The GDP figures released today got me thinking about how unusual the economy is right now. And when I hear talk of Joe Hockey about “how much better we would be if we had a good government” I got to wondering if we have ever had it better?
So here’s a bit of a reality check for Hockey and others.
The last time we had annual GDP Growth of above 3.5% and the RBA’s trimmed mean inflation gauge below 2.5% (it’s currently 2.2%) was in September 1999 when GDP Growth was 3.7% and the Trimmed Mean was 2.1%.
But unemployment then was 6.6%. In March 2012 it was 5.1% (trend terms).
So I wondered, how many times in my lifetime (I turned 40 last month) has Australia had a quarter of GDP growth showing greater than 3.5% annual growth, the trimmed mean inflation below 2.5% and unemployment below 5.5%?
Well since 1978 (I only have the figures for all 3 back to 1978) – NEVER
I’ll wager we’ve not had it since the 1960s as the 1970s was not a decade of what you would call low inflation.
Yep. What a terrible government.
| Inflation (Trimmed Mean) | GDP Annual Growth | Unemployment (trend) | |
| Dec-1978 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 6.3 |
| Mar-1979 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 6.4 |
| Jun-1979 | 9.3 | 3.7 | 6.3 |
| Sep-1979 | 10.1 | 3.1 | 6.2 |
| Dec-1979 | 10.7 | 4.1 | 6.1 |
| Mar-1980 | 10.8 | 1.7 | 6.1 |
| Jun-1980 | 9.2 | 3.7 | 6.2 |
| Sep-1980 | 9.4 | 3.3 | 6.1 |
| Dec-1980 | 8.7 | 3.1 | 5.9 |
| Mar-1981 | 9.3 | 3.1 | 5.7 |
| Jun-1981 | 10.1 | 4.2 | 5.6 |
| Sep-1981 | 11.3 | 5.6 | 5.8 |
| Dec-1981 | 10.6 | 3.5 | 6.0 |
| Mar-1982 | 10.8 | 2.3 | 6.3 |
| Jun-1982 | 12.5 | 1.5 | 6.7 |
| Sep-1982 | 11 | -1.1 | 7.7 |
| Dec-1982 | 9.6 | -2.3 | 9.1 |
| Mar-1983 | 10.7 | -2.5 | 10.0 |
| Jun-1983 | 10 | -3.4 | 10.3 |
| Sep-1983 | 8.5 | 0.5 | 10.1 |
| Dec-1983 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 9.6 |
| Mar-1984 | 7 | 6.9 | 9.3 |
| Jun-1984 | 6.6 | 8.0 | 9.0 |
| Sep-1984 | 6.2 | 5.3 | 8.7 |
| Dec-1984 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 8.6 |
| Mar-1985 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 8.5 |
| Jun-1985 | 6.4 | 5.7 | 8.4 |
| Sep-1985 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 8.0 |
| Dec-1985 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 7.9 |
| Mar-1986 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 7.9 |
| Jun-1986 | 8.6 | 2.0 | 8.0 |
| Sep-1986 | 8.8 | 1.0 | 8.3 |
| Dec-1986 | 9.2 | 2.3 | 8.3 |
| Mar-1987 | 8.9 | 2.7 | 8.3 |
| Jun-1987 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 8.2 |
| Sep-1987 | 8.2 | 5.9 | 8.0 |
| Dec-1987 | 7.5 | 6.2 | 7.8 |
| Mar-1988 | 7.2 | 5.8 | 7.6 |
| Jun-1988 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 7.3 |
| Sep-1988 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 6.9 |
| Dec-1988 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 6.8 |
| Mar-1989 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 6.4 |
| Jun-1989 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 6.1 |
| Sep-1989 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 5.9 |
| Dec-1989 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 6.0 |
| Mar-1990 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 6.2 |
| Jun-1990 | 6.7 | 1.8 | 6.7 |
| Sep-1990 | 6.5 | 0.3 | 7.4 |
| Dec-1990 | 6.6 | 1.0 | 8.1 |
| Mar-1991 | 5.7 | -1.1 | 9.1 |
| Jun-1991 | 5 | -1.5 | 9.7 |
| Sep-1991 | 4.8 | -0.5 | 10.0 |
| Dec-1991 | 3.7 | -1.1 | 10.3 |
| Mar-1992 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 10.6 |
| Jun-1992 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 10.9 |
| Sep-1992 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 11.0 |
| Dec-1992 | 2 | 4.5 | 11.0 |
| Mar-1993 | 2.1 | 4.5 | 10.9 |
| Jun-1993 | 2.2 | 4.4 | 10.9 |
| Sep-1993 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 10.9 |
| Dec-1993 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 10.7 |
| Mar-1994 | 2.3 | 4.4 | 10.3 |
| Jun-1994 | 2.3 | 4.8 | 9.8 |
| Sep-1994 | 2.3 | 5.9 | 9.3 |
| Dec-1994 | 2.2 | 4.3 | 9.0 |
| Mar-1995 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 8.6 |
| Jun-1995 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 8.3 |
| Sep-1995 | 3 | 3.4 | 8.4 |
| Dec-1995 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 8.4 |
| Mar-1996 | 3.2 | 4.7 | 8.4 |
| Jun-1996 | 3 | 4.1 | 8.5 |
| Sep-1996 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 8.6 |
| Dec-1996 | 2.4 | 4.2 | 8.7 |
| Mar-1997 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 8.7 |
| Jun-1997 | 2.1 | 5.1 | 8.6 |
| Sep-1997 | 1.8 | 3.8 | 8.3 |
| Dec-1997 | 1.9 | 4.7 | 8.0 |
| Mar-1998 | 1.7 | 5.8 | 7.8 |
| Jun-1998 | 1.9 | 3.8 | 7.8 |
| Sep-1998 | 1.9 | 5.4 | 7.7 |
| Dec-1998 | 1.7 | 5.3 | 7.4 |
| Mar-1999 | 1.7 | 4.7 | 7.1 |
| Jun-1999 | 1.7 | 4.5 | 6.9 |
| Sep-1999 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 6.8 |
| Dec-1999 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 6.6 |
| Mar-2000 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 6.5 |
| Jun-2000 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 6.2 |
| Sep-2000 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 6.1 |
| Dec-2000 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 6.3 |
| Mar-2001 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 6.6 |
| Jun-2001 | 3 | 1.6 | 6.9 |
| Sep-2001 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 7.0 |
| Dec-2001 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 6.9 |
| Mar-2002 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 6.5 |
| Jun-2002 | 3 | 4.5 | 6.3 |
| Sep-2002 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 6.3 |
| Dec-2002 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 6.1 |
| Mar-2003 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 6.1 |
| Jun-2003 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 6.0 |
| Sep-2003 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 5.8 |
| Dec-2003 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 5.6 |
| Mar-2004 | 2.6 | 4.7 | 5.5 |
| Jun-2004 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 5.5 |
| Sep-2004 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 5.3 |
| Dec-2004 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 5.1 |
| Mar-2005 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 5.1 |
| Jun-2005 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 5.0 |
| Sep-2005 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 5.0 |
| Dec-2005 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 5.1 |
| Mar-2006 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 5.0 |
| Jun-2006 | 3 | 2.6 | 4.8 |
| Sep-2006 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 4.6 |
| Dec-2006 | 3 | 3.2 | 4.6 |
| Mar-2007 | 2.6 | 4.6 | 4.4 |
| Jun-2007 | 2.8 | 5.0 | 4.3 |
| Sep-2007 | 2.8 | 4.8 | 4.3 |
| Dec-2007 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 4.3 |
| Mar-2008 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 4.1 |
| Jun-2008 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 4.2 |
| Sep-2008 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 4.3 |
| Dec-2008 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 4.7 |
| Mar-2009 | 4 | 0.9 | 5.5 |
| Jun-2009 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 5.8 |
| Sep-2009 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 5.7 |
| Dec-2009 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 5.5 |
| Mar-2010 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 5.3 |
| Jun-2010 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 5.2 |
| Sep-2010 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 5.2 |
| Dec-2010 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 5.1 |
| Mar-2011 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 4.9 |
| Jun-2011 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 5.0 |
| Sep-2011 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 5.2 |
| Dec-2011 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 5.2 |
| Mar-2012 | 2.2 | 4.3 | 5.1 |
Note the trimmed mean figure only goes back to 1983, prior to that I use CPI (all via the RBA and ABS)
I left school in 1978, back then a school certificate was not an award for idiocy.
ReplyDeleteThe inflation and unemployment rate was 10 percent back when working a day a fortnight was not counted as employment.
There were no apprenticeships for life or money, only for relatives, if you know what I mean.
In 82 we got the accord and wage restraint, then the 87 crash and the banana republic.
The gst and the tax cuts that cruelly left so many out of its balancing effect.
The 17 percent mortgage where 60 percent of my gross was swallowed.
The open market reforms that said all victims could suit themselves and shop around now that self regulation was the way to go.
Would someone tell me, now that i am 5 years away from the age my father had a stroke, what good superannuation is , if left in the hands of an unregulated private sector.
I could have paid my house off with those funds that government has put into unseen hands.
It really is my money that the private market aristocracy has seemingly put on overinflated horses.