wednesday, so even with the Parliamentary Budget Office the Liberal Party has not been able to improve on that low bar. </p> <p>Back then Peter Martin gave me his thoughts <a href="https://twitter.com/1petermartin/status/21480265025">via Twitter</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p>Costings just one line per item - no assumptions, no reasoning. Treasury and Finance would have provided a touch more.</p> </blockquote> <p>The more things change I guess…</p> <p>(As an aside, my <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-04/jericho-election-policy-costings/4933416">Drum piece today</a> discussing this very issue.) </p> <p>***</p> <p>Today started off with a carry over of a pretty dumb story from last night’s <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2013/s3840482.htm">Lateline</a>. On it, the Chairman of Fairfax Roger Corbett criticised Kevin Rudd. As the chairman of a major media company and a director of the RBA his opinion carries some weight. </p> <p>But as he is also a member of the Liberal Party let’s just say his opinion at this time is about as stunning as Paul Keating saying he doesn’t rate Tony Abbott. </p> <p>And given Corbett was tonight at a Liberal Party fundraiser, let’s not even pretend his interview is just some unbiased, objective statement.</p> <p>I think Emma Alberici is a great host of Lateline, but his political allegiances <strong>should</strong> have been made clear right up front.  </p> <p>And yet of course Kevin Rudd had to answer questions on it…</p> <p>***</p> <p>Last night on Big Brother the leaders all had a video played to the housemates on why they should vote for them. </p> <p>Let us pause for a second and just consider that they are doing this for a reality show…</p> <p>…</p> <p>OK, but when we see what Tony Abbott came up with, we see that once again he had his daughters along as props. We know they are just props because he told everyone what their real value is:</p> <p><iframe height="360" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/OmyoRNL0hrQ" frameborder="0" width="480" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe></p> <p>I know of no father who would ever describe his daughters to a national TV audience as “not bad looking” with a dumb grin that makes you use all your will power to keep down your dinner. </p> <p>His daughters have been used by the campaign as very effective window dressing. Passive and pretty is the image they are required to present – read out some painstakingly work-shopped lines at the party launch and spend the rest of the month walking around smiling and laughing in a way that does not betray they actually have brains – which they obviously do. </p> <p>I think it is abundantly clear the Liberal Party is desperate to present the image to the voters that an Abbott Government would be the complete opposite of the situation we had with a childless woman as PM.</p> <p>The traditional order is back! And now that the pesky Gillard is no longer around they can do it and not be accused of using the daughters in a shameless manner.</p> <p>But they are. </p> <p>And the great thing is his daughters can play a prominent role in the campaign but because they are his daughters and not running for office they are off limits and don’t need to be held to account or answer any tough questions. </p> <p>I would ask if they think their being held up as role models where their looks are treated as a political asset is what they think is appropriate for women in 2013. </p> <p>I would also say either put your name on a ballot or get off the stage. </p> <p>***</p> <p>Today the latest <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/5206.0?OpenDocument">GDP figures came out</a>. I’ll be covering these a bit in my next Guardian post, but here’s the take away graphs.</p> <p>Firstly, quarterly growth was 0.6% in seasonally adjusted terms and 0.5% in trend terms. This was slightly slightly above expectations. </p> <p>The market reacted in their usual calm and non-caffeinated manner:</p> <p><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-yCEfn21kT7w/Uico3uNKQ9I/AAAAAAAAJps/iJswHTbj4Dc/s1600-h/Today%252527s%252520dollar%25255B3%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Today's dollar" border="0" alt="Today's dollar" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-ABEvVQLjkxE/Uico4uQEtfI/AAAAAAAAJp0/6nrcXKwAxqA/Today%252527s%252520dollar_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="648" height="436" /></a></p> <p>So the dollar rose a cent in the nine hours after the figures came out. Clearly they think slightly above expectations means no more interest rate cuts. </p> <p>Ok, let’s have a look at some graphs</p> <p><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-C0HiuHUYxcA/Uico5T3pN9I/AAAAAAAAJp8/HqrPQCH28Ww/s1600-h/image%25255B3%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-edeEbpeqPTE/Uico6HGCd8I/AAAAAAAAJqE/HHzggWC52uw/image_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="644" height="391" /></a></p> <p>So you can see while growth might have been above expectations it is still below average.</p> <p>In annual terms the same thing – trend growth of 2.5%, a bit below the average (OK 0.5 percentage points below average):</p> <p><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-OTo6x7vaBw8/Uico64lH28I/AAAAAAAAJqQ/ncSiDxY9YXk/s1600-h/image%25255B7%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-sfkWJ2-h9pM/Uico7kGNVBI/AAAAAAAAJqY/esz0uIuj0YA/image_thumb%25255B3%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="649" height="335" /></a></p> <p>Given you need around 3.2% annual growth to keep the unemployment rate steady, unless we see a pick up, expect the unemployment rate to go up by another 0.4% over the next year.</p> <p>The Nominal GDP figures were also quite interesting – still very low. The GDP deflator (the inflation rate proxy used in the national accounts) is still incredibly low at 0.4%:</p> <p><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-8Yby23SeynI/Uico8HQYbfI/AAAAAAAAJqg/UqkFtGEWIAU/s1600-h/image%25255B11%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-NOQ_KOpdiZc/Uico885AnmI/AAAAAAAAJqo/o8LBzoH3JDs/image_thumb%25255B5%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="654" height="380" /></a></p> <p>So thus the nominal GDP growth (which is GDP growth in current dollars) is also very low:</p> <p><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-_akceyKWedg/Uico9kDvEDI/AAAAAAAAJqw/5Uh6X_jGLQg/s1600-h/image%25255B48%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-SOlo2D-qLq4/Uico-Ugr3-I/AAAAAAAAJq4/r2Y-tt8kGLY/image_thumb%25255B24%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="661" height="360" /></a></p> <p>As you can see it is well below the 10 year average – more than half – even though real GDP growth is just a smidge below its 10 year average. .</p> <p>And given NGDP influences the amount of tax revenue you can see things are not exactly going to go boom time. </p> <p>Here’s a comparison of real and nominal GDP growth from 2002 until the GFC hit, and in the time since then:</p> <p><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-CEuogUOAoXc/Uico-gYMVFI/AAAAAAAAJrA/LR9tY2Fv_TM/s1600-h/image%25255B20%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-fsi4zhtC2Ro/Uico_ZqozBI/AAAAAAAAJrI/DaGgz9g3J0I/image_thumb%25255B10%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="654" height="345" /></a></p> <p>If the relationship was the same over the past 4 years as it was in 2002-2009 nominal GDP growth would have average 5.95% instead of 4.57%. </p> <p>In <a href="http://www.treasury.gov.au/~/media/Treasury/Publications%20and%20Media/Publications/2013/Pre-Election%20Economic%20and%20Fiscal%20Outlook%202013/Downloads/PDF/Appendix_D.ashx">the PEFO</a>, the Treasury estimated that a fall in the nominal GDP of 1% due to a fall in the terms of trade would likely cause a $3b decrease in tax revenue in the first year and $6b in the next. </p> <p>For the past 4 years we’ve had average nominal GDP growth around 1.4% below what we would have expected prior to the GFC. </p> <p>And with that ladies and gentlemen goes much of a chance of having a budget surplus. </p> <p>I should add, the 2002-2009 growth is not coming back. So get used to this sluggish nominal GDP growth. It’s the new normal, and political parties need to realise it (which I think they have mostly now have).   </p> <p>But let’s also look at productivity, because we all know it is a national crisis. Indeed, the editor of the AFR, Michael Stutchbury, yesterday wrote:</p> <blockquote> <p>Mr Abbott and his team must build the case for a systemic rethink, not to strip workers’ rights but to promote the sort of workplace culture that will make them and their businesses more productive and prosperous. They will need to do this because <strong>reviving the economy’s productivity</strong> is the only way Mr Abbott can deliver his promise to improve the lot of working Australians.</p> </blockquote> <p>Reviving? Geez, it must be falling. Let’s have a look…</p> <p>Well we had the 10th quarter in a row of positive productivity growth. The best positive run since September 2002 (yes, over a decade ago) </p> <p><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-uGFiN88dYkY/Uico_10UXbI/AAAAAAAAJrQ/_9zLKTB8yv8/s1600-h/image%25255B27%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-cksCozqvgp8/UicpAvrGoUI/AAAAAAAAJrY/agCsz4OdtBA/image_thumb%25255B13%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="640" height="325" /></a></p> <p>In annual terms that look like this:</p> <p><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-FG_lbFQ2goM/UicpBDsdsbI/AAAAAAAAJrg/1vnFuhGkY-0/s1600-h/image%25255B31%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-B4q5ympg-7I/UicpBn-4vSI/AAAAAAAAJro/vb-2fuzwTp0/image_thumb%25255B15%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="636" height="331" /></a></p> <p>But looking at productivity growth in annual terms is a bit simplistic. There can be blips and bounces. So let’s look at the annual rate, but averaged over five years:</p> <p><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-cGZQQ8oB5kM/UicpCKoaOdI/AAAAAAAAJrw/9ny8SyiuSxY/s1600-h/image%25255B44%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-iNpIcMfpYeg/UicpC9m1a7I/AAAAAAAAJr4/hF4Rv2yH8nU/image_thumb%25255B22%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="642" height="389" /></a></p> <p>Yes, clearly Mr Abbott needs to revive our productivity. With luck he can take it back to where it was the last time the Libs were in power….</p> Greg Jerichohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04956402439870441083noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8434369190746987531.post-86500839358230628892013-09-03T22:14:00.001+10:002013-09-03T22:14:14.874+10:00Election 2013: Day 30 (or, let’s go on a mandate)<p>So last night Kevin Rudd on QANDA was good. Real good. Sort of, where the bloody hell have been for 4 weeks, good. </p> <p>The questions were decidedly not soft ball ones. There was some if not angry, pretty miffed people in the audience and they wanted their say. He also had Tony Jones sitting next to him. And I don’t know if Rudd once ran over Jones's foot in the ABC car park or something, but Jones didn’t seem particularly enamoured with Rudd. </p> <p>And then Rudd talked about same sex marriage.</p> <p>No doubt you’ve all seen it, but here it is anyway:</p> <p><iframe height="360" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/TzV1r5SCc8U" frameborder="0" width="480" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe></p> <p>Now you can say, sure Rudd was a bit West Wingish, but I think it was a pretty instinctive response from him. The questioner was pretty much suggesting Rudd was not a Christian. To say to someone who considers themselves a Christian “if you call yourself a Christian why don’t you believe because the words of Jesus in the Bible” is pretty strong stuff. I’m not surprised Rudd answered the way he did. It’s pretty much how I would’ve answered. </p> <p>Rudd could have played it easy and blathered about “broad church” blah blah. But he didn’t. Now you can argue the theology of his statement about the Bible considering slavery a natural condition. But it’s no easy thing for a politician to essentially call someone a bigot.  And Rudd was also pretty well saying, if that’s what you believe then don’t vote for me. </p> <p>Maybe if he was ahead in the polls he would not have been so bold. </p> <p>***</p> <p>Today the National Press Club debate was on asylum seekers. It was tough watching for those who were eating lunch, but at least it confirmed that Scott Morrison and Tony Abbott are complete cowards on asylum seekers. </p> <p>Morrison confirmed that they would not automatically announce if any asylum seeker boat came into our waters. Morrison in a typically pathetic move announced it would be up the “the three star general” in charge of the brain dead “Operation Sovereign Boarders”. </p> <p>Yeah, it’s really a national security issue. From the bloke who has trumpeted loudly every boat arrival for the past 4 years like he is doing PR for people smugglers for the past 4 years, this policy shows Morrison is not just a hypocrite, but a gutless one at that. </p> <p>It’s also dumb. There is absolutely no doubt the information will leak. All Morrison is doing is forcing the military to have to consider whether or not to appear politicised.</p> <p>Morrison is the type of person whom those in the army would call a waste of rations. </p> <p>***</p> <p>Today the narrative seemed to be about what will happen after the Liberal Party wins the election. Mark Butler on Fran Kelly this morning was pretty much asked nothing but. Tony Abbott is running hard this week on the carbon tax. </p> <p>It’s an odd choice because despite what he would like to believe I don’t think it is much of a vote changer now. I think more he is doing it to try and really lock in the sense that he will have a mandate after the election to get rid of it. </p> <p>But mandate are always more in the eye of the beholder than others. </p> <p>Take Tony Abbott two weeks (!) after the 2007 election writing in the an op-ed <a href="http://tonyabbott.com.au/LatestNews/ArticleswrittenbyTony/tabid/87/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/6890/OPPOSITION-TOO-HAS-PROMISES-TO-KEEP.aspx">in the SMH</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p>[Brendan] Nelson is right to resist the intellectual bullying inherent in talk of “mandates”. What exactly is Rudd’s mandate anyway: to be an economic conservative or an old-fashioned Christian socialist? </p> <p><strong>The elected Opposition is no less entitled than the elected Government to exercise judgement and to try to keep its election commitments</strong>. In opposition between 1983 and 1996, the Coalition made two big mistakes. This time, there is little danger that the Liberal Party will repudiate its former leadership or its achievements in government.</p> </blockquote> <p>Tony Abbott may be about to reap what he sowed.</p> <p>The ALP are going to an election to block any attempts to repeal the price on carbon. So too are the Greens. If they roll on this they will be giving up any reason to think them worthy of your vote. A party needs to stick to its principles (such that they are) even when in opposition. </p> <p>***</p> <p>Was there any new policy today. Nah. If there was anything good left to announce it would have already been announced. Rudd was in Tasmania to deliver a greatest hits of things the ALP has done for Tasmania. Abbott meanwhile was in Adelaide talking about the carbon tax. </p> <p>***</p> <p>Today the RBA announced no change to interest rates. This was no shock whatsoever. Tomorrow the GDP figures come out. Always fun for econ nerds, but I don’t think there will be too much that is newsworthy in the headline figures. A slight fall perhaps, but a longer run of years with a fall in GDP will continue. </p> Greg Jerichohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04956402439870441083noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8434369190746987531.post-62095188344848103772013-09-02T21:21:00.001+10:002013-09-02T21:21:25.622+10:00Election 2013: Day 29 (or, build a bridge and not get over it)<p>Blogging is like going to the gym. When you do it everyday it is easy to do it the next day. You get into a rhythm. But if you stop for a few days, suddenly getting back to it feels like a massive effort. </p> <p>And so I turn back over the day’s events and I wonder if I really took in much. I was working/writing for most of the day and I had the TV on the background, but it was a bit of an odd day in that I didn’t feel much need to keep my ear’s pricked in case anything interesting was said. </p> <p>Tony Abbott was at the National Press Club. He said nothing we hadn’t all heard a very many times before. In the question and answer session the best one related to the dopey Direct Action policy where he confirmed what has long been assumed – namely that the aim of the policy is to spend a set amount of money on Direct Action rather than actually achieving a 5% reduction in emissions from 2000 levels by 2020.</p> <p>He remains “confident” that this can be done for the money spent. But given we have not seen anything resembling independent costings of the policy, we’ll take that confidence to mean he is confident that not enough voters care for it to be an election issue. </p> <p>Could you imagine a politician saying if s/he had proposed a certain amount of money to build a bridge that s/he remained confident the money would be enough to complete the work, but if not, well then s/he would not spend anymore money on it. </p> <p>You budget to build a bridge. You get independent agencies to check your costings. You put in place good management plans. But the one thing you don’t say is that the money is capped and no more will be spent. </p> <p>But that is where we are with Abbott;s climate change plan. And it is because it – as I have so often said – is a policy for people who want to at least think something is being done on climate change, but who don’t really care too much about it. </p> <p>He also announced his Defence policy with Senator David Johnston. The big policy announcement? They’re going to have another Defence White Paper. We clearly need one because the last one was done all the way back in May. </p> <p>Other than that the policy to buy drones was dumped, but the policy to increase defence spending was affirmed. </p> <p>***</p> <p>Kevin Rudd today did a bit of touring around QLD. Interestingly he was not jus tin ALP seats. So either he is feeling confident about picking up the seats, or he’s deluded and doesn’t want anyone to think he is going to lose. </p> <p>His big weekend involved the ALP launch. I thought his speech was OK. I wasn’t sure why his big policy pitch was to small business owners. His policy regarding TAFE was good as far as it goes. But the policy to take over TAFEs was a bit odd given it pretty much brought up memories of his claim to take over hospitals. </p> <p>Also in 2007 the ALP loved TAFE being run by the states and closed the pretty redundant Howard Govt funded Australian Technical Colleges. </p> <p>***</p> <p>Tonight Abbott was on the 7:30 Report. He did alright. Leigh Sales skewered him pretty nicely when she asked him to “unpack” his statements about the “baddies against the baddies”. He couldn’t name any other group, let alone any other “baddie” than AL Qaeda when asked to explain his statement. He did a fair bit of fumbling and umming and it was abundantly clear he hadn’t even read the excellent <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2013/08/29/9-questions-about-syria-you-were-too-embarrassed-to-ask/?tid=pm_pop">9 Questions You Were Too Afraid to Ask about Syria</a> from the Washington Post.  </p> <p>But it’s a war that won’t involve Australian troops, and even if it did I doubt it’d matter how poorly he answers on it. </p> <p>***</p> <p>Kevin Rudd is on QANDA tonight. </p> <p>***</p> <p>Tomorrow the RBA will announce its interest rate decision. There won’t be any change, and the statement from the RBA will likely contain nothing that is all that interesting. </p> Greg Jerichohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04956402439870441083noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8434369190746987531.post-81753145427196394822013-08-28T21:20:00.001+10:002013-08-28T21:20:19.688+10:00Election 2013: Day 24 (or, Debate Double Header)<p>Today was about debates. First the Treasurer's debate at the National Press Club, and then the Leaders debate at Rooty Hill.</p> <p>Prior to the Treasurer's debate Joe Hockey and Andrew Robb realised some of their savings. The $31 billion worth came out not in the PBO official costings format but the Libs’ own version.</p> <p>I’d much prefer to see the actual PBO document like the Greens have been more than happy to display, there does however seem to be a bit of argy bargy over the savings of the 12,000 reduction in the public service, with the ALP claiming they have a PBO costing that suggests 20,000 fewer public servants would save the amount the Libs are claiming for 12,000. There were <a href="http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/labor-analysis-will-discredit-public-service-job-cut-claims-20130827-2sonw.html">reports that today</a> the ALP would release these costings, but I have yet to see them anywhere. </p> <p>Moreover I largely agree with Laura Tingle in <a href="http://www.afr.com/f/free/national/coalition_outlines_bn_in_savings_Dgd1M5iIQGsTDrTIGlqEzJ">the AFR</a> that this is not the biggest issue:</p> <blockquote> <p>While Labor continued to suggest that there was something dodgy about the numbers because the Coalition hasn’t released the detailed Parliamentary Budget Office costings documents, it would really be better off moving on to argue the substance of the policy differences. There is nothing to suggest that it will find the sorts of holes in these numbers that Treasury and Finance found in the Coalition’s 2010 costings.</p> </blockquote> <p>The problem is I don’t know if the ALP leadership is up to the task. They haven’t even thought to point out that while Abbott is pledging to have the Productivity Commission to look into child care, his PPL scheme was given the thumbs down by the Productivity Commission. </p> <p>Instead we get dopey lines about “$75,000 payments for a billionaire to have a baby”.</p> <p>The Treasurer's debate didn’t really reveal anything. To be honest I can’t even remember muc of it now. </p> <p>Joe Hockey is apparently a glass-0half full kind of bloke, which is kind of odd given the past 5 and half years he’s been screaming that the glass is fricken empty. </p> <p>Chris Bowen was Chris Bowen.</p> <p>He had one good line which appropriated the old Keating line about the GST of “if you don’t understand it, don’t vote for it, because if you did, you’d never vote for it” (it has also been stolen by Tony Abbott to attack the carbon tax.  </p> <p>Bowen said, “If you don't know where the opposition will cut, then don't vote for them. Because if you did, you never would vote for them”</p> <p>What this all means I think is we need more Keating in this election campaign. </p> <p>***</p> <p>The Rooty Hill Leaders debate actual contained some new policy!</p> <p>Tony Abbott contradicted both Peter Dutton in yesterday’s Health debate and himself a week ago, when during the debate tonight he said that no Medicare Local would be closed. </p> <p>Six days ago he <a href="http://www.tonyabbott.com.au/LatestNews/InterviewTranscripts/tabid/85/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/9428/Joint-Press-Conference-St-Vincents-Hospital-Sydney.aspx">said this</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p>There will be a review and the object of the review will be to try to ensure that we maintain the actual health services that are being provided by Medicare Locals while minimising the bureaucracy associated with them. Now, can I say that absolutely no Medicare Local will close? I'm not going to say that…</p> </blockquote> <p>So that’s nice to know. </p> <p>I wonder if it falls under the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2010/s2901996.htm">category of</a> “sometimes, in the heat of discussion, you go a little bit further than you would if it was an absolutely calm, considered, prepared, scripted remark”</p> <p>Kevin Rudd meanwhile suddenly morphed into Bob Katter and decided we needed to be cautious about foreign investment. Bizarre. </p> <p>This is the standard of our campaign. Making it up on the run to get agreeing nods from people in a western Sydney RSL </p> <p>Both leaders also pledged to honour their election promises even if it meant pushing of a surplus till later.</p> <p>In the last debate Tony Abbott was accused of trying a “There’ you go again” moment when he said, “Does this guy ever shut up?” Tonight he decided to just steal the line completely and said at one point in a very over rehearsed attempt to appear unrehearsed “There he goes again.”</p> <p>Well I’m sorry Tony Abbott, you are no Ronald Reagan:</p> <p><iframe height="360" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/Wi9y5-Vo61w" frameborder="0" width="480" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe></p> <p>I was waiting for Abbott to say “Mr Rudd, tear down this carbon tax”. Alas it was not to be.</p> <p>Anyway, the debates were irrelevant. Watched only by tragics and rusted on voters.</p> <p>Meanwhile I wonder if now the Essendon issue is over whether Melbourne voters will realise there is an election happening?</p> <p>***</p> <p>I won’t be posting for the next couple days because I’m doing things at the Melbourne Writers Festival. Tomorrow night I”m on the Radio National “<a href="http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/politicsinthepub/">Politics in the Pub</a>”. It’s hosted by Jonathon Green and I’ll be on a panel with Corinne Grant and John Safran. The show starts at 8pm EST, so tune in to listen to me attempt to be not too lame. </p> Greg Jerichohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04956402439870441083noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8434369190746987531.post-29660029575578683852013-08-27T21:46:00.001+10:002013-08-27T21:46:23.979+10:00Election 2013: Day 23 (or, come sail your ships around me)<p>Today was about Kevin Rudd and the navy.</p> <p>He gave a speech at the Lowly Institute in which he <a href="http://www.kevinrudd.org.au/latest2_270813">stated</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p>The Government will establish the <em>Future Navy</em> Taskforce that will provide advice to the Government on implementing these recommendations and other recommendations of the Australian Defence Force Posture Review and 2013 Defence White Paper that offer operational advantages, enhance capability sustainment requirements and relieve future pressure on the current location of Fleet Base East in Sydney.</p> </blockquote> <blockquote> <p>The Taskforce will provide advice on the timing, proportions and implementation of moving some or all of Fleet Base East to Queensland and Perth and developing, upgrading or expanding Darwin and Broome.</p> </blockquote> <p>The <a href="http://www.kevinrudd.org.au/latest1_270813">media release</a> that followed said much the same thing:</p> <ul> <li>Moving some or all of Fleet Base East at Garden Island in Sydney Harbour to new bases in Brisbane, Townsville, Cairns and Perth.</li> </ul> <p>Now this quickly came to be represented in various parts of the media as only about moving all of Fleet Base East north to Brisbane – ie going beyond what was recommended. The “some” bit got left out a tad. </p> <p>Barry O’Farrell <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-27/harbour-showdown-between-rudd-and-o27farrell/4915752">went on the full offensive</a>, suggesting it would cost 4,000 jobs in Sydney.</p> <p>But what Rudd has proposed is pretty much in line with that recommended in the recent <a href="http://www.defence.gov.au/oscdf/adf-posture-review/">Defence Force Posture Review</a> Report:</p> <blockquote> <p>(14) Defence should <strong>commence planning now on long term options for establishing a supplementary east coast fleet base at Brisbane</strong> for the Future Submarine and large amphibious ships. This work will complement the development of options for embarking forces on amphibious ships at Brisbane in the shorter term, as set out in Recommendation 29.</p> </blockquote> <blockquote> <p>(29) Defence should develop options to <strong>allow large amphibious ships to embark Army units based in Brisbane</strong> and (as a lesser priority) Adelaide, in addition to Townsville and Darwin.</p> </blockquote> <p>So that sounds pretty straightforward. Rudd is just doing what was recommended. The problem however is that the <a href="http://www.defence.gov.au/whitepaper2013/">Defence White Paper</a> released in May noted:</p> <blockquote> <p>5.38 The Government has <strong>decided not to proceed </strong>at this time with long-term planning for establishing a supplementary east coast fleet base in Brisbane (which had been recommended by the Review). </p> <p>The <strong>significant preliminary cost estimate</strong> (in the order of $6 billion), challenges associated with <strong>land acquisition</strong>, <strong>environmental considerations</strong>, the need for <strong>extensive dredging</strong> and the wider dispersion to a third fleet base of Royal Australian Navy personnel and training, <strong>all suggest that establishing a fleet base in Brisbane would be challenging and require significant continued investment for it to remain sustainable.</strong></p> <p>5.39 Further detailed analysis and feasibility studies have confirmed that <strong>the fleet bases in Sydney and Perth will continue to meet the Royal Australian Navy’s needs for the foreseeable future</strong>. Should existing fleet base arrangements or operational requirements change in future, the Government may again consider the need to plan for an additional fleet base on the east coast.</p> </blockquote> <p>So it’s a bit of a change of tack. </p> <p>There’s nothing too wrong with that – sure it’s $6 billion, but we’re talking it being done by 2030, so it’s not like it is a budget killer. </p> <p>It’s so far off into the future that those shipyard workers currently living in Sydney would be able to catch the Very Fast Train to Brisbane by the time it is all done. </p> <p>The main problem with this policy is that yet again it shows that the ALP is not campaigning like a government. A government uses the White Paper and comes out with a number of great policy ideas that it can then announce during the election. And the policy then even if long-term has the ring of deep thought about it. </p> <p>Instead once again we have Kevin Rudd announcing something that highlights how he was not PM 3 months ago. <a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-RmKscQoKejI/UhyRf1PZY9I/AAAAAAAAJEs/iRGRJGWOTZg/s1600-h/Kevin%252520Rudd%252520and%252520Barry%252520O%252527Farrell%252520clash%252520on%252520Labor%252527s%252520plans%252520for%252520Garden%252520Island%252520-%252520YouTube%25255B3%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; float: right; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Kevin Rudd and Barry O'Farrell clash on Labor's plans for Garden Island - YouTube" border="0" alt="Kevin Rudd and Barry O'Farrell clash on Labor's plans for Garden Island - YouTube" align="right" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-NqyU2ArKcX8/UhyRg_E8CFI/AAAAAAAAJE0/jBdN4hlVWF4/Kevin%252520Rudd%252520and%252520Barry%252520O%252527Farrell%252520clash%252520on%252520Labor%252527s%252520plans%252520for%252520Garden%252520Island%252520-%252520YouTube_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="454" height="250" /></a></p> <p>It’s great to have long-term vision. But it must have the impetus of solid development behind it. Not a confused sense of “didn’t you rule this out in May?”</p> <p>The policy also led to dopey stories around the traps, such as the <a href="http://au.news.yahoo.com/sa/latest/a/-/newshome/18679230/defence-insiders-warn-navy-proposal-may-cost-sa-jobs/">headline item in the Adelaide Channel 7 news</a> which suggested “thousands” of lost jobs in Adelaide. This was all based on the belief that spending $6b for this would have to mean $6b being spent on defence elsewhere.</p> <p>Complete bollocks, but it got a run, nonetheless.</p> <p>Moreover given today's run in between Rudd and Barry O’Farrell, The Daily Tele tomorrow will no doubt run something idiotic on its front page.</p> <p>Ahh well.</p> <p>***</p> <p>Tony Abbott was spruiking his employment policy which was a re-tread of his similar policy in 2010. It <a href="http://www.tonyabbott.com.au/News/tabid/94/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/9455/The-Coalitions-plan-to-increase-employment-participation.aspx">involves</a> </p> <blockquote> <p>providing financial assistance of up to $6,000 for long term unemployed jobseekers if they move to a regional area to take up a job, or, $3,000 if they move to a metropolitan area.</p> </blockquote> <blockquote> <p>This relocation assistance will only be available to long-term unemployed jobseekers who have been on Newstart or Youth Allowance for more than 12 months. People relocating between capital cities or within capital cities will not be eligible for the payment.</p> </blockquote> <p>I doubt they’ll have to worry too much about the cost. I expect little of it will be spent. Sure there is unemployment in regions, but the most numbers of unemployment is within capital cities, and this won’t help those people.</p> <p>They are however eligible for a bonus of $2,500 if they get a job and stay in it for 12 months, and a further $4,000 if they keep it for a further 12 months.  </p> <p>Funding for long-term unemployed is all well and good, but I don’t think the main reason people are unemployed is they lack the incentive to get a job. </p> <p>Far better to spend money of training and assistance to get a job rather than assume they just need some financial encouragement to get of Newstart. </p> <p>***</p> <p>Kevin Rudd tonight on <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national-news/federal-election/rudd-says-abbott-lacks-8216temperament8217-to-deal-with-syria-crisis/story-fnho52ip-1226705259175">Today Tonight</a> suggested that Abbott lacks the “temperament:” to deal with international crisis. </p> <p>Hmmm.</p> <p>Rudd should let others do the head kicking. No one is going to start thinking this just because he says it. In fact it comes across as grasping at straws. A bit like Fraser in 1983 talking about the banks going bust if the ALP comes in.</p> <p>You don’t want to over-reach. And if you think these things, let others say it for you – or even better use an advert to show why you think it, and get the voters to think about it without even knowing why they are thinking about it. </p> <p>But in the end, Australia is not America. The ability of our leader to cope in foreign affairs issues won’t matter. </p> <p>***</p> <p>Today Tony Abbott announced a policy to provide retrospective payment for victims of terrorism of up to $75,000. The government brought in legislation to provide such support it was for future victims.</p> <p>Abbott has pledged to “in the first 100 days” to introduce legislation to back date the payment back to Sept 11 2001. </p> <p>Notionally trying to make the press conference seem non-political he still found time to suggest the ALP’s “behaviour towards the victims of terrorism was mean-spirited.”</p> <p>During the press conference he was asked about the responsibility of those who travel to areas of danger, given in 2005 there were travel warnings about going to Bali:</p> <blockquote> <p><b>QUESTION: </b>There were travel warnings there at the time not to travel there?</p> </blockquote> <p>Abbott responded:</p> <blockquote> <p><b>TONY ABBOTT: </b>And look, if you are walking down the street at 2am in Kings Cross in Sydney and you get king hit, maybe you shouldn't be there. Maybe it was an unwise place to be, an unwise thing to do. But if you do get king hit and you are badly damaged, you are helped by the New South Wales victims of crime legislation and I think that the Australian victims of overseas terrorism should get similar help.</p> </blockquote> <p>It was a dumb analogy to use, and strays into the blame the victim area. It also in a sense suggests a similarity between an area with a warning about terrorism and Kings Cross at 2am. </p> <p>Which I think even Abbott might realise is a bit of over-reach.  </p> <p>But I can understand the point he was trying to make – namely that even if there had been travel warnings that does not mean they should be denied payment. But he made it in a poor way</p> <p>I don’t think he deserves to be slapped too hard for it. The SMH and <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/aug/27/tony-abbott-king-hit-comments-offensive-and-irresponsible">Guardian Australia</a> have articles on it in which the father of Thomas Kelly who died after being king hit in Kings Cross says that Abbott’s comments were “throwaway” and “offensive”.</p> <p>He won’t get much blowback for it. Had Rudd said it, the Tele would be firing up the Photoshop of course. The same rules don’t apply for Abbott.</p> <p>But it would be nice if just once it was noted in a tabloid that Abbott’s campaign has hardly been gaffe free. </p> <p>***</p> <p>Oh look, forget the campaign. One great bit of news occurred today. </p> <p>Today the <a href="http://moadoph.gov.au/blog/julia-gillard-and-the-museum/">Museum of Australian Democracy announced</a> it had acquired the photo of Julia Gillard taken by 12 year old Sophie Deane. </p> <p>Sophie has Down Syndrome and took the photo at the media event for the signing of the NDIS agreement between the Commonwealth and Victoria. </p> <p><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-gqgkkY0IGHU/UhyRiP8lZKI/AAAAAAAAJE8/muvPWRyOzT0/s1600-h/Julia%252520Gillard%252520and%252520the%252520museum%252520%2525C2%2525B7%252520Museum%252520of%252520Australian%252520Democracy%252520at%252520Old%252520Parliament%252520House%25255B4%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Julia Gillard and the museum · Museum of Australian Democracy at Old Parliament House" border="0" alt="Julia Gillard and the museum · Museum of Australian Democracy at Old Parliament House" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-ad4S9Tz49Xw/UhyRjeXKwdI/AAAAAAAAJFE/eP1FmQ8YOSg/Julia%252520Gillard%252520and%252520the%252520museum%252520%2525C2%2525B7%252520Museum%252520of%252520Australian%252520Democracy%252520at%252520Old%252520Parliament%252520House_thumb%25255B2%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="622" height="423" /></a></p> <p>It was great shot, and an excellent move by the MoD. </p> Greg Jerichohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04956402439870441083noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8434369190746987531.post-42078955754523294852013-08-26T22:01:00.001+10:002013-08-26T22:20:09.247+10:00Election 2013: Day 22 (or, I guess the mandate is written between the lines)<p>Over the weekend the Liberal Party launched their campaign and Kevin Rudd denied Julia Gillard had a mandate to introduces the carbon tax.</p> <p>Let start with Kevin Rudd. </p> <p>So there he was on Insiders, and Barrie Cassidy asks him a pretty softball question. The, why should we re-elect you question.<a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-UYt6rqbzNUE/UhtDcEOjkhI/AAAAAAAAI0M/iPg_QGkL5Wk/s1600-h/Insiders%252520-%25252025-08-2013-%252520Prime%252520Minister%252520Kevin%252520Rudd%252520joins%252520Insiders%252520-%252520Insiders%252520-%252520ABC%25255B3%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 5px 0px 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; float: right; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Insiders - 25-08-2013- Prime Minister Kevin Rudd joins Insiders - Insiders - ABC" border="0" alt="Insiders - 25-08-2013- Prime Minister Kevin Rudd joins Insiders - Insiders - ABC" align="right" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-PQHukORBV3Y/UhtDc1MgnkI/AAAAAAAAI0U/JHbIpTTUbgY/Insiders%252520-%25252025-08-2013-%252520Prime%252520Minister%252520Kevin%252520Rudd%252520joins%252520Insiders%252520-%252520Insiders%252520-%252520ABC_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="334" height="257" /></a></p> <blockquote> <p>BARRIE CASSIDY: OK we'll turn our attention to the campaign now. Why do you say you deserve to be re-elected?</p> </blockquote> <p>Whew. Time to flick the switch to auto pilot and bring out those great lines that shows just how great life under Labor will be for the next three years:</p> <blockquote> <p>KEVIN RUDD: I'm the first one to admit at having returned to the prime ministership, in the past, the Government has got a number of things wrong. All governments do. I seek, however, to admit it. For example, I don't think our actions on the carbon tax were right. That's why I changed it and moved towards a floating price ...</p> </blockquote> <p>Or you could just sh*t on your predecessor. </p> <p>So Rudd is asked “Why do you say you deserve to be re-elected” and his first response is to say “the Government has got a number of things wrong”.  </p> <p>Really? That’s your opening gambit?</p> <p>Let’s at this point stop wondering why the ALP is paying about $10 to win the election. Even Cassidy was surprised:</p> <blockquote> <p>BARRIE CASSIDY: What was wrong with that?</p> </blockquote> <blockquote> <p>KEVIN RUDD: Well, to begin with we didn't have a mandate for it. And furthermore a floating price is the best response to changing international markets. So I have changed that.</p> </blockquote> <p>Well gee, Kev. Top work. Well done agreeing to what Tony Abbott has been saying every days for the past 3 years. </p> <p>Rudd once was a very good politician – an excellent one in fact. He spent all of 2007 toying with John Howard. Admittedly Howard’s best years were behind him, but that still took some doing. Best of all though was that he wasn’t political. He didn’t come across like a politician and thus he appeals to those who had had enough of the political class and all of its carefully focus-group prepared lines. </p> <p>To watch Rudd now is dispiriting. He lacks any energy, or an ability to provide any reason for listening to him. He sounds like a politician – a boring one. At times he can be Warren Truss boring. </p> <p>This was his response on <a href="http://www.kevinrudd.org.au/latest3_260813">ABC Radio this morning</a> when asked about the LNP’s black hole of funding, and that while the Government's $70b figure is exaggerated Saul Eslake had found a $30b hole:</p> <blockquote> <p><strong>HOST:</strong> Saul Eslake has found $30 billion - that’s an independent assessment.</p> </blockquote> <blockquote> <p><strong>PM:</strong> Well, Mr Eslake’s figure looks at one element of it, which is, he says that that $30 billion relates to a number concerning certain categories, but I don’t wish to enter into a debate about which element is covered and which is not covered, what I’m saying is that Mr Abbott and – sorry, Mr Hockey’s and Mr Robb’s figures are $70 billion, and he could happily for your benefit, for all your listeners benefit, simply put out under the Charter of Budget Honesty, his full reconciliation table and his budget bottom line of what he’s going to cut, and what he’s going to spend. He refuses to do that.</p> </blockquote> <p>It sounded as riveting as it reads.</p> <p>Cripes. A barrel is rarely so full of fish to shoot. </p> <p>How about laughing at the scenario? Here we have a situation where Saul Eslake is saying the Libs aren’t short $70b, but $30b. </p> <p>Thirty Billion Dollars!</p> <p>Who cares about the $70b line? Why not instead laugh and say “Well gee, 2 years ago it was $70b. It’s good they’ve done some work, now they’re only $30b short. Thirty billion dollars is more than the annual defence budget, it’s more than we spend each year on education, it’s almost the exact amount spent each year on family benefits. So yeah, they’re doing great, all Tony Abbott has to do is not spend anything on education and he’ll be set!”</p> <p>Instead: “Mr Eslake’s figure looks at one element of it, which is, he says that that $30 billion relates to a number concerning certain categories, but I don’t wish to enter into a debate about which element is covered and which is not covered…”</p> <p>It’s rare you see a long hop played so meekly back to the bowler.  </p> <p>***</p> <p><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-9siwoi7FeKc/UhtDd5JcUaI/AAAAAAAAI0c/K4nUXGZ-ZsM/s1600-h/Election%2525202013-%252520Labor%252520and%252520Kevin%252520Rudd%252520show%252520slight%252520gains%252520in%252520poll%252520-%252520politics%252520live%252520blog%252520-%252520as%252520it%252520happened%252520-%252520World%252520news%252520-%252520theguardian.com%25255B3%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px 5px 5px 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; float: left; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Election 2013- Labor and Kevin Rudd show slight gains in poll - politics live blog - as it happened - World news - theguardian.com" border="0" alt="Election 2013- Labor and Kevin Rudd show slight gains in poll - politics live blog - as it happened - World news - theguardian.com" align="left" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-Yx6N1heb4rM/UhtDe_ZKeiI/AAAAAAAAI0k/DtosH4WuF1I/Election%2525202013-%252520Labor%252520and%252520Kevin%252520Rudd%252520show%252520slight%252520gains%252520in%252520poll%252520-%252520politics%252520live%252520blog%252520-%252520as%252520it%252520happened%252520-%252520World%252520news%252520-%252520theguardian.com_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="430" height="249" /></a>In his <a href="http://www.tonyabbott.com.au/LatestNews/Speeches/tabid/88/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/9444/Address-to-the-2013-Federal-Coalition-Campaign-Launch.aspx">speech on Sunday</a> Mr Abbott announced one policy that has some worth – the interest free loans for apprentices (I’ll be covering this in my Drum piece on Wednesday). </p> <p>He also gave a sop to self-funded retirees, no doubt to overcome their annoyance at finding out that Abbott expects them to pick up part of the tab of his Paid Parental Leave scheme. </p> <p>There were a few interesting lines though.</p> <p>First:</p> <blockquote> <p>By the end of a Coalition government’s first term, the budget will be on-track to a believable surplus.</p> </blockquote> <p> So much for the budget emergency. </p> <p>If all that is wrong with the budget is the ALP’s waste, then cutting the waste should be damn easy to do. That Abbott is now putting off a return to surplus until at least 4 years time shows that there is not much easy fruit to pick. He might talk of $100,000 studies for ergonomic chairs, but if they really had something bigger they’d be able to name it. </p> <p>Problem is Abbott isn’t actually trying to cut the budget during this election. He might be cutting some programs of the ALP, but he’s spending the savings. And if Saul Eslake is to be believed, he’s doing a bit more than that as well. </p> <p>But just because he’s not all that boastful about getting  back to a surplus, don’t think that doesn’t mean he won’t cut. The budget emergency is still in his head, the problem for us is he won’t say how he is going to fix it until after the election.  </p> <p>This was shown in the second interesting thing from the speech:</p> <blockquote> <p>“… and the true state of Labor’s books will be revealed.”</p> </blockquote> <p>Actually the true state of the books was revealed in the PEFO. Abbott is letting you know that Treasury figures will quickly be found to have some errors of assumptions etc and lo and behold there’ll be a black hole that requires urgent cuts. </p> <p>He, like Campbell Newman, will do this through an audit. We know he’ll find a need for cuts because no one ever holds an audit just to discover that the Treasury figures were right all along. </p> <p>It’s a good thing Abbott wants some natural attrition of the public service, because the way morale at Treasury will be with Hockey as its Minister, I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s more than a few smart economists looking to jump into the private sector. </p> <p>My favourite response today has been from Liberal Party supporters who see nothing wrong with this approach. They, of course, love the fact that Abbott is going to cut government spending, but they see nothing wrong with not telling us now what he is going to cut. </p> <p>I also like how the many tabloid newspapers largely ignored this little snippet. I cannot wait for all the hacks to take to Twitter after the election whenever a semi-critical article on Tony Abbott is run. Look! We’re holding him to account! We’re not biased!!</p> <p>(Excuse me while I bolt that door and observe the horses running away) </p> <p>The third interesting line was this:</p> <blockquote> <p>Within a decade, the budget surplus will be 1 per cent of GDP, defence spending will be 2 per cent of GDP, the private health insurance rebate will be fully restored, and each year, government will be a smaller percentage of our economy.</p> </blockquote> <p>Yes boys and girls, we’ll have a surplus while also having increased defence spending, and less tax revenue.</p> <p>Defence spending at the moment is at 1.53% of GDP. To get it to 2% in ten years would, <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/election-2013/government-spending-to-be-slashed/story-fn9qr68y-1226703778840">The Australian reports</a>, require it to grow “at an annual rate of 5.3 per cent plus inflation for 10 years, or more than double the current rate.”</p> <p>Do the maths. </p> <p>More defence spending plus less revenue does not equal a surplus unless a whole lot of something else in the budget is cut. And remember there’s a lot of new spending that will occur in that time for things like the full NDIS and proposed education reforms. </p> <p>There’s a hell of a lot of holes there for a bloke talking about a “trust deficit”. </p> <p>***</p> <p>Today Kevin Rudd announced more funding for the setup of the “<a href="http://www.kevinrudd.org.au/latest1_260813">High Speed Rail Authority</a>”. The $52m will go towards:</p> <ul> <li>Finalise the track alignment and station locations in consultation with the governments of Victoria, New South Wales, Queensland and the ACT.</li> </ul> <p>Excellent. Those three states always work well together.</p> <ul> <li>Work with <em>Infrastructure Australia</em> to develop a detailed business case.</li> </ul> <p>Good luck with that. </p> <ul> <li>Conduct market testing to refine capital cost estimates, construction timetables and to identify opportunities for private sector involvement.</li> </ul> <p>OK, look I am being very cynical. And it’s hard not to be when you’re talking getting the HSR done by 2035. </p> <p>Rudd did have one nice line though when he stated that the cost of building this by 2035 would actually be less than the amount spent under Abbott’s Paid Parental Leave in the same period of time.</p> <p>I like High Speed Rail. I like the idea of it. I’m just yet to be convinced there is a business case for it. And I think while voters do like big infrastructure projects – like the NBN – they’re less enamoured with ones they won’t be able to use for 20 years. </p> <p>***</p> <p>Tony Abbott late this afternoon went to the Gold Coast and announced he would:</p> <blockquote> <p>Immediately suspend and review the flawed Management Plans for Marine Protected Areas imposed without fair or adequate consultation.</p> </blockquote> <p>Now to suggest there was not fair or adequate consultation done by the Government before it imposed the latest Marine Protect Areas is complete horsesh*t consumed by a bull and excreted onto a pile of bollocks.  </p> <p><a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/marinereserves/consultation-overview.html">Consultation</a> for the development of the new marine reserves went from May 2011 to February 2012. </p> <p>There were 245 meetings attended by 1,953 people.</p> <p>There were 566,377 submissions. “The highest number of submissions (487,435) was received in response to the release of the Commonwealth marine reserve proposal for the Coral Sea Region”.</p> <p>But most of those submissions were campaign ones – pro-forma stuff that gets tossed on the pile by the public servants. </p> <p>Where I used to work we’d occasionally get a stack of “postcard campaigns” They were noted, and basically ignored. You really think mass sending a photocopy of a letter is going convince anyone?</p> <p>(If you do, let me put you right – it doesn't, and you’re wasting you time. Write a real letter and it will get read and answered)  </p> <p>So that left a still very sizeable 1,496 submissions that would have actually been read and considered. </p> <p>Of those real submission 41% came from the general community, 27% were from the conservation sector, 10% from commercial fishing and 8% from recreational fishers.</p> <p>And here is what the Government in response came up with</p> <blockquote> <p>“Recreational fishing will be allowed in all zones in the marine reserves except in highly protected Marine National Park (IUCN II) zones which are coloured green on the available regional maps. Recreational fishing is permitted in Multiple Use (IUCN VI) zones, Special Purpose (IUCN VI) zones, Habitat Protection (IUCN IV) zones and Recreational Use (IUCN IV) zones. These zones are used extensively over the continental shelf and shelf edge where most recreational fishing occurs.</p> </blockquote> <blockquote> <p>“The marine reserves are in Commonwealth waters, which start 3 nautical miles (5.5 km) from shore. They do not include beaches, bays, estuaries or coastal waters.”</p> </blockquote> <p>(The white bits are where you can’t fish)”</p> <p><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-sca2YuOkouE/UhtDgLQ0R-I/AAAAAAAAI0s/9HWAnelM594/s1600-h/map-national-recfishing.jpg%252520%2525281200%2525C3%252597723%252529%25255B3%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="map-national-recfishing.jpg (1200×723)" border="0" alt="map-national-recfishing.jpg (1200×723)" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-077MaK_VISs/UhtDhCCvl3I/AAAAAAAAI00/GHsQSMmzfEA/map-national-recfishing.jpg%252520%2525281200%2525C3%252597723%252529_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="656" height="395" /></a></p> <p>Then came the Management Plans for Marine Protected Areas. The consultation for them occurred in <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/marinereserves/consultation/index.html">this manner</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p>Under the <em>Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999</em> (EPBC Act), six draft management plans were released for public comment - the South-east Network draft plan in July 2012, followed by draft plans for the South-west, North-west, North and Temperate East Networks and the Coral Sea Reserve in January 2013.</p> </blockquote> <p>How many submissions? Oh <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/marinereserves/background.html#plan">about 65,000</a>.</p> <p>These plans go for 10 years and set out how the reserves are to be managed. The management plan for the South-east Network came into effect on 1 July 2013 with the remaining five management plans coming into effect on 1 July 2014.</p> <p>Tony Abbott today said that: </p> <blockquote> <p>“There is almost none of us, almost none of us who hasn't dangled a line off a wharf, dangled a line off a tinnie, got an old rod out of the shed and cast out on a beach.”</p> </blockquote> <p>He should have added “and none of that will change under the current Marine Parks Plane and so I won’t be pandering to a bunch of Liberal and National Party rusted on voters who drive around with “I Fish and I Vote” bumper stickers, by lying to them and say that they won’t be able to go fishing with their grandson anymore.”</p> <p>But alas he didn’t. </p> <p>Back in June Tony Burke in response to a question in Parliament <a href="http://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;query=Id%3A%22chamber%2Fhansardr%2Fe40cc95f-8da2-4485-8b5c-f83df5fee682%2F0032%22">noted a protest in Torquay</a>. He said of the protest:</p> <blockquote> <p>…. if you wanted to go from that rally to an area where you are not allowed to fish, you would have to go out, turn left, go across the Bass Strait and, after 460 kilometres, you would get to the first place where you could not fish, a place where the no-fishing zone was put in place in 2007 when the member for Wentworth was the minister for the environment.</p> <p>The nearest restriction on recreational fishing was put in place by the Howard government when they were in charge.”</p> </blockquote> <p>Rather oddly, Tony Abbott didn’t mention that today. </p> <p>***</p> <p>On the front page of today’s <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/election-2013/change-needs-a-conservative-noel-pearson/story-fn9qr68y-1226703814535">Australian there was a story</a> about Noel Pearson saying constitutional change needed a conservative. He said this because "I've always been of the view that on this issue of (a) constitutional recognition referendum, Nixon’s got to go to China," Mr Pearson told The Australian.”</p> <p>The Nixon went to China line is easily the dimmest analogy trotted out by political figures around the world. It is stupid when said in any country, but more than any other it is so when said by someone in Australia. </p> <p>Because in Australia the conservatives didn’t go to China, Gough Whitlam did. And he went before Nixon. </p> <p>The other reason the line is crap is because it gives conservatives a free pass and suggests they are the only ones capable of bringing the country together on contentious issues. It ignores that the main reason this is the case is because on most contentious issues the conservative side goes batsh*t insane when they are put forward by a progressive party. </p> <p>If conservatives can’t be the ones bringing in some “reform” then they want to take the bat and ball and not just go home, but destroy the grandstand on the way out of the ground. </p> <p>Take the price on carbon. So happy to campaign on it in 2007. But Rudd gets to bring it in? Why hell it’ll do nothing less than destroy the nation! </p> <p>Pearson said, “The most conservative end of Australia, rural and regional Australia, needs to trust the change and only a highly conservative leader can carry a referendum.”</p> <p>There is no reason that could not happen if it were introduced by the ALP. All it would need is the leader of the Liberal and National Parties to show leadership and not sulk in their usual way and let it be known that while they kind of support it, they don’t really care all that much and well maybe it would be better to wait for “evolutionary change” (ie change that I the conservative can take credit for).</p> <p>Howard was able to bring in gun laws with full and complete support from the ALP and Kim Beazley. I have no doubt at all that were it Beazley who was PM at the time, the support from the LNP would have been decidedly muted. </p> <p>And we would have been told Nixon’s got to go to China.</p> <p>Grow up, I say. </p> Greg Jerichohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04956402439870441083noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8434369190746987531.post-69925923198504617172013-08-26T14:19:00.001+10:002013-08-26T15:31:51.957+10:00Wages Breakout (or lack thereof) Graphs<p>My <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2013/aug/26/wages-blowout-in-coalition-imagination">Guardian Post</a> today is on the wages breakout claims by Eric Abetz. </p> <p>I’m putting some graphs here because they couldn’t all fit in the post. </p> <p><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-_yBrReSSyt8/UhrXQBLGyII/AAAAAAAAIxI/ituy4CN9Vxo/s1600-h/image%25255B3%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-HtMpXbgzPqs/UhrXQ_KEo7I/AAAAAAAAIxQ/yDUJpBkGqnw/image_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="642" height="360" /></a></p> <p><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-mlmCD1ewCfk/UhrXRocpTFI/AAAAAAAAIxY/f4xO29AlW-A/s1600-h/image%25255B8%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-1dyif3lTU44/UhrXSMHfKsI/AAAAAAAAIxg/jsZWT_SsDNQ/image_thumb%25255B4%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="642" height="347" /></a></p> <p><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-EXlZZg9t9Rg/UhrXS1-VFuI/AAAAAAAAIxo/aJyhj5DL8DY/s1600-h/image%25255B13%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-iCwN8Y0w3ac/UhrXTV0OVNI/AAAAAAAAIxw/NO1dKJKS16o/image_thumb%25255B7%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="641" height="376" /></a></p> <p><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-DywKjq8LTNM/UhrXTw0IRCI/AAAAAAAAIx4/bgWYANByPjA/s1600-h/image%25255B22%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-4JmgwqNpCjA/UhrXUvtf-vI/AAAAAAAAIyA/FkBKqDeQf0k/image_thumb%25255B12%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="643" height="379" /></a></p> <p><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-3Jn88TewKpI/UhrXVHr3hpI/AAAAAAAAIyI/Io8iHqEoijY/s1600-h/image%25255B26%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-DGhLAD-d610/UhrXV_e3m4I/AAAAAAAAIyQ/17MfYQWBpVs/image_thumb%25255B14%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="652" height="366" /></a></p> <p><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-68FcGznl8kI/UhrXWULVtJI/AAAAAAAAIyY/7kPY6JM-xCY/s1600-h/image%25255B31%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-e6yui_E8CzI/UhrXW6XiRLI/AAAAAAAAIyg/_6lYEa_VUEQ/image_thumb%25255B17%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="650" height="370" /></a></p> <p><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-PdXv8aQWGR8/UhrXXiXI7RI/AAAAAAAAIyo/KAsE2wN638k/s1600-h/image%25255B18%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-JlypxvTkft8/UhrXYZzshUI/AAAAAAAAIyw/NwxZrrWwyuc/image_thumb%25255B10%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="645" height="394" /></a></p> <p><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-1zo6gzG7-rY/UhroQ4VolBI/AAAAAAAAIz0/m_g_t2LSsvY/s1600-h/image%25255B50%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-iN3S7fzbNQk/UhroRo9r2fI/AAAAAAAAIz8/lI_PhjkjZhw/image_thumb%25255B28%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="639" height="382" /></a></p> <p><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-RiDJ9PtKlkU/UhrZoggRacI/AAAAAAAAIzM/kLUWz_YzYXM/s1600-h/image%25255B41%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-xQJ5r74Pi1w/UhrZpX40hdI/AAAAAAAAIzU/hDUavhQKKXo/image_thumb%25255B23%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="637" height="381" /></a></p> <p><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-OFcz8Iif1rI/UhrZqHYZoXI/AAAAAAAAIzc/GtGmhHAdZSs/s1600-h/image%25255B46%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-IO4OvIUte-I/UhrZqviouGI/AAAAAAAAIzk/XJ1mFitLk8A/image_thumb%25255B26%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="636" height="386" /></a></p> Greg Jerichohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04956402439870441083noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8434369190746987531.post-13101682983750259992013-08-24T08:36:00.001+10:002013-08-24T15:33:30.112+10:00Election 2013: Day 19 (or, the litmus test)<p>A very quick blog post today because last night I was moderating the <a href="http://oursay.org/electorate-of-fraser">Our Say Forum</a> for candidate in the seat of Fraser and so didn’t have time to write a post yesterday, and today is Saturday so I pretty much tune out.</p> <p>On Wednesday my <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-21/jericho-rudds-seven-pillars/4900260">Drum</a> article had a go at Rudd for coming up with Seven Pillars that were more thought bubble than policy. Interestingly the past couple of days he has been nicely adding some weight baring strength to a couple of the pillars.</p> <p>On the pillar of red-tape and making life easier for small business he has changed the rules for small business paying their PPL, increased the number of businesses able to access the “Small Business Superannuation Clearing House”, and most strikingly, yesterday he changed <a href="http://www.kevinrudd.org.au/latest3_230813">the rules for businesses</a> on administering the GST. </p> <p>The cost of this policy is a bit of an issue. David Bradbury saying: “The cost is small but unquantifiable across the forward estimates”, which is a bit interesting, shall we say. If that is the case it certainly does make you wonder why it has taken 12 years of the GST before someone decided to do it.</p> <p>The Libs will no doubt adopt the policy ASAP. </p> <p>So Rudd has being doing some good policy work. It’s stuff I think he should have done before the election, and it’s why I always thought he should go late. Going to the election when he did denied him a chance to do government type things that gave people the impression he was back in charge, hand on the tiller.  </p> <p>Instead for most people looking back it feels like he became PM then called an election. Honestly, think to yourself. Can you remember anything he did between becoming PM and the the election?</p> <p>He dumped the carbon tax, but not really. The legislation hasn’t gone through so it was actually an election promise, not a government decision.</p> <p>All that was done was the school funding deals. But he went to the polls without getting QLD on board, so again there is the sense he was just getting enough states on board (ie Victoria) to mean Abbott had little space to run on it.</p> <p>There wasn’t much of being a nice boring stable government in that time. </p> <p>Ah well.</p> <p>***</p> <p>Yesterday Tony Abbott announced his latest version of his asylum seeker policy. The good thing about each new incarnation is they gets just that slightly bit more insane.</p> <p>Yesterdays one involved announcing he would be increasing the AFP presence in Indonesia (not discussed with Indonesia) and to pay money to people in Indonesia to inform on people smugglers and a plan to buy boats from fishermen that were going to be sold to people smugglers.</p> <p>I wrote about this aspect of the policy in <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2013/aug/23/abbott-boat-buy-scheme-economics">The Guardian yesterday</a>. Needless to say it is bat-f*cking crazy.</p> <p>But the good thing is it is a litmus test. <a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-pBN6Dpz0JBI/Uhfj3c2kb3I/AAAAAAAAIvw/ntKYUXrlVAw/s1600-h/Tiser%2525204%25255B3%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; margin: 0px 0px 5px 5px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; float: right; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Tiser 4" border="0" alt="Tiser 4" align="right" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-wWD-ZbOTG9o/Uhfj4VXqwbI/AAAAAAAAIv4/5j4eE19D1_U/Tiser%2525204_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="209" height="293" /></a></p> <p>People who still have their brains intact, heard this policy and laughed out loud. Those who didn’t can no longer to claim and sense of impartiality.</p> <p>So what did the editor of The Daily Telegraph do? Well he stuck it on Page 8 with a positive headline. The editor of The Advertiser was dumb enough to put it on page one with a glowing headline.</p> <p>At this point you have to wonder if they administer the Kool-Aid to such people in daily or weekly doses. </p> <p>But look, if you are feeling bad about things, don’t worry, it could have been worse: you could have been one of the three people who contributed to this article:</p> <p><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/--uHbA5b2070/Uhfj5jhyeXI/AAAAAAAAIwA/wVudMnWcR_g/s1600-h/The%252520Dumbest%252520Piece%252520of%252520Journalism%252520in%252520Australia%25255B3%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="The Dumbest Piece of Journalism in Australia" border="0" alt="The Dumbest Piece of Journalism in Australia" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-u6dl1uWrFRA/Uhfj7I2kp8I/AAAAAAAAIwI/MV-nmNDeG44/The%252520Dumbest%252520Piece%252520of%252520Journalism%252520in%252520Australia_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="500" height="502" /></a></p> <p>***</p> <p>Actually it could be worse. You could have written this:</p> <p><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-QBnI9VNuiTo/UhgLKH9ToEI/AAAAAAAAIwY/X1hpXH2labg/s1600-h/Tough%252520guy%252520Tony%252520Abbott%252527s%252520secret%252520is%252520out%252520-%252520thetelegraph.com.au%25255B3%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Tough guy Tony Abbott's secret is out - thetelegraph.com.au" border="0" alt="Tough guy Tony Abbott's secret is out - thetelegraph.com.au" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-1SVU6tMwEvU/UhgLK8fwnlI/AAAAAAAAIwg/oWNICyH-_Qs/Tough%252520guy%252520Tony%252520Abbott%252527s%252520secret%252520is%252520out%252520-%252520thetelegraph.com.au_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="534" height="194" /></a></p> <p>It contains such paragraphs as:</p> <blockquote> <p>“In the upper floor of the shelter he wanders through the crowd like it's his family barbecue, greeting everyone by name, touching shoulders and kissing cheeks.</p> </blockquote> <blockquote> <p>“In a salmon jacket and killer black boots, Margie is not just a mere cosy accompaniment, but is equally engaged, both with punters and her man. She squeezes his hand; she cutely taps him on the bum. She cannot hide her affection for him.”</p> </blockquote> <p>and it ends:</p> <blockquote> <p>“Clearly, Tony Abbott is not here to be served, but to serve.”</p> </blockquote> <p>But the best line of all is this:</p> <blockquote> <p>His secret is out. When the cameras are long stashed in their bags, with no boom microphones floating above his receding hairline, and not a pesky journalist in sight, Tony Abbott, it appears, likes to indulge in a little humanity.</p> </blockquote> <p>Indeed Andrew Carswell, there wasn’t one journalist in sight.  </p> <p>***</p> <p>At a certain point you move beyond parody and into insanity.</p> <p><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-qQpRIDyQdl4/UhgYn2Xza-I/AAAAAAAAIww/nDtjpacvLbQ/s1600-h/Coalition%252520to%252520police%252520wage%252520claims%252520-%252520The%252520Australian%25255B3%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Coalition to police wage claims - The Australian" border="0" alt="Coalition to police wage claims - The Australian" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-mbqD8vyatV8/UhgYon9XJpI/AAAAAAAAIw4/OpntLPExxHM/Coalition%252520to%252520police%252520wage%252520claims%252520-%252520The%252520Australian_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="552" height="205" /></a></p> <p>Seriously, Tony Abbott says this:</p> <blockquote> <p>“I don't want to be too sanctimonious about this given the pressure she was under, but it is demeaning to our polity and dispiriting to our people when there is no assumption of good faith, no benefit of the doubt given. The Parliament always takes its cue from the prime minister.''</p> </blockquote> <p>Actually Abbott, your party and its supporters also take its cue from you.</p> <p>Here was two of his party <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/angry-mobs-ready-to-face-off-as-mps-take-leave-of-trouble-20110821-1j4il.html">in 2011</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p>after question time, Julia Gillard walked the corridors back to her office rather than cut across a courtyard as she usually does.</p> </blockquote> <blockquote> <p>As she strolled past opposition MPs' offices, Christopher Pyne and Joe Hockey, like two schoolyard ne'er-do-wells, trailed about 10 paces behind, heckling. Hockey was bellowing the Engelbert Humperdinck lyrics: "Please release me, let me go, 'cause I don't love you any more …" Pyne, doing his best to affect a menacing gravitas, was taunting repeatedly: "You're drowning Julia, not waving, you're drowning.''</p> </blockquote> <p>Tony Abbott now a couple week’s away form being PM wants everyone to pretend the past 3 years have not been the grubbiest sh*tfest from Abbott and his cohorts. </p> <p>But hey, here’s some more examples of Julia Gillard demining our polity and dispiriting our people</p> <p><iframe height="360" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/tsECK-gRCGc" frameborder="0" width="640" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe></p> <p>What a pathetic “exclusive” from Mark Baker. </p> Greg Jerichohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04956402439870441083noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8434369190746987531.post-64855567858223985412013-08-22T22:25:00.001+10:002013-08-22T23:13:56.064+10:00Election 2013: Day 18 (or, The moment I wake up, Before I put on my makeup…)<p>Today, the day after the second debate, the election campaign was a bit muted. </p> <p>Maybe it was because there was a story that the make-up artist for the debate last night thought Rudd was rude (or at least not as polite as Abbott). Perhaps it is because after the AFL/Essendon story broke yesterday both sides know that no one in an AFL state is listening. </p> <p>But there was some policy.</p> <p>The ALP’s big move was to cut red tape. This is one of Kevin Rudd’s pillars of the economy, and so it was good to see him provide a bit of detail.</p> <p>The main detail was it adopting the LNP policy with relation to the Paid Parental Leave being administered by Centrelink rather <a href="http://www.kevinrudd.org.au/latest4_220813">than small businesses</a> (those with fewer than 20 employees) . </p> <p>It’s a good move, and the LNP can rightly say the ALP is playing catch up. Given the cost is just $10.3m it’s actually quite surprising it wasn’t done this way from the start. </p> <p>Kevin Rudd also announced measures to expand the free “Small Business Superannuation Clearing House” from businesses with less than 20 employees to less than 100. </p> <p>The Clearing House is a free service that enables small businesses to pay their employees' superannuation to a single location in just one electronic transaction.</p> <p>Again a good move, and again we’re talking just $4.8 m over four years.</p> <p>So further evidence that the parties are not viewing this election as a spendathon.</p> <p>It certainly wasn’t the type of policy that is going to stop anyone in the street. That doesn’t make it bad policy, it just means the LAP is doing a bit more a “look at all of the small things we have done” rather than going for the big wow of a policy.</p> <p>***</p> <p>The Liberal Party did a very odd thing, they provided us with a sighting of Peter Dutton. </p> <p>It was to release their health policy. This was going to be a “<a href="http://www.afr.com/p/national/cracker_coalition_health_policy_zBcEvJ279FPGTtg0dNgO9N">cracker</a>” of a policy Peter Dutton told Laura Tingle back in June. </p> <p>And yet right up front Abbott was almost trying to play it down:</p> <blockquote> <p>You'll notice when you look at our policy that it is a policy for significant incremental change. It's not a policy for shaking up a system which in broad terms works well. I don't say our health system is perfect. No system is perfect. Our health system is always a work in progress but by the standards of other countries, Australia does have an outstandingly good health system.</p> </blockquote> <p>“significant incremental change”? Bit like say that you’re going to run a race slowly fast. </p> <p>He then tried as bit of stand up:</p> <blockquote> <p>I don't want to be too Party political just in this stage of the discussion but the current Government infamously has cut Medicare, it has cut hospital funding, it has tampered with the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme approval process, it has managed to alienate many of the professional groups in the system.</p> </blockquote> <p>Good thing you don’t want to get too party political during an election campaign, you just want to say the ALP destroyed pretty much everything in the health system. </p> <p> The policy announced was indeed :”incremental”. It was the type of policy you introduce when you don’t want to have to rely on Peter Dutton saying much. And indeed once he finished his spiel he wasn’t required to answer one question. </p> <p>The big things were changes to the PBS way of doing things. But mostly this is about “resorting the independence”.</p> <p>Also they <a href="http://www.tonyabbott.com.au/News/tabid/94/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/9427/The-Coalitions-policy-to-support-Australias-health-system.aspx">announced</a>:</p> <ul> <li>Bring forward the proposed roll-out of the National Bowel Cancer Screening Programme; </li> <li>Develop a new National Diabetes Strategy as well as provide $35 million to find a cure for Type One Diabetes;</li> </ul> <p>Although the Diabetes strategy had already been released. </p> <p>Then came the spending:</p> <ul> <li>Strengthen primary care by providing $52.5 million to expand existing general practices for teaching and supervision and invest $119 million to double the practice incentive payment for teaching in general practice; </li> <li>Provide 500 additional nursing and allied health scholarships for students and health professionals in areas of need as well as $40 million for 400 medical internships; </li> </ul> <p>So how are they paying for it?</p> <p>Well probably with this next bit:</p> <ul> <li>Review the Medicare Locals structure to ensure that funding is being spent to support frontline services.</li> </ul> <p>Uhuh. </p> <p>During his <a href="http://www.tonyabbott.com.au/News/tabid/94/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/9428/Joint-Press-Conference-St-Vincents-Hospital-Sydney.aspx">press conference</a> Abbott said of Medicare Locals:</p> <blockquote> <p>Now, can I say that absolutely no Medicare Local will close? I'm not going to say that, but I am giving an absolute commitment here today that the overall levels of health funding will be maintained. Overall levels of health funding will be maintained. We just want to ensure that we get the best possible bang for the buck that we want to maximise health services while minimising health bureaucracy.</p> </blockquote> <p>Which is pretty clear that it means Medicare locals will be cut and they’ll point to the health scholarships and anything else slowly floating by as “overall health funding”. </p> <p>No one ever calls for a review to do nothing. </p> <p>And also you do a review to get the outcome you want.</p> <p>Fact checkers might be right to say that the ALP’s claim that the Libs will cut Medicare locals is false because they have not said they will cut them. But cripes, journalism is about reading between the lines and seeing what is being said that they don’t want anyone to hear. </p> <p>They’ve got to cut them because they need the money. </p> <p>The other thing is the private health insurance rebate. They want to restore it. I guess because they think the above middle class deserve some more welfare – you know budget emergencies are always fixed by giving money to those who don’t need it…</p> <p>To be hones though, Abbott seems more interested in suggesting he’ll restore the Medicare rebate to the way it was rather than actually doing it. The best he can give is:</p> <blockquote> <p><strong>QUESTION: </strong>Will to be your intention to restore it within a first term of an Abbott government?</p> </blockquote> <blockquote> <p><strong>TONY ABBOTT: </strong>I'm not making a commitment to do so at this time. I simply want to restore it as quickly as we can.</p> </blockquote> <p>The main reason he can’t do it is that he is running out with money on the savings side of the ledger. Saul Eslake, who in my view is one of the best economists going around, <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/coalition-has-30b-gap-in-promises-leading-economist-saul-eslake-20130822-2sdil.html">estimates they’re currently</a> $30 billion short. </p> <p>Thirty billion. </p> <p>Thus far Abbott and Hockey have been having it easy with the handouts, but they continue the delusion that announcing policy is just announcing how much you are going to spend. </p> <p>Their strategy appears to be to release the bad news after the advertising blackout occurs in the last week. </p> <p>If that is what happens every media organisation that once to retain any sense of worth should slaughter them for it. </p> <p>***</p> <p>On the front of The Oz today Eric Abetz revealed the Libs new IR policy, It is utterly insipid, but I’ll be writing about that for my next Guardian post, so I’ll leave it till then (yes, that’s called a tease)</p> <p>***</p> <p>And yet tonight despite the LNP releasing its health policy, the ABC’s 7:30 Report did not cover it, nor the red tape stuff from the ALP. Yes they had a debate on climate change policy, but nothing on today’s news.</p> <p>Instead we were treated to a 5 minutes dullsville piece of how life is like on the press but following after Kevin Rudd. </p> <p>Apparently next week we’ll get the lot following Abbot. </p> <p>BREAKNG: The hours are long, they’re not told where they’re going.</p> <p>End of story.  </p> Greg Jerichohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04956402439870441083noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8434369190746987531.post-88503927267587164472013-08-21T20:32:00.001+10:002013-08-22T01:14:54.949+10:00Election 2013: Day 17 (or, not quite a jocular conversation)<p>A very quick post tonight. I had a pretty hectic day delivering a speech on social media to public servants, which meant I was away from my desk for about 4 hours and I have a stack of other writing to get done (writing that people pay me to do!) </p> <p>The debate at Brisbane tonight was very good. A real debate in fact. </p> <p>Next week at Rooty Hill, Sky were planning to do another people’s forum like they had in 2010 – one leader at a time. </p> <p>Rudd sensibly has said no to this. I bet Sky will get it changed to have the same format as tonight. The two leaders on the stage at the same time is not only a better debate, it’s much better TV. And you can bet Sky, Seven and Nine want better TV. </p> <p>The moment of the debate that will get all the airtime will be Abbott saying “Does this guy ever shut up?”</p> <p><iframe height="480" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/85Twwv05JUY" frameborder="0" width="640" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe></p> <p>Some will suggest that will be good for Abbott because people get bored by Rudd. And yes, they might, but people also expect their Prime Minister to have better manners than a primary school bully.</p> <p>This could be Abbott’s version of the Latham handshake, because it feeds into the perception that already exists that Abbott is a bit of a brute – someone who is liable to snap if pushed a bit too hard. </p> <p>Think back to 2004. Who do you picture saying “Does this guy ever shut up?” Howard or Latham? </p> <p>This is the guy who wants to represent us at the G20. And he’s talking in a way you would tell off your son for doing were he to say that of someone within your earshot. </p> <p>The other thing is that line absolutely slaughters the news.corp narrative that Rudd is angry</p> <p><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-j4-mu9B-668/UhSXR76T91I/AAAAAAAAIt4/ZlsFLHD6Lxk/s1600-h/Another%252520idiotic%252520article%25255B3%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Another idiotic article" border="0" alt="Another idiotic article" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixSiG8Iqw51SSOB889VF_g3TZb5-5daeiszTJYIQbv7e4Poa4b-RwmGTLDx3THzZtLkmXSN4QD3c5G6KYDwer6plq0-c54AnbwL6N10TXyxzi3-l0zPtWcR7haxTFjfk-9V98wROyJOkGO/?imgmax=800" width="622" height="238" /></a></p> <p>So who won the actual policy debate?</p> <p>I thought Rudd was weak on Abbott's PPL other than asking where the costings are. As I’ve said, they really need to explain that it’s $5b a year spent on something that no one thinks will achieve anything that it is supposed to achieve. For mine, the line should be: “It’s not only unfair; it’s a waste of $5b”. It won’t lift productivity, it won’t lift participation. Spend money on things that work. </p> <p>But as for the rest of the deabte? Well who cares? These things are a TV show, and Abbott gave everyone a grab to use and discuss. It’ll be he that is having to try and spin it into a positive tomorrow, not Rudd. </p> <p>*** </p> <p>Of course I forget that we live in a country with News.corp excreting its view on to everyone (well the few old people who still buy papers) </p> <p>The front page of the Courier Mail:</p> <p><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-XjMhcYg9UKs/UhS3c4uPFYI/AAAAAAAAIuQ/T_-qjk__nB4/s1600-h/Dying%252520paper%252520dies%252520slowly%252520and%252520miserably%25255B3%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Dying paper dies slowly and miserably" border="0" alt="Dying paper dies slowly and miserably" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-tUQGjCrePqQ/UhS3d6JSSyI/AAAAAAAAIuY/j90rHeIi0RQ/Dying%252520paper%252520dies%252520slowly%252520and%252520miserably_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="265" height="360" /></a></p> <p>At this point it is worth noting that in a one paper town, the latest newspaper circulation figures for the Courier Mail are <a href="http://www.crikey.com.au/2013/08/16/newspaper-circulation-results-shocker-the-contagion-edition/">this</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p>Brisbane’s <em>Courier-Mail</em> <strong>declined by 8.8%</strong> to 173,095 Monday to Friday</p> </blockquote> <p>These newspapers editors think people like being shouted at. But then those who edit the Courier Mail, the Tele and Herald Sun would struggle to find another industry that allowed as many utter f*ck ups as they are allowed in their job.</p> <p>Take this front page of the Courier Mail from a couple week’s ago:</p> <p><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-UAoESMjzXN4/UhS3fTBxv-I/AAAAAAAAIug/20L37RMrjrY/s1600-h/CM%252520Bullshit%25255B3%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="CM Bullshit" border="0" alt="CM Bullshit" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-wV0ocVEVcrI/UhS3gGGvQhI/AAAAAAAAIuo/X7Wp4dTFsTw/CM%252520Bullshit_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="284" height="402" /></a></p> <p>A front page about players getting caught out cheating.</p> <p>Only problem is they weren’t. No one was accusing them of tampering. The “hi-tech” was tape on a bat that has been done for decades, and there was no scandal, nor any suggestion by either team that cheating was occurring. </p> <p>So a front page that contained not one accurate piece of information.</p> <p>Had a doctor, lawyer, teacher, public servant, mechanic, engineer or builder  made an equivalent stuff up – ie getting the main thing you do completely wrong –  that person would be pondering how one stupid choice destroyed their career.</p> <p>Not in newspaper journalism – pats on the back all round. </p> <p>This is also the same newspaper which on its website on Wednesday had this story:</p> <p><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-fM0iOLAMFRk/UhTYMOWntlI/AAAAAAAAIu4/l_K6L0eg3HA/s1600-h/Party%252520Games-%252520Labor%252527s%252520campaign%252520bus%252520is%252520careering%252520out%252520of%252520control%252520as%252520the%252520campaign%252520hits%252520the%252520halfway%252520mark%252520-%252520The%252520Courier-Mail%25255B3%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Party Games- Labor's campaign bus is careering out of control as the campaign hits the halfway mark - The Courier-Mail" border="0" alt="Party Games- Labor's campaign bus is careering out of control as the campaign hits the halfway mark - The Courier-Mail" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-SUcr4PhPt7I/UhTYNs65WjI/AAAAAAAAIvA/6R_1HpJTquo/Party%252520Games-%252520Labor%252527s%252520campaign%252520bus%252520is%252520careering%252520out%252520of%252520control%252520as%252520the%252520campaign%252520hits%252520the%252520halfway%252520mark%252520-%252520The%252520Courier-Mail_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="552" height="493" /></a></p> <p>The photo they used to convey the sense that Rudd is angry was, as <a href="https://twitter.com/Therese_Rein/status/369969401388224512">Therese Rein tweeted</a>, from a service at the Australian War Memorial. They are actually pictured here listening to the names of those who have died in Afghanistan being read out.</p> <p>When this was drawn to the paper’s attention they removed the pic and placed this “editor’s note” at the bottom:</p> <p><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-nTCgS6oiEqg/UhTYOIToowI/AAAAAAAAIvE/nicRRYkjnLg/s1600-h/Pathetic%252520Editor%252527s%252520Note%252520by%252520The%252520Courier-Mail%25255B3%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Pathetic Editor's Note by The Courier-Mail" border="0" alt="Pathetic Editor's Note by The Courier-Mail" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-8fi8nt55Zpc/UhTYOu1QDSI/AAAAAAAAIvQ/-IWl-BTxreE/Pathetic%252520Editor%252527s%252520Note%252520by%252520The%252520Courier-Mail_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="616" height="101" /></a></p> <p>Nice. </p> <p>It took a little bit longer for them to click that using a photo of Rudd and his wife at a War Memorial ceremony to essentially bash him was rather disrespectful towards those whose lives where being honoured that day, and to the many who view the AWM as one of the more sacred places in Australia.</p> <p>It was the cheapest of cheap shots. And so they tried again and wrote this note:</p> <p><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/--8Wx5DbmjHA/UhTYPZDG2GI/AAAAAAAAIvY/RcI0yS8G6lo/s1600-h/Finally%252520get%252520round%252520to%252520apologising%252520editor%252527s%252520note-%252520The%252520Courier-Mail%25255B3%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 0px 0px 5px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Finally get round to apologising editor's note- The Courier-Mail" border="0" alt="Finally get round to apologising editor's note- The Courier-Mail" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-52N8V-j0mPM/UhTYQXSQoeI/AAAAAAAAIvg/f2AVrb3Qu1Q/Finally%252520get%252520round%252520to%252520apologising%252520editor%252527s%252520note-%252520The%252520Courier-Mail_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="642" height="158" /></a>Did they purposefully use a photo from the War Memorial? I don’t think so. But they certainly did go searching for any pic they could find in the archives of him looking sad, despite Dennis Atkins’ article being about Rudd on Tuesday being angry. </p> <p>So yeah, they were being malicious. Nothing in the original photo caption suggests the photo wasn’t taken the day before – the reader was led to believe it was. </p> <p>The problem for the Courier Mail is using a photo from the War Memorial was more malicious than they intended to be and thus they were caught out.   </p> <p>Either way, sh*t journalism, sh*t editorial work, and a sh*t initial response. </p> <p>An 8% decline in a one paper town. </p> <p>I can’t understand why…</p> Greg Jerichohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04956402439870441083noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8434369190746987531.post-29929580285833654232013-08-20T21:47:00.001+10:002013-08-20T21:52:28.255+10:00Election 2013: Day 16 (or, Frankly my dear, I don’t think they giver a damn)<p>Today was an odd one of the election. There were a couple new policies released, but it wasn’t much of a big deal.</p> <p>It was such a bit of a nothing day that ABC’s 7:30 Report didn’t even get round to recapping the day’s events till after its expose on the Cronulla Sharks. <a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/--t5OCWV-nSY/UhNXQ1K2-EI/AAAAAAAAItQ/3eKfGJVqY58/s1600-h/Twitter%252520-%252520ellinghausen-%252520Opposition%252520Leader%252520Tony%252520Abbott%252520...%25255B3%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 5px 0px 0px 5px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; float: right; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Twitter - ellinghausen- Opposition Leader Tony Abbott ..." border="0" alt="Twitter - ellinghausen- Opposition Leader Tony Abbott ..." align="right" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-hyRFSxVkVV0/UhNXRxGrLUI/AAAAAAAAItY/Duj_7HFJmN0/Twitter%252520-%252520ellinghausen-%252520Opposition%252520Leader%252520Tony%252520Abbott%252520..._thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="419" height="390" /></a></p> <p>It was a day that reinforced that there’s not a lot of money going around. The old days of needing a policy in the billions to get the wow factor are gone. And so today we had Tony Abbott on the Great Ocean Road looking at potholes.</p> <p>He was <a href="http://www.tonyabbott.com.au/News/tabid/94/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/9416/The-Coalitions-commitment-to-upgrade-the-Great-Ocean-Road.aspx">there to hand out $25 million over 5 years</a> to help repair the road on the ocean that is so great. </p> <p>Cripes. Back in 2004 or 2007 such a thing would have been lucky to make it onto a media release. </p> <p>But when the budget is in an “emergency” you can’t very well go spending hand over fist. </p> <p>Of course however the Liberal Party is handing out a a fair bit of money for one policy – it’s PPL. And for the third day is was the most talked about policy. And not in a :gee this thing is a great vote winner way.</p> <p>Robert Gottliebsen picked up on the fact that for the Libs policy to be fully paid for by hitting not businesses, but shareholders. And not indirectly – <a href="http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/8/19/economy/retirees-will-pay-paid-parental-leave-scheme">but directly</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p>But then comes Tony and Joe’s sleight of hand attack on retirees. Many big corporate taxpayers, like banks, pay around three quarters of their profits out in dividends and there is constant pressure from retirees for companies to payout more, especially now interest rates on bank deposits have been reduced. Most dividends (but not all) are fully franked because they come out of tax paid profits.</p> <p>So a superannuation fund obtains a franking credit equal to the tax paid by the company. Those franking credits are currently calculated at a tax rate of 30 cents in the dollar. When the Abbott-Hockey plan is introduced the franking credits will be calculated on the basis of 28.5 cent in the dollar. They are worth less and so the retirees and those saving to pay for retirement cop the bill because Abbott and Hockey have simply swapped a tax for a levy aiming to lower the franking credit.</p> </blockquote> <p>In other words, while big businesses will end up paying an effective 30% tax rate, what is happening is they first get the cut to 28.5% then they get the levy to go back to 30%. But the franking credit will be calculated on the 28.5% rate not the 30%. And thus it is worth less.</p> <p>Sweet eh?</p> <p>The Liberal Party, who so loudly and boldly defend self-funded retirees, is now getting them to help pay for a paid parental leave scheme which they won’t get any possible benefit from and which is also a dud of a scheme because it won’t deliver the productivity benefits Abbott and Hockey claim it will.</p> <p>Wow that’s great policy and outstanding politics!</p> <p><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/aug/20/coalition-paid-parental-leave-tax-credits">Lenore Taylor in Guardian Australia</a> went back to the <a href="http://www.aph.gov.au/~/media/05%20About%20Parliament/54%20Parliamentary%20Depts/548%20Parliamentary%20Budget%20Office/Greens%20Costings/Releases/PBO%20-%20GRN011%20-%20A%20better%20Paid%20Parental%20Leave%20PPL%20scheme.ashx">Parliamentary Budget Office’s costings of the Greens’ PPL scheme</a>. The Greens’ scheme cuts out at $100,000 rather than $150,00 but otherwise is much the same. </p> <p>As Taylor writes:</p> <blockquote> <p>The costings show that the Coalition’s decision not to allow shareholders to claim franking credits, which reduce their income tax bill, on the 1.5% levy reduces the cost of the scheme to the government by $3.2bn over the first four years. The saving amounts to about $1.6bn per year once the scheme is fully up and running.</p> </blockquote> <p>Now back in May when the PBO’s costing of the Libs scheme were apparently leaked to the AFR the Lib’s rejected both the leaked costings and those by <a href="https://www.tai.org.au/index.php?q=node%2F19&pubid=1152&act=display">the Australia Institute</a></p> <blockquote> <p>Senator Cormann also rejected calculations by The Australia Institute that suggest a Coalition government would have to double its planned levy on business from 1.5 per cent to 3 per cent to adequately fund the scheme, because 46 per cent of the extra company tax raised under the scheme as proposed would be lost in franking credits returned to shareholders.</p> </blockquote> <p>It seems the reason why it might not be losing the franking credit is because they’re not going to be returned to shareholders. </p> <p>Perhaps the best response the ALP can have is that of Joe Hockey back when interest rates were <a href="http://www.joehockey.com/media/transcripts/details.aspx?s=459">cut in May</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p>We express concerns for those people that rely on income from savings accounts. Let’s think about all of those people for the moment who are facing lower income from their savings – particularly self-funded retirees.</p> </blockquote> <p>Today Tony Abbott, was shall we say, a tad effusive on the figures of how it was all going to be paid. Yesterday Joe Hockey in an interview with Neil Mitchell put the amount that the levy would cover from 50% to 60% to 70%. Today <a href="http://www.tonyabbott.com.au/News/tabid/94/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/9420/Joint-Press-Conference-Geelong-Victoria.aspx">a journalist in the press gallery</a> tried to get something a bit more narrow out of Tony Abbott:</p> <blockquote> <p><strong>QUESTION: </strong>Joe Hockey did have a stab yesterday at putting a figure on a share of the PPL would be covered by the levy. It ranged between 50 per cent and 70 per cent, but he did have a go at it. Can you have a go at it and tell us what the figure is and how concerned should you be that your Treasury spokesman can’t put a figure on it within a 20 per cent point range?</p> </blockquote> <blockquote> <p><strong>TONY ABBOTT: </strong>Well I saw the debate, or aspects of the debate last night, between Joe Hockey and the Treasurer and I think anyone watching the debate on Q&A last night would say that the stewardship of our nation’s finances will be in much better shape under Joe Hockey than under the Treasurer. Now, the fact is it’s been fully costed by the Parliamentary Budget Office. It is fully funded. It’s fully funded by the company levy, the levy on large companies, the discontinuation of the existing scheme and by ending double dipping. Now it is fully funded, fully costed, it’s a very important economic advance.</p> </blockquote> <p>This was a whole day after Hockey’s flub. You would think they could come up with a better answer than that!</p> <p>Do they care that they’re being hounded about the costing? It seems not at this point. </p> <p>My feeling however – and it is mostly based on the attitude of the QANA audience last night to both Hockey and Bowen –  is that people are getting tired of the ”in good time” line. </p> <p>This is Tony Abbott’s “signature policy”. This is the one he has had hanging around his neck the longest. It is his baby and he is either too embarrassed to explain how it is paid for, or he is too ignorant of the details. Take you pick. It ain’t good for him</p> <p> In an election where big numbers are thin on the ground and the details of this policy are coming apart bit by bit, I expect to see this once again be a topic for questions tomorrow. Especially as state governments are involved so there’s plenty of places to get quotes of Premiers saying they’re not sure about it. </p> <p>Importantly tomorrow night Rudd and Abbott are having their “people forum” debate in Brisbane. If Abbott hasn’t announced all the costings for it by then, expect Rudd to go in very hard. And given last night on QANDA the audience was frequently yelling out to both sides for “the numbers”, saying “It’s fully funded” won’t be enough, no matter how often he says it. </p> <p>***</p> <p>Kevin Rudd’s day started at a school in the electorate of Graeme Perrett (he who once vowed to resign if Rudd came back). He was fired up, but as Katharine Murhpy noted, it did remind one a bit of John Hewson in 1993.  Passion is great, but you don’t want to be seen shouting and leading a chorus too much; it starts to look desperate. </p> <p>His big policy today was $250 million for medical research – $125m from the govt, $125m from the private sector.  </p> <p>He announced:</p> <blockquote> <p>The Government will contribute $125 million to be matched at least dollar for dollar by private sector investors, generating a total investment of $250 million, a major injection of investment capital into our emerging biotechnology sector.</p> </blockquote> <blockquote> <p>In addition, Labor will implement around $70 million of investments and reforms as part of its initial response to the 2013 McKeon Review of Health and Medical Research.</p> </blockquote> <blockquote> <p>This includes delivering $47.5 million in funding for 19 Centres for Research Excellence to encourage research in fields identified as national priorities.</p> </blockquote> <blockquote> <p>This also includes establishing four new Centres that will focus on Indigenous health, national clinical trials, international health and genomics.</p> </blockquote> <p><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-s2FYHLkBpkU/UhNXS9aMYZI/AAAAAAAAItg/97X8OR8o1Mo/s1600-h/Kevin%252520Rudd%252520to%252520unveil%252520%252524125m%252520fund%252520for%252520health%252520and%252520medical%252520research%252520-%252520World%252520news%252520-%252520theguardian.com%25255B4%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; margin: 5px 6px 0px 1px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; float: left; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Kevin Rudd to unveil $125m fund for health and medical research - World news - theguardian.com" border="0" alt="Kevin Rudd to unveil $125m fund for health and medical research - World news - theguardian.com" align="left" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-_n3AuT7eUfU/UhNXT1ZrVUI/AAAAAAAAIto/CaB_9q74-p8/Kevin%252520Rudd%252520to%252520unveil%252520%252524125m%252520fund%252520for%252520health%252520and%252520medical%252520research%252520-%252520World%252520news%252520-%252520theguardian.com_thumb%25255B2%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="413" height="294" /></a></p> <p>It comes off the back of the <a href="http://www.mckeonreview.org.au/"><em>Strategic Review of Health and Medical Research</em></a>, and geez policy is so much better when it actually comes after some actual research into what should be done. And because the $125m is an equity based investment – ie not a grant – it is in effect “off budget” – because there are expected returns from the investment. </p> <p>Sound policy based on a report, coupled with $70m in announcement of things already funded by the government. That’s who you do policy during an election campaign when you;re the government. </p> <p>The Libs have also used the so-called McKeon Review to come up with e medical research policy. <a href="http://www.liberal.org.au/protect-and-streamline-health-and-medical-research-funding">Their polic</a>y is about streamlining funding grant processes, rather than giving more money. So it will be interesting to see if Peter Dutton pops up his head to respond in any meaningful way. </p> <p>Thus far all I’ve seen is a comment. I wonder if he’ll ever get to stand next to Abbott in a press conference and answer some questions?</p> <p>We wait.. and wait.. and wait… (ok let’s be honest, no one would ever really wait to hear Peter Dutton speak)  </p> <p>***</p> <p>Today Tony Abbott also announced he would change the name of Disability Care back to the National Disability Insurance Scheme. Now I know some have suggest the current name is a bit demeaning, but I’ve never been too hung up about it. </p> <p>But it is interesting that Kevin Rudd hasn’t campaigned on the NDIS at all. It has received a bit of a mention, but only in a list of things the ALP has done. </p> <p>It is clearly Julia Gillard’s policy, but Rudd should be able to swallow the pride and run hard on it. </p> <p>***</p> <p>Bill Shorten turned up at the National Press Club for a debate on education. Only problem is Chris Pyne was a no show. Not a shock. But it was a blessing for anyone who had tuned in to watch.</p> <p>I know Shorten gets some grief, and he was full of passion today (<a href="https://twitter.com/gabriellechan/statuses/369649861781495808">perhaps too full of passion</a>) but I think when he leaves the factional argy bargy alone and talks policy he speaks well.l I still recall the speech he gave at the ALP National Conference in support <a href="http://billshorten.com.au/speech_to_alp_national_conference_why_labor_must_introduce_an_ndis">on the NDIS</a> that was as good as you’ll see in Australian politics. </p> <p>***</p> <p>A Liberal Party candidate in Greg Combet’s old seat was dumped after <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national-news/federal-election/federal-election-2013-day-16-of-the-campaign/story-fnho52ip-1226700260728">reports came out</a> that he had run a web forum for of all things Mini Coopers, which had a lot of sexist, racist, jokes on it. </p> <p>I realise because he ran it he has extra responsibility but I’m predicting this will not be the last time a candidate will be kicked off because of something he (it’ll most likely be a he) said on the internet. As Barrack Obama said to a of school kid who asked him what he could do to become President one day:</p> <blockquote> <p>“I want everybody here to be careful about what you post on Facebook, because in the YouTube age whatever you do, it will be pulled up again later somewhere in your life. That’s number one.”</p> </blockquote> <p>Yep.</p> Greg Jerichohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04956402439870441083noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8434369190746987531.post-17768688521062932022013-08-19T21:48:00.001+10:002013-08-19T23:27:04.904+10:00Election 2013: Day 15 (or, throwing the costings out with the bath water)<p>So the big splash for the Libs in the friendly <a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-tDQb9s4SsGA/UhIGD-T5cuI/AAAAAAAAIrQ/O8k35Z7hF3k/s1600-h/SDT-12.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; margin: 5px 0px 0px 5px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; float: right; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="SDT 1" border="0" alt="SDT 1" align="right" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-LwWDuspzoWk/UhIGE3-0E7I/AAAAAAAAIrY/xd9SdKBPLGg/SDT-1_thumb.png?imgmax=800" width="178" height="244" /></a>Sunday papers was all about babies. Well no, but that was the way it was spun. It was actually about Abbott’s 3 year old paid parental leave scheme. You have to love that a policy first announced in early 2010 is still able to badged up as an exclusive that deserves a front page massage. </p> <p>I wish I had kept a copy of every front page story this policy has been given over the years. I’d say a minimum of four at least. </p> <p>Oh well. Let’s be generous and say at least it is a policy. </p> <p>Now firstly I written quite a bit about this policy – <a href="http://grogsgamut.blogspot.com.au/2010/03/on-qt-all-mothers-are-sacred-especially.html">here</a>, and <a href="http://grogsgamut.blogspot.com.au/2012/04/tony-abbott-paid-parental-leave-and.html">here</a>. Most recently on my <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2013/jul/02/abbott-paid-parental-leave-cost">Guardian blog</a>.</p> <p>So I’ll try not to repeat myself (Oh bugger it you know I will). And let’s see if we can focus on the positives. </p> <p>I guess given they have had the thing hanging in the Liberal Party closet for so long now, I’m sure this time we have got all the costings to go with it? You know just to make sure that they have crossed all the i’s and dotted all the t’s. </p> <p>And best of all we <strong>know</strong> we are going to see the costings because as <a href="http://www.joehockey.com/media/transcripts/details.aspx?s=500">Joe Hockey said on the weekend</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p><b>JOURNALIST: </b>Are you still going to wait until that last week to release the costings to the public?</p> </blockquote> <p><b></b></p> <blockquote> <p><b>JOE HOCKEY: </b>What we have said is - you don’t release policy costings before you release the policies.</p> </blockquote> <p>So given this policy is now announced, we’re going to get to see it all!</p> <p><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-_8Q-tPGQdZE/UhIGFcjbN6I/AAAAAAAAIrg/GtTD0OLDqG8/s1600-h/The-Coalition--Parliament-of-Austral.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; margin: 5px 5px 0px 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="The Coalition – Parliament of Australia" border="0" alt="The Coalition – Parliament of Australia" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-Mp8TC1b-IGs/UhIGGZTwbEI/AAAAAAAAIro/qWUR1DTGXqM/The-Coalition--Parliament-of-Austral%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="536" height="277" /></a></p> <p>Hmm. Well that seems to be a no. </p> <p>Look I know I am being a right pest about these costing. I should just trust Joe Hockey. After he also <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2010/s2987074.htm">said this on the weekend</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p><strong>JOE HOCKEY</strong>: Well we've been releasing the costings on individual policies along the way. And therefore you don't release, you don't release policies and costings before the appropriate time during the election.</p> <p>I mean can I, can I say this Lyndal? Labor did not at the last election nor at this election has it released all of its costings. At the last election…</p> <p><strong>LYNDAL CURTIS</strong>: But don't you want to be better than Labor?</p> <p><strong>JOE HOCKEY</strong>: We are. And we are. That's exactly what we're doing. We have released the most comprehensive analysis of a political party's costings and policies ever. Ever.</p> </blockquote> <p>Oh wait, sorry that was what he said back in 2010. You know back when their costings ended up being out by around <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/national/lib-policy-costings-exposed-by-ruling-20111130-1o773.html">$11 billion dollars</a>. </p> <p>My mistake. </p> <p>Here’s what Hockey said on the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2013/s3827885.htm">weekend</a> (when he announced that he had picked three people – Peter Shergold, Ian Scanlon and Geoff Carmody to “sign off” on his costings):</p> <blockquote> <p>JOE HOCKEY: No, no, not at all. Not at all, not one second. Every number the government has produced for the last six years has been wrong, and having an independent verification process as well as using the Parliamentary Budget Office means that no Opposition has ever put more effort into ensuring that the numbers are correct.</p> </blockquote> <p>Yeah. Show me them, and then we’ll talk. Till then you’re just an empty suit. </p> <p>But we should be glad that at least their PPL <a href="http://www.tonyabbott.com.au/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=WL5w8HpGQzY%3d&tabid=86">policy document</a> does give us a <strong>bit</strong> of detail. </p> <p>In fact it gives us just enough detail to realise that the long said line that the PPL scheme will be covered by a “modest increase” in the company tax is a fib. </p> <p>Right at the end under “Costings” we find: “The cost will be fully met by associated reductions in other outlays”.</p> <p>I guess these associated reduction are a bit like “on road costs”: the salesperson doesn’t want to include them in the price of the car, or actually mention them, but you sure as heck will end up paying for them…</p> <p>One of the other ways in which the cost of the policy is covered is from the state governments paying money to the Federal Government in the case of the state employee choosing to take the federal scheme rather than the state scheme. On this aspect the journalists at <a href="http://www.tonyabbott.com.au/News/tabid/94/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/9413/Joint-Press-Conference-Sydney-New-South-Wales.aspx">this morning’s press conference</a> were pretty good:</p> <blockquote> <p><strong>QUESTION: </strong>Mr Abbott, just on paid parental leave, Mr Abbott, one of the savings measures that you’re counting is preventing state public service workers from double dipping, that of course has been costed by the PBO you say. What’s the value of that saving? You must be able to put a dollar figure on it? I mean how is it real? Don’t you need an agreement with the states to do that? Aren’t you just announcing something now and trying to finalise it later?</p> </blockquote> <p>Excellent question, goes to the heart of it all. <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/election-2013/libs-risk-blowout-on-paid-leave-for-mums/story-fn9qr68y-1226699572371">The Australian's David Crowe and Patricia Karvelas</a> report that if the states don’t come to the party the costs could be short rather a sizeable sum. </p> <p>So let’s see how Abbott goes giving us a “fair dinkum” response for his “fair dinkum” policy.  </p> <blockquote> <p><strong>TONY ABBOTT: </strong>Look, there are many things which are obviously subject to agreement, but sensible adult governments are normally able to get agreement and obviously the state premiers understand that if we are relieving them of some hundreds of millions of dollars of obligations that they’ve got, there ought to be a fair trade-off. The state premiers understand that and we’ve got some 18 months or so between an election should we win and the beginning of the policy and that is more than enough time for sensible adult governments to sit down and negotiate what are sensible win-win arrangements.</p> </blockquote> <p>Tony Abbott might want to ask Julia Gillard how it went dealing with “sensible adult governments” to get health deals and schools funding deals done.</p> <p>There was also a good question about the impact of franking credits on the amount of tax raised by the 1.5% tax increase to pay for part of the scheme. </p> <p>And then one question that went right to the centre of the policy failure that is the Liberal Party’s scheme.  </p> <p>It is supposed to improve productivity and participation. So one journalists asked Abbott to explain that:</p> <blockquote> <p><strong>QUESTION: </strong>Chris Richardson has said that your policy is unsustainable, the paid parental leave scheme policy, can you quantify <strong>how it will boost productivity</strong>?</p> </blockquote> <blockquote> <p><strong>TONY ABBOTT: </strong>Well, it is absolutely sustainable because it’s fully costed and fully funded. Our policy is the same broad policy as exits in most of the OECD countries right around the world, now why is it that it is sustainable there and  unsustainable here? <strong>I would respectively suggest to the learned economist in question that he go back and look at the Productivity Commission report</strong> that he read our policy and I am confident that fair minded observers looking at our policy will accept that it is good for our economy, as well as being good for our society.</p> </blockquote> <p>Having read <a href="http://www.pc.gov.au/projects/inquiry/parental-support/report">the report</a> a few times now, I’ll spare you the chore and will quote the pertinent statements which refer to PPL scheme’s like the Liberal Party’s: </p> <blockquote> <p>It would also entail support for high-earning women, who already have strong attachment to the labour force, often receive privately negotiated paid maternity leave, and usually have better access to resources to self-finance leave.</p> </blockquote> <p>So it’s expensive and that expense is to paid cater to women who already have pretty good access to leave. Not sure that is what Abbott had in mind. </p> <p>OK, what about the benefits? </p> <blockquote> <p>Payment at a flat rate would mean that the labour supply effects would be greatest for lower income, less skilled women — precisely those who are most responsive to <br />wage subsidies and who are least likely to have privately negotiated paid parental leave.</p> <p>Full replacement wages for highly educated, well paid women would be very costly for taxpayers and, given their high level of attachment to the labour force and a high level of private provision of paid parental leave, <strong>would have few incremental labour supply benefits</strong>.</p> </blockquote> <p>Now again, that doesn’t strike me as the Productivity Commission giving the Liberal’s scheme a big thumbs up. But then, I’m not probably the most “fair minded observer”. </p> <p>But we don’t need to take the Productivity Commission's word for it. Joe Hockey <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-18/coalition-announce-start-date-of-paid-parental-leave-scheme/4894636">this morning</a> </p> <blockquote> <p>“It applies to the people most vulnerable, those who are pouring the coffees, collecting the cups, those who are involved in the day to day work that many people take for granted,” he said.</p> </blockquote> <blockquote> <p>“Often women on lower incomes, this is the shot in the arm that gives them income security and job security on a scale we have never seen before.”</p> </blockquote> <p>Exactly right – it is those on low incomes who benefit most from paid parental leave. The benefits of applying to those on higher incomes is well.. “few”. And the cost of that is, shall we say, “not few” </p> <p>Laura Tingle in the <a href="http://www.afr.com/Page/Uuid/c0ceff58-07b8-11e3-a1a5-364fb33c5673">AFR</a> pretty well nailed it:</p> <blockquote> <p>The Coalition’s paid parental leave scheme is policy so bad, so appalling – on both policy and political grounds – that in any reasonable contest, it should give Labor a fighting chance to get back in the election race.</p> </blockquote> <p>Spot on. Unfortunately for ALP supporters she was spot on with her next paragraph as well:</p> <blockquote> <p>Unfortunately for decent public policy, and for us as taxpayers, we cannot be confident, on the basis of Labor’s political form in the campaign so far, that it will be able to consign this piece of irresponsible, populist junk to the dustbin of history.</p> </blockquote> <p>For mine, yes you can argue the regressive nature of it, where the government is giving people more money because they earn more, but the big deal for me has always been that it is a waste of money.</p> <p>If there was any sense of equivalent benefits to be gained from the cost, then I could get on board. I could be convinced that the amount should be capped at the median wage, but the costs of the Libs current policy is so utterly detached from any benefits that it is absurd.</p> <p>The Liberal Party in what is apparently a time of a budget emergency is spending $5b a year on a policy which won’t achieve what they say it will achieve!</p> <p>$5b a year gone for no gain. Think up some things that could be spent on that a year, and there’s you advert. </p> <p>Forget rich mothers and poor, this is a $5b productivity measure which won’t improve productivity. </p> <p>That’s the advert. Leave the rich-poor fight out of this. No one rich or poor likes a government wasting money for no discernable benefit. </p> <p>***</p> <p>Speaking of wasting money, a big “scoop” today was that some $5 million in cheques from the government for the GFC stimulus payments that have been sent out this year. I use “scoop” advisedly because Shane Wright of the West Australian actually had the story <a href="http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/18120862/47-000-stimulus-cheques-not-cashed/">back in July</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p>Four years after they were mailed out to save the economy, 47,000 stimulus cheques remain uncashed ready and waiting to be spent.</p> </blockquote> <blockquote> <p>Figures obtained by <i>The West Australian </i>show there is about $39 million in cheques stuck on fridges, attached to pin boards or hiding in shoeboxes.</p> </blockquote> <blockquote> <p>The Tax Office distributed 8.8 million payments totalling $7.7 billion in late 2008 and early 2009.</p> </blockquote> <p>But, yeah “exclusive”. And of course the Liberal Party was all over it. </p> <p>Now it might be nice if the Liberal Party could come up with a better way of administering the tax system, but just as if someone was owed a tax refund for that year and they had not received it, it would be sent out again – especially if that person was late in doing their taxes. (I’m sure I’m not the only person who knows someone who has not bothered putting a tax return in one year and then finally gets around to doing it a year or so later) </p> <p>But ok, maybe the Government should have included in the legislation that the cheques needed to be cashed by a certain date, but I doubt the legality of that would fly as my understanding is government issued cheques don’t have a statute of limitations </p> <p>But hey, there were $7.7billion worth of payments. And we’re talking $5 million. That’s about 0.065%. The Libs are setting the bar pretty bloody high for “waste”. </p> <p>Look, it’s $5 million in “waste”. Fair enough the Liberal Party are all over it. But geez, I can’t wait till they find out about the $5 billion that one party is blowing for no good reason. </p> <p>***</p> <p>On other policy things today, the Libs went full Laura Norder in western Sydney. Always good when a Federal campaign turns state government like. </p> <p>Meanwhile Kevin Rudd was announcing a <a href="http://www.kevinrudd.org.au/latest2_190813">policy</a> in aged care and putting $20 million in to a program called Active Ageing and also <a href="http://www.kevinrudd.org.au/latest4_180813">$357 million on health</a>, in which he talked about the Liberals policy to cut Medicare Locals.  </p> <p>Actually it’s not the stated policy of the Liberal Party. That would require the Liberal Party to have a policy. At present it’s all a bit vague and involves reviews, and then the cut (probably). </p> <p>Maybe at some point we will be deigned worthy enough to get some details, but I doubt it. </p> <p>***</p> <p>But look it could all be worse. You could be the journalist who wrote this story:</p> <p><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-eW7S3-bLccM/UhIGGoem51I/AAAAAAAAIrw/3wMVSuLp9d0/s1600-h/%252527Moon-faced%252527%252520PM%252520%252527comfort%252520eating%252527%252520as%252520the%252520stress%252520of%252520the%252520Federal%252520Election%252520campaign%252520takes%252520its%252520toll%252520-%252520News.com.au%25255B3%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="'Moon-faced' PM 'comfort eating' as the stress of the Federal Election campaign takes its toll - News.com.au" border="0" alt="'Moon-faced' PM 'comfort eating' as the stress of the Federal Election campaign takes its toll - News.com.au" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-nVQPEnL55B4/UhIGHYlOBUI/AAAAAAAAIr4/8qGjA-m4c_0/%252527Moon-faced%252527%252520PM%252520%252527comfort%252520eating%252527%252520as%252520the%252520stress%252520of%252520the%252520Federal%252520Election%252520campaign%252520takes%252520its%252520toll%252520-%252520News.com.au_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="628" height="152" /></a></p> <p>***</p> <p>Actually it could be even worse. You could be the journalist who wrote this story:</p> <p><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-zA1FpViUkSM/UhIUHAjNOWI/AAAAAAAAIsI/hpjoNospBDM/s1600-h/PM%252527s%252520Afghanistan%252520visit%252520cost%252520total%252520of%252520%252524810%25252C000%252520-%252520Latests%252520news%252520and%252520videos%252520on%252520the%252520Australian%252520Federal%252520Election%2525202013%252520-%252520Herald%252520Sun%25255B3%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="PM's Afghanistan visit cost total of $810,000 - Latests news and videos on the Australian Federal Election 2013 - Herald Sun" border="0" alt="PM's Afghanistan visit cost total of $810,000 - Latests news and videos on the Australian Federal Election 2013 - Herald Sun" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-Me_DiGusBJM/UhIUH7FaCMI/AAAAAAAAIsQ/oyOpG4o4gzo/PM%252527s%252520Afghanistan%252520visit%252520cost%252520total%252520of%252520%252524810%25252C000%252520-%252520Latests%252520news%252520and%252520videos%252520on%252520the%252520Australian%252520Federal%252520Election%2525202013%252520-%252520Herald%252520Sun_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="647" height="135" /></a></p> <p>For f*cks sake. How pathetic. </p> <p>I’ll go back and see all the criticism news.corp slapped on Tony Abbott for when he travelled to Afghanistan, you know like this one:</p> <p><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-s6bRhTw916k/UhIUISqlL8I/AAAAAAAAIsY/ePULxvAd5zc/s1600-h/Tony%252520Abbott%252520pays%252520surprise%252520visit%252520to%252520Diggers%252520in%252520Afghanistan%252520-%252520News.com.au%25255B3%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Tony Abbott pays surprise visit to Diggers in Afghanistan - News.com.au" border="0" alt="Tony Abbott pays surprise visit to Diggers in Afghanistan - News.com.au" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-W7sHpQRmCWA/UhIUJC9P6lI/AAAAAAAAIsg/G4JB0chJBy4/Tony%252520Abbott%252520pays%252520surprise%252520visit%252520to%252520Diggers%252520in%252520Afghanistan%252520-%252520News.com.au_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="635" height="135" /></a></p> <p>Was that necessary?</p> <p>What about this one:</p> <p><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-IGrgj54ona0/UhIUKCoc7iI/AAAAAAAAIso/56Yg3TlV4Tg/s1600-h/Abbott%252527s%252520close%252520call%252520in%252520the%252520hurt%252520locker%252520-%252520The%252520Australian%25255B3%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Abbott's close call in the hurt locker - The Australian" border="0" alt="Abbott's close call in the hurt locker - The Australian" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-0Whta5GL0GQ/UhIULJZp9II/AAAAAAAAIsw/DUAJEvWjVTo/Abbott%252527s%252520close%252520call%252520in%252520the%252520hurt%252520locker%252520-%252520The%252520Australian_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="633" height="298" /></a></p> <p>I mean for crying out loud, The Daily Tele has a gallery of photos of Abbott in Afghanistan:</p> <p><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-MKPRnH-7MTk/UhIUL4pEOuI/AAAAAAAAIs4/UnHnwivp8bY/s1600-h/Tony%252520Abbott%252520-%252520Tony%252520Abbott%252520in%252520Afghanistan%252520-%252520Photo%252520Galleries%252520and%252520News%252520Photos%252520-%252520News%252520Pictures%252520and%252520Photos%252520-%252520thetelegraph.com.au%25255B3%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Tony Abbott - Tony Abbott in Afghanistan - Photo Galleries and News Photos - News Pictures and Photos - thetelegraph.com.au" border="0" alt="Tony Abbott - Tony Abbott in Afghanistan - Photo Galleries and News Photos - News Pictures and Photos - thetelegraph.com.au" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-AiPMWYQuuuQ/UhIUMwLDa5I/AAAAAAAAItA/6MxugpC_gKQ/Tony%252520Abbott%252520-%252520Tony%252520Abbott%252520in%252520Afghanistan%252520-%252520Photo%252520Galleries%252520and%252520News%252520Photos%252520-%252520News%252520Pictures%252520and%252520Photos%252520-%252520thetelegraph.com.au_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="615" height="253" /></a></p> <p>God I have such contempt for that news organisation. </p> <p>***</p> <p>Enough grumpiness. Enjoy:</p> <p><iframe height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/5H7BTKTOwLE" frameborder="0" width="560" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe></p> Greg Jerichohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04956402439870441083noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8434369190746987531.post-43242514040489806182013-08-16T21:57:00.001+10:002013-08-16T23:18:07.872+10:00Election 2013: Day 12 (or, this sewer has no bottom)<p>Today was not a good day to be an Australian voter. We were treated today as though we are a bunch of racists. </p> <p>People like to say that voters are to blame for the asylum seeker policies. I don’t think that’s true, anymore than the reason we don’t have same sex marriage in this country is because voters are a bunch of homophobes.</p> <p>But there are some days when our politicians treat us like it is true. Because they offer up policies that suggest that we want nothing more than to dump as much filth onto refugees as we possibly can, purely because of who they are.</p> <p>Of the policies put forward by the major parties that I am ashamed of, most concern asylum seekers. </p> <p>Today however was not one of those days. </p> <p>The policy announced today by Scott Morrison and his second banana, Tony Abbott, has nothing to do with asylum seekers. It has to do with refugees. It is not about “stopping the boats” – to use that most contemptuously condescending phrase – it is about being cruel to people who have been granted refugee status.</p> <p>Today the Liberal Party announced that the 30,000 people here already who are awaiting determination of their asylum claims will not be granted a permanent visa. They will be placed indefinitely on 3 year revolving Temporary Protection Visas. They will not be able to appeal their case to the Federal Court. They will not have the same rights as other residents – if they qualify for dole they will have to work for it in a way unlike others living here. </p> <p>The policy is almost guaranteed to lose when it is challenged in the High Court – and what is more, the number of cases which will be sent to the High Court will serve only, in the words of constitutional lawyer, <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/election-2013/coalition-asylum-policy-facing-legal-turn-back/story-fn9qr68y-1226698239590">George Williams</a> as reported in The Australian, to overwhelm it.</p> <p>This policy will deter no one. There is no need. The ALP already has gone beyond the realms of what John Howard would have thought possible and ruled that no one coming to Australia by boat will be granted asylum here. </p> <p>We have already let it be known that we’re kicking them off to Manus Island and Nauru. </p> <p>But for Scott Morrison that seems to be not enough. Worried perhaps that through some kind of absurdity someone from the ALP might end up swimming lower in the sewer than he is, he dived deeper. And he came up with the retrospective policy that apparently will deter people who are already here from coming here.</p> <p>As Jack the Insider noted of the <a href="http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/jacktheinsider/index.php/theaustralian/comments/setting_sail_on_a_boat_to_nowhere/">policy</a>: </p> <blockquote> <p>[it] is a promise of retrospective deterrence – an oxymoron up there with traditional modern dance. It is an intrinsic contradiction because one cannot be retrospectively deterred from doing what one has already done.</p> </blockquote> <p>The revolving TPVs are not a deterrent. TPVs are the one part of John Howard’s policy which clearly did not work after they were introduced in October 1999. </p> <p>The policy (as is the case with Morrison and Abbott’s new version) did not allow any family reunions. So for example a father who gained refugee status could not then bring his family into the country.</p> <p>So what happened is instead of just the fathers getting on the boat, whole families did. The average person per boat went from 22 in 1998-99, to 56 in 1999-2000, to 77 in 2000-01 and then to rather ludicrous 160 per boat in 2001-02.</p> <p><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-wq4OKVpvClg/Ug4TjUd3FkI/AAAAAAAAIqo/WYhCQzuhFKI/s1600-h/image%25255B8%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="image" border="0" alt="image" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-SXW658hqAfU/Ug4TkNkEjWI/AAAAAAAAIqw/e3dNnablzck/image_thumb%25255B4%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="650" height="319" /></a></p> <p>It’s the only record regarding asylum seeker numbers that the Howard Government still holds. And it doesn’t take too much thinking things through to realise that the boats asylum seekers are on don’t get more safe with more passengers.</p> <p>To get a real sense of the bastardry behind this policy though, take this exchange <a href="http://www.scribblelive.com/Event/SinglePost.aspx?PostId=85385417&lang=undefined">between the ABC’s Lyndal Curtis and Scott Morrison</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p><strong>Lyndal Curtis:</strong> "If they cannot be returned to their home country, for example, the Iranians, if there is not a third country they will voluntarily go to, they remain in detention for how long?"</p> <p><strong>Scott Morrison:</strong> "Until they leave the country."</p> <p><strong>Curtis:</strong> "So potentially for a very long time?"</p> <p><strong>Morrison:</strong> "Well, that's up to them. They can leave at any time."</p> </blockquote> <p>Note, this is for people who <strong>cannot return to their home country</strong>.</p> <p>Geez.</p> <p>As Chris Berg wrote for The Drum in June of the idea that refugees should be denied permanent residency risks creating a permanent underclass. People who, because of their status will be unable to gain long-term employment, will mostly be reduced to working for the dole and not working for the dole in order to gain experience to get work, but purely because working for the dole is all they can get.</p> <p>When you deny a section of society the right to earn a living, and importantly to be able to advance through lawful means, that section will eventually rebel and pursue illegal means of support. This policy is put forward under the overall guise of keeping our suburbs just the way they are. And yet creating a permanent underclass almost guarantees the reverse occurring.</p> <p>***</p> <p>I had a whole lot more to say on this topic – and I did write it. But I deleted it before posting because, while it might not have ventured into defamatory territory, it certainly was full of contempt for this policy and the two men who announced it, and for those who may have advised them of such a strategy. </p> <p>And they really aren’t worth it. </p> <p>At this point, the election has become a race to see who is less worthy of our votes.</p> <p>And today was Abbott’s day to win that race.</p> <p>*** </p> <p>Kevin Rudd was in Perth today. He announced something. I swear I listened to the press conference in full, but I have no idea what he said. <a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-GztgfC2x8Kc/Ug4TlLgSVEI/AAAAAAAAIq4/5wgZNdss2Fg/s1600-h/Election%2525202013-%252520Abbott%252520announces%252520new%252520asylum%252520policy%252520-%252520politics%252520live%252520blog%252520-%252520as%252520it%252520happened%252520-%252520World%252520news%252520-%252520theguardian.com%25255B3%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-right-width: 0px; margin: 5px 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; float: right; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="Election 2013- Abbott announces new asylum policy - politics live blog - as it happened - World news - theguardian.com" border="0" alt="Election 2013- Abbott announces new asylum policy - politics live blog - as it happened - World news - theguardian.com" align="right" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-9YngadFr61U/Ug4Tmc8_LkI/AAAAAAAAIrA/wvC7aeAAmH8/Election%2525202013-%252520Abbott%252520announces%252520new%252520asylum%252520policy%252520-%252520politics%252520live%252520blog%252520-%252520as%252520it%252520happened%252520-%252520World%252520news%252520-%252520theguardian.com_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="455" height="344" /></a></p> <p>I might have passed out at some stage, or perhaps I just went to my happy place that I go to when forced to sit through a dull presentation. </p> <p>Malcolm Farr told me on Twitter it was “about rocks”. </p> <p>I went looking for the transcript, but it’s not up yet (Rudd’s site is a lot slower at getting things up than is Tony Abbott’s). I had a look for the policy on the ALP’s website. It’s not there. And of course why would it be there? </p> <p>Why on earth would you want to have a place where people can find out what you announced that day? Why would you need such a thing when they could have heard it on the 6pm news on the wireless. </p> <p>For crying out loud ALP, get your act in gear. Pathetic. </p> <p>Thankfully the live-blogs have it. Katharine Murphy on <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/aug/15/election-2013-asylum-polls-politics-live-blog">the Guardian</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p>It's all about how we transition out of the mining boom, Rudd says at this press conference. He's unveiling <strong>an oil and gas centre of excellence</strong>. We build for the future, Rudd says. They (the Coalition) "cut, cut and cut." There's <strong>$30m for a floating systems research centre</strong>. There's a reference to "big rocks, little rocks, hard rocks, soft rocks.</p> </blockquote> <p>The ABC’s <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-16/election-live---campaign-day-12/4891004">live blog</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p>“Today I announce we will be investing some $30 million to establish the national floating systems research centre here in Perth. We believe this is going to be a huge potential export platform for services for the future”</p> </blockquote> <p>A $30 million plan. I’ll be honest I have no idea if it’s good or bad, because I haven’t seen any documents on it. </p> <p>Today though there was a lot of talk among gallery types that the ALP is done and dusted. Some even predicting a “landslide”.</p> <p>One of the problems is when you spend you days watching press conferences and looking at polls of single seats with rather large margins of error, you can get locked into thinking that what you are thinking and seeing is what the electorate is. </p> <p>Rudd’s press conference have been long and dull and all over the shop. But most people don’t actually see them.</p> <p>I think he does need to get more refined on his message each day. But dull press conferences doesn’t mean the electorate thinks he is dull. </p> <p>But cripes he <strong>is </strong>dull.</p> <p>There was this interesting titbit on the AFR live blog about Rudd’s visit to a shopping centre in <a href="http://www.afr.com/p/national/politics/rudd_brushes_aside_talk_of_campaign_0NNzIQNZVNLBo5hGngdbbL">Perth</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p><b>4.51pm:</b> The good burghers of West Australia we spoke to today amidst the Rudd madness are not quite as set against him and his party as you might think.</p> </blockquote> <blockquote> <p>A gentleman from Bunbury watching Rudd at the Westfield Carousel who declined to be named says Rudd most definitely had his vote.</p> </blockquote> <blockquote> <p>He runs a construction cleaning company, and says he earned about $100,000 all up from the stimulus package Rudd engineered during the global financial crisis.</p> </blockquote> <blockquote> <p>“He saved our lives with that stimulus package,” he says.</p> </blockquote> <p>Vox pops on their own don’t mean anything. But it’s nice to see a newspaper actually avoid reporting the usually narrative and backing it up with a quote from someone to in some way prove their point.</p> <p>***</p> <p>I haven’t taken too much of an aim at the press gallery following around the leaders, but two examples today from those following Tony Abbott stuck out for me.</p> <p>This was during the Morrison-Abbott press conference where they had just announced a policy that clearly has a few hurdles to overcome legally.</p> <p>But someone asked this:</p> <blockquote> <p><strong>QUESTION: </strong>Are you buoyed by the fact that Labor’s approval rating in the central cost of New South Wales, in seats like Robertson and Dobell keep slipping?</p> </blockquote> <p>Whoever asked this question should be laughed at loud and long. Asking about polls during an election campaign – a period when politicians are actually talking about policy – is bad enough. But asking such a softball, backrub one is beyond useless. It offered Abbott a chance to take a breath while the rest of the pack were asking mostly good policy related questions.</p> <p>It was even more embarrassing because the next question asked was this:</p> <blockquote> <p><strong>QUESTION: </strong>Just in regards to your plans, especially in removing access to the Refugee Review Tribunal and under a Coalition government are you confident that it would survive a High Court challenge?</p> </blockquote> <p>A good question that had Abbott quickly handballing it on to Morrison and which had Morrison waffling away for a minute or so.</p> <p>It was a good question because later in the day Lyndal Curtis tackled Morrison on the same point and he was forced to respond:</p> <blockquote> <p><strong>Lyndal Curtis:</strong> Are you confident or concerned that you may not be able to remove the refugee determination process from legal challenge?</p> </blockquote> <blockquote> <p><strong>Scott Morrison:</strong> "Well, this is the task we're setting officials if we're elected to government. </p> </blockquote> <blockquote> <p>"I'm just not prepared to accept the situation that we can't return to the non-statutory administrative process to end the tick and flick system that the Government has now been running for the last five years."</p> </blockquote> <blockquote> <p>“Lawyers will say it can't be done, the Government will say it can't be done, everyone will say it can't be done.”</p> </blockquote> <blockquote> <p>"We're not going to give up on this."</p> </blockquote> <p>Oh well if you’re not going to give up, I guess that’ll be fine. I hear not giving up is the clinching argument in most cases before the High Court,</p> <p>So send the first journalist home; or at least get them to keep quiet and let the second journalist ask another question in their place. </p> <p>***</p> <p>But look it’s not that bad. The journalist could be asking questions of Tony Abbott in the manner that Ray Hadley did today.</p> <p>Here were some of Abbott’s initial responses to Hadley’s <a href="http://www.tonyabbott.com.au/News/tabid/94/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/9397/Interview-with-Ray-Hadley-Radio-2GB-Sydney.aspx">tough grilling</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p><strong>TONY ABBOTT: </strong>That’s right…</p> </blockquote> <p>…</p> <blockquote> <p><strong>RAY HADLEY: </strong>Do you understand the significance of this day, August 16?</p> <p><strong>TONY ABBOTT: </strong>Yes, I do Ray because three years ago today Julia Gillard said there will be no carbon tax under the government I lead.</p> </blockquote> <p>…</p> <blockquote> <p><strong>TONY ABBOTT: </strong>Ray, I have high hopes…</p> </blockquote> <p>…</p> <blockquote> <p><strong>TONY ABBOTT: </strong>Exactly right, Ray.</p> </blockquote> <p>…</p> <blockquote> <p><strong>TONY ABBOTT: </strong>Yep, that’s true.</p> </blockquote> <p>…</p> <blockquote> <p><strong>TONY ABBOTT: </strong>Well, these are very fair points to make…</p> </blockquote> <p>…</p> <blockquote> <p><strong>TONY ABBOTT: </strong>But I want to assure you Ray…</p> </blockquote> <p>…</p> <blockquote> <p><strong>TONY ABBOTT: </strong>You can add that. You can add that Ray.</p> </blockquote> <p>…</p> <blockquote> <p><strong>TONY ABBOTT: </strong>Look, Ray, thank you for that tribute…</p> </blockquote> <p>…</p> <blockquote> <p><strong>TONY ABBOTT: </strong>Well, that is a very nice tribute….</p> </blockquote> <p>…</p> <blockquote> <p><strong>TONY ABBOTT: </strong>Why are we writing the thing? That’s exactly right. And one of the reasons it has to be said…</p> </blockquote> <p>…</p> <blockquote> <p><strong>TONY ABBOTT: </strong>Thank you so much, Ray.</p></blockquote> Greg Jerichohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04956402439870441083noreply@blogger.com8