AFL Power List: Round 20 (or it’s all up for grabs)

Another excellent round of footy, capped off with a great game on Sunday evening seeing the Bombers win over the Saints which pretty much kills off Port’s hopes for the finals. With Melbourne’s win over Fremantle despite them having beaten Port last week, and Richmond’s pathetic display over Collingwood I’ve decided all three are equal 14th. In any given week they’re a chance to be the worst team ever to have played the game.

But now let’s break down the jostling for the last spot in the Top 8:

Essendon play Fremantle (W) and the Hawks (?), which puts them on 10 1/2 wins and 1 “maybe”.

Port plays Brisbane (L) and North (W), which puts them on 10 wins Sydney play Collingwood (L) and Brisbane (L), which leaves them on 8 wins.

Hawks play Richmond (W) and Essendon (?). Which puts them on 9 wins and 1 maybe.

Port are no chance unless they beat the Lions this week. It looks almost certain to come down to who wins out of the Bombers and Hawks in the last round.

For the top 4:

Collingwood play Sydney (W) and Bulldogs (?), which puts them on 15 wins and 1 “maybe” – safe for third.

Bulldogs plays Geelong (?) and Collingwood (?), which puts them on 13 wins and 2 “maybes”.

Carlton plays Melbourne (W) and the Crows (?), which puts them on 13 wins and 1 “maybe”

Crows play the Eagles (W) and Carlton (?), which puts them on 13 wins and 1 “maybe”.

Brisbane plays Port (W) and Sydney (W), which puts them on 13 1/2 wins.

The Pies are safe for third, my prediction is that fourth will come down to the Carlton-Crows game - whoever wins that will come fourth, whoever loses will come or 7th, and Brisbane to finish 5th, and the Bulldogs, 6th. (Though it all gets mucked up if the Bulldogs win either of their matches.)

	Rank	LW	Team	Record	Comment
Safe
	1	1↔	St Kilda	19-1	Riewoldt had the chance to keep the unbeaten streak alive and his kicked wasn’t even close.
	2	2↔	Geelong	17-3	They weren’t great, but they won’t lose many games when Ablett get 44 touches.
	3	3↔	Collingwood	14-6	Beating the Tigers means nothing.
	4	4↔	Adelaide	12-8	After quarter time the Crows kicked 12.14 to the Hawks 4.10.
	5	5↔	Bulldogs	13-7	Lions fans booing Ackermanis obviously learned nothing from watching him being booed while playing for them for 12 years.
	6	7↑	Carlton	12-8	The Blues did it well, and now get to play the Demons coming off a win.
	7	6↓	Brisbane	11-1-8	A big loss that puts paid to their top 4 hopes.
Need	some	wins
	8	8↔	Essendon	9-1-10	A great win by the Bombers despite not kicking a goal in the last quarter.
	9	10↑	Hawthorn	8-12	After quarter time the Hawks only kicked 4 goals, and Buddy kicked all of them.
	10	9↓	Port Adelaide	9-11	Port blew their hopes of being the worst team ever to make the finals.
No	chance
	11	11↔	Sydney	8-12	Another close loss to a top team. The Swans will miss the finals, but things aren’t too dire in the harbour city
	12	12↔	West Coast	7-13	A good win at home – though the umpiring in the last quarter helped them at tad.
	13	14↔	North Melbourne	5-1-14	North get to be the first team to play the Saints coming off a loss.
	14	15↔	Fremantle	5-15	Fremantle showed Melbourne how a team really tanks.
	14	13↓	Richmond	5-1-14	The Tigers were a joke – on that performance they deserve to be relegated to the VFL.
	14	16↔	Melbourne	4-16	A weird feeling for the Demons fans, but with Carlton and the Saints to go, they should still get the priority pick.

Sport at its best

I have a dream. It’s a never going to happen unless I win lotto dream, but it’s still there. It’s actually a dream of both my wife and I. One day in the future, most likely after our girls have grown up, we spend a European Summer following the Golden League Athletic competition.

The Golden League is a series of 6 (sometimes one more) athletics meets held in various European cities. For certain events, if an athlete wins all 6 of the competitions they win $1m in Gold. The meets this year (and usually every year) were held in Berlin, Oslo, Rome, Paris, Zurich and Brussels from mid June to the start of September. Travelling around Europe for a couple months, watching the greatest athletes in the world: pure bliss.

Now I love athletics. Really love it, love it in fact more than any other sport. Now for example I love AFL, but I have never gone to watch a match in which my team (the Adelaide Crows) was not playing (as I write this, Collingwood is belting Richmond on the TV, but I feel no desire to settle down and watch; though admittedly I will often watch non-Crows matches on TV). I also love cricket, but even though I have Foxtel I never bother to watch a test match that doesn’t feature Australia. I did watch some of the Indian Twenty20 comp, but it was a mere curiosity. I think baseball is a great sport – my wife gave me the Ken Burns documentary series a couple years ago and I could watch the DVDs again and again – but unless the Yankees are playing, I can’t be bothered.

But athletics? It doesn’t matter who is competing. I have gone to watch the local Telstra Grand Prix Competitions even though no one really of much note has been competing. I enjoy seeing some young up and comers come on up.  I just love everything about the sport and just revel in the delight of seeing athletes competing (at this point it is probably no surprise to discover I was a bit of a runner in my younger days).

But the Golden League is something else; not just good athletes, but the greatest in the world.

One of the best moments of my life was in 2000 when on the night of the 28th of September, my wife and I were in the stands watching the athletics session at the Sydney Olympics. On offer that night was the Men’s Long Jump Final, the Men’s and Women’s 200m Finals, the last events of the Decathlon,and the Women’s High Jump preliminaries (there were a few others but I have to admit they escape me at the moment). It was the night, Australian Jai Taurima duelled with the great  Ivan Pedroso in the long jump. The final featured two Australians (Peter Burges was the other), and the crowd of well over 100,000 was screaming and stomping for each of them as they did their jumps. After three rounds Tourima was first, Pedroso second, Burges was sixth (where he would finish). Tourima and Pedroso had both jumped 8.34m, but Torima was in the lead on a count back (his second best jump was better).

In the fourth round Pedroso jumped 8.41m to take the lead; Tourima, jumping last, jumped 8.40m. In the 5th round Pedroso fouled, and then Tourima uncorked an Australian record of 8.49m. At this point the noise generated by the crowd was as loud as any I’ve ever heard – and it was all for one person. In the last round the crowd cheered for Pedroso – clapped as he began his run-up and then all 100,000 let out an “oh” when the scoreboard flashed up his jump – 8.55m. The crowd, try as it might, could not lift Tourima one last time, and his last jump of 8.28m was not enough.

It was an amazing contest, and one of the few times that an Australian was in contention in the athletics. In the weeks after a number of people thought we were lucky that the long jump was on the night that we picked. I told them that actually I had picked the night because I knew the long jump was featured. As an athletics nut I had watched the World Athletics Championships in 1999 at Seville and seen Toruima come 4th, another Australian Shane Hair came 5th, and I knew that Australian record holder Peter Burges, who was injured was also a chance. So when I studied the ballot for tickets, I made the night with the men’s long jump my number one preference, figuring there was a good chance an Aussie would be in the final. But I didn’t think it would be as good as it was.

A couple nights later we were back in the stadium and saw the men’s 800m final, where my favourite 800m runner of all time, Wilson Kipketer, came second in a pathetically slow final. I was shattered. I was also in ecstasy that I had just seen an Olympic 800m final.

All this is a long round about way of pointing out the World Athletics Championships start tonight in Berlin . It’s a great event – in some ways better than the Olympics. One of the main reasons it’s better is that because it is not the Olympics Channel 7 isn’t broadcasting, instead it’s on SBS. And SBS, because they have an odd belief that people like to see sport live, do sport better than anyone else.

This year, once again the men’s long jump is one of the best chances for Australian success – Mitchell Watt and Fabrice Lapierre are in the top 10 for the year – Lapierre is ranked 3rd. Also to watch of course is the pole vault with Olympic Champion Steve Hooker – he has won every competition but one since then. My big hope is Sally McLellan in the 100m Hurdles. She is ranked 2nd in the world and has been running brilliantly of late. The final is on Wednesday night (about 5:15am on Thursday morning in Australia), and while I’ve got the timer all set on the DVD recorder, I think I’ll make the effort and get up for that one.

But that’s just the Aussies we’ve also got Usain Bolt versus Tyson Gaye in the 100m; Wariner versus Brown in the 400m; Blanka Vlasic in the high jump; Isinbaeva in the pole vault, Galkina in the steeplechase. Ah me, what bliss!

Coming Soon: Daybreakers

Following my previous post on the brilliant 6 months ahead for Australian movies, I shamefully neglected to include Daybreakers. A film written and directed by Australian brothers Michael and Peter Spierg.

It is set in 2019, in a world were most of the population are vampires, and a steady decline in human numbers is also meaning a decline in the blood supply. It is definitely more in the action/thriller/horror vampire genre than your cutesy Twilight style vampire tales

It stars Sam Neil, Ethan Hawke, Willem Defoe, Claudia Karvan, and it looks absolutely amazing.

This is a film for anyone you know who says they hate Australian films. It reportedly cost $21m to make, but it looks like it cost $60m. It's due to be released in early January in the US and on the Australia Day weekend here.

I have big hopes for this film - the buzz on fanboy sites like Ain't it Cool News is very strong.

The trailer is one of the best I've ever seen for an Aussie film (great use of a cover of "Running Up that Hill" by Placebo).

The brothers next project is to do a remake of the Errol Flynn film Captain Blood. Reportedly it is to be set in space. I'm not sure about that, but this film I do know - it's got hit written all over it.

On the QT: How Many MPs Does it Take to Change a Light Bulb?

Today was the first Question Time after the long winter break. The anticipation was palpable. Twitter was working itself into a frenzy, as were The Punch and Crikey as they did duelling live Question Time blogs. The three condolence motions prior to the start of proceedings only served to raise the tension to higher and higher levels. And then it began, and lo all around thought, geez, what a bloody bore.

Look I know Question Time is meant to be about serious issues, and that MPs are not there to entertain us, but hell it was hard going. Blame can be thrown around on both sides. The Liberal Party today demonstrated how damaging a weak opposition is to good government. The Government's Emissions Trading System is not without flaws but, given the shambles that the Coalition finds itself in, the Government will never really be held to account on them. This also leads to dull Question Time, especially when the Opposition decides to ask Kevin Rudd every single question on the issue of the ETS, and they end every single question with a line about the Frontier Economic modelling that LIberal Party Malcolm Turnbull (and Nick Xenaphon) commissioned was “greener, cheaper and smarter” and that the Government’s ETS was “flawed”.

So green, so cheap, so smart did they say the proposed economic modelling by Frontier Economics was that one couldn’t help wonder why the Opposition weren’t actually adopting it as policy. Kevin Rudd certainly was, because every single answer he gave on the issue referred to the policy being a “non-proposal” or a “non-policy”. It was far too easy.

And when things get far too easy for the PM, he goes into (as Annabel Crabb calls it) Power Point mode. He talks and recites and proposes and figures and datamizes and progomatic specificitizes, at which point he completely forgets to use grammar in his sentences and metaphors become but mere bits of Play-Doh for him to mould and mix into a multi-coloured ball that is neither useable nor so bad it can be thrown away.

He  took delight in referring to Turnbull’s ETS model as a magic pudding – something that you could put more carbon in and yet less emissions would come out. Upon finding that this sounded good coming from his lips he got far too excited and called it an unreconstructed magic pudding of a policy. At this point he then recalled one of his favourite expressions – “rolled gold” –  which unaccountably and  promptly found its way into the pudding mix and thus we had the Liberal Party delivering a rolled-gold, unreconstructed magic pudding, which suggests at the very least a certain amount of difficulty for voters to swallow, and most likely a shirt load of Ford Pills after the fact to move that baby through the system.

Half way through Rudd’s second answer (a Dorothy Dixer on terrorism) the storm that had been hitting Canberra at the time made its presence felt in the chamber. The lights went out from a power failure and levity ensued. Like a group of Grade 5s the MPs in the House roared and laughed at this novel thing of electricity not working. It also allowed an opportunity for many of those there, such as Peter Dutton, to display a complete absence of wit - “Forgot to pay the Bill did you Kevin/Swannie?” was heard in numerous versions, which made one think of the quality of humour more usually associated with a particularly bad best man speech. To be honest Rudd didn’t do much better when he continued speaking – using a pretty tortured analogy about darkness in the Liberal Party or some such.

After that the tone got no brighter. Surprisingly, Andrew Robb and not Turnbull asked the second question (causing Julia Gillard to mischievously suggest he was “getting some practice in” in reference to the laughable rumours that he is a candidate to take over the leadership). His question again ended with the “cheaper, greener, smarter” – or was it “greener, smarter, cheaper” – one gets confused), and the Government's “flawed ETS”. So easy was his question that Rudd went into Dorothy Dixer mode and talked and recited and proposed and figured and…  

When Joe Hockey got up to ask his question, he seemed to be suffering from the effort of climbing Mt Kilimanjaro in the recess and almost fell asleep while standing at the Dispatch Box. What came through from his mumbled sleepy voice was why the Government wouldn’t adopt the Turnbull ETS model; to which Rudd essentially replied, why should I – you haven’t. From then on the Opposition's questions  became more and more pointless – asking Rudd how much the cost of a litre of milk would rise under the ETS, or how much the the price of bus fares would rise.

Rudd dealt with these by not bothering to answer and instead had fun talking about Liberal Party disunity. And while, yes it was humorous in parts (such as the mention of the “gratifying grunt of approval” in the Liberal Party room to Turnbull’s ETS), it lacked any real venom because there was no risk, no danger for Rudd, no need to go on the attack. It was like watching a tennis player serve out the match with the score line reading 6-0, 6-1, 5-0. At such point the greatest shot ever seen will elicit barely an applause as the crowd just hope the match (and the opponent) will be put out of its misery.

So it was for Question Time today. It was murder for all watching, and given the way the session started, it would have only been fitting for the PM to have ended with another condolence motion for those poor fools who had decided to tune in.

Newspoll: ALP 57 – LNP 43 (or just another wipe-out predicted, how boring)

Well sigh. Today's Newspoll stayed the same on 2 Part Preferred terms. How boring. Yet another poll predicting an ALP slaughtering of the Lib/Nats. Dullsville.

That a 57-43 results is not headline news anymore is a pretty good indication of where things are at for the Opposition. Things are dire; and I'm talking Crackerjack Bowling Club levels of dire.

At least there was some movement in the Satisfaction ratings of Turnbull. Not positive movements, but at least they weren't dull. His Satisfaction rating went from 33% to 26%. His Dissatisfaction rating went up from 50% to 57%, to give him a net rating of minus 31. Rudd on the other hand has a net rating of 48% - putting him 79 points in front on that score. No other leader has made it to an election with such low ratings, let alone come close to winning one.

But props to Greg Hunt for keeping his chin up, though going on ABC TV and suggesting that the poll was “positive”, and that “under the circumstances it is a very strong result.” was perhaps moving into the dangerously silly territory, but still, well done.

In the day's news, the Liberal-National Party Malcolm Turnbull-Nick Xenaphon Party released their Emission Trading System Policy Modelling. Amazingly Turnbull held a press conference to announce … err some economic modelling that err should be part of the debate… but is not anyone’s policy because err well look  errr that’s not the point … the point is that …

Astonishing really. A joke of a way to run a party. Just imagine if you were an MP of the Liberal Party and you see your leader announcing to the media a proposal on the most important economic issue facing the nation, and you realise you haven’t even had a say on it yet. Bet you’d feel real happy to realise you are now an MP for the Turnbull Party (especially as it seems now to be in coalition with Nick Xenaphon).

Look Turnbull and Co claim they can achieve more cuts in emissions for a lot less cost. They do this buy predicting they’ll be able to buy a lot more carbon permits from overseas than the Government's plan does, and by assuming a lower price of carbon than everyone expects to have to pay.

It’s all a bit of a pea and thimble trick – we’ll reduce emissions by ensuring no one has any incentive to stop reducing their emissions. Think about it, under this scheme Turnbull suggests the price of the average electricity bill to rise by $8 a year. Would that change your behaviour in any way? Both sides – the ALP is guilty of this as well – need to face up to the fact that if you want people to stop using carbon-dirty energy, then the price will have to go up – just like you try to get people to stop smoking by upping the price of cigarettes. No price pain; no emissions change. Sorry wish it weren’t so.

But in political terms this policy (or whatever it is) by Turnbull is a waste of paper and space. Why would the Government consider negotiating with him on this? The Liberal Party hasn’t even adopted it as its policy – so there’s no guarantee Turnbull can even say to the Govt, “adopt this policy and my side will all vote for it”. The National Party sure as hell don't support it – which was obvious by the absence from today’s press conference of Warren Truss. Turnbull himself started doing an impression of Shirty the Slightly Aggressive Bear whenever any journo dared ask him a question about why this wasn’t actually a policy, or where was Truss, or what about that Godwin Grech? It was as if he couldn’t believe those assembled hadn’t forgotten about his past week in light of him solving the entire climate change problem.

Look, Penny Wong can be as shifty-political on this issue as anyone, but she does have one very good point – until Turnbull comes to the table with a document that is supported by his party, anything he says is just whistling in the wind.

And with a Satisfaction rating of 26% and a Preferred PM rating of 17%, he doesn’t have a very loud whistle.

Oz Idol... sigh haven't we run out of talent yet??

Tonight a new series of Australian Idol starts. As is often the case with such shows, my interest has been on a steady wane since Series One. I expect this will be the case for MasterChef as well - while the next series of it will be almost as popular as the first, when it comes to looking back in 5 years time, I'm guessing it'll be the first one that resonates the most.

The first Oz Idol was a massive cultural event that took everyone a bit by surprise - not the least me. I had no interest in watching pop wannabes. I'd hated "Popstars". I mean really hated it. Every single season I hated it more. And so I expected Idol to be no different. And yet it was. For some reason I started watching, and then kept watching. And yeah I know it's all a bit facile - a glorified karaoke contest, but when it is good, it is well beyond that. Watching Idol I think allows you to indulge in the fantasy of being a record company exec (without the stress of wondering what to do about all the pirated downloads).

In the first season, Cosima De Vito belted out a cover of Cold Chisel's "When the War is Over", and I remember thinking someone somewhere should be signing her up to put that out as a single right now. And indeed it was released and it went number 1, and I was able to think, gee I sure know how to pick them.

I also thought this Rob Mills bloke is a complete idiot. Though that may have been a rather easier thing to pick.

The format is thus great for the teen girls who want to write the performer's name on their pencil case, and for those of us a tad older who want to pretend we have an ear for music.

The main reason that the first season of such shows as this are the ones that seem to be the most remembered is because if they are no good, there is generally no second series. And such shows need a defining moment. In Masterchef for example it was the moment that Julie stayed in the contest despite serving up a "puddle pie" - because it was the moment we all knew the fix was in.

In Season 1 of Oz Idol the big moment came in the Top 3 week. Guy Sebastian, having ripped out a great version of Frankie Valli's "Can't Take My Eyes Off of You", came on and did a rework of The Sound of Music standard "Climb Every Mountain". After hearing it you knew that (a) he was going to win the whole thing, and (b) this was a real singing contest for artists - not mere cover singers.

As the years have passed, I've gotten more cynical about Idol; I hardly watched last year's version. And while some will say Anthony Callea belting out "The Prayer" or Damien Leith doing another version of "Nessun Dorma" (a song that should be banned from being sung in any reality/singing show) were big highlights, for me the peak of Idol will always be Guy Sebastian letting rip the high notes (and Marcia Hines getting all excited afterwards!).

AFL Power List: Round 19 (or does anyone actually want to finish 8th?)

Well Essendon and Lions draw, the Bulldogs lose, so does Geelong, and then Port. So much for it all being nice and orderly. The Pies’ win over the Crows nearly got them bumped up to 2nd, but to be honest, the game was there for the Crows to win, and they kicked it away, so I’ll keep Collingwood at third.

But really, I’ve got no idea what’s going on (obviously – Taylor Walker finally gets a game for the Crows, and he has a shocker), but let’s break it down: 

For the last spot in the Top 8:

Port plays Carlton (?), Brisbane (L), North (W), which puts them on 10 wins and 1 “maybe”.

Essendon play the Saints (L), Fremantle (W), Hawks (?), which puts them on 9 1/2 wins and 1 “maybe”.

Sydney play Geelong (L), Collingwood (L), Brisbane (L), which leaves them on 8 wins.

Hawks play the Crows (L), Richmond (W), Essendon (?). Which puts them on 9 wins and 1 maybe.

Port are completely useless, Essendon have forgotten how to win, Sydney are dreaming, and the Hawks are a basket case. Does it really matter anymore who gets there?

For the top 4:

Collingwood play Richmond (W), Sydney (W), Bulldogs (?), which puts them on 15 wins and 1 “maybe” – safe for third.

Bulldogs plays Brisbane (?), Geelong (?), Collingwood (?), which puts them on 12 wins and 3 “maybes”.

Brisbane the Bulldogs (?), Port (W), Sydney (W), which puts them on 13 1/2 wins and 1 “maybe”.

Carlton plays Port (?), Melbourne (W), Crows (?), which puts them on 12 wins and 2 “maybes”

Crows play the Hawks (W), Eagles (W), Carlton (?), which puts them on 13 wins and 1 “maybe”.

The Pies are safe for third, the Crows really needed the Lions to lose; a draw did them no favours. At this point I think the Lions will finish 4th, the Crows 5th, Bulldogs 6th, Carlton 7th. 

That would mean the first week of the final would be Saints-Lions; Cats-Pies; Crows-Port; Bulldogs-Carlton.

Though I am sure all that will change by this time next week.

	Rank	LW	Team	Record	Comment
Safe
	1	1↔	St Kilda	19-0	Even with half their side out, they were twice as good as the Hawks.
	2	2↔	Geelong	16-3	After threatening to do so over the past month, the Cats finally lost, and seem to be in a lull. A lot of teams would fancy beating them now.
	3	3↔	Collingwood	13-6	I think the score line flattered the Pies, but let’s be honest, so long as Collingwood don’t win the flag, most people will be happy.
	4	5↑	Adelaide	11-8	The Crows wasted almost every opportunity they had to beat Collingwood. A costly loss. Must beat the Hawks this week, or forget the rest of the year.
	5	4↓	Bulldogs	12-7	How quickly the season can go pear-shaped. That loss will have cost the Bulldogs a top 4 spot.
	6	6↔	Brisbane	11-1-7	Well they did well to come back, and the draw; whoever loses out of them and the Bulldogs this week will miss out on 4th.
	7	7↔	Carlton	11-8	No idea about how to tip Carlton, but as they meet Melbourne in a couple weeks, they’re definitely in the finals
Need	some	wins
	8	10↑	Essendon	8-1-10	The Bombers should have won, but now at least they don’t have to worry about percentage.
	9	8↓	Port Adelaide	9-10	Being a Port supporter this year is not something you’d wish on your worst enemy (which is usually what Port supporters are).
	10	9↓	Hawthorn	8-11	The Saints did all they could to give the Hawks a leg up but they were found to be completely legless.
No	chance
	11	11↔	Sydney	8-11	Sydney keep their mathematical hopes alive for another week.
	12	13↑	West Coast	6-13	The Eagles did some damage to the top of the Premiership table, and have demonstrated that wining sure beats the hell out of being accused of tanking.
	13	12↓	Richmond	5-13-1	The Tigers will do well not to be lapped by Collingwood this week.
	14	14↔	North Melbourne	5-13-1	In the traditional Melbourne derby, North beat the City team by… nah I didn’t care either.
	15	15↔	Fremantle	5-14	With Melbourne and Essendon still to be played, the Dockers could finish on a sort of respectable 7 wins.
	16	16↔	Melbourne	3-16	Great tanking by Melbourne. Kudos all round. Kudos.