AFL Power Rankings: Round 12 (or let’s sort out some chaff)

With half the season over, it’s time to sort through the 16 teams and see who’s where.

By my reckoning five teams should feel pretty sure they’ll play in the finals, three that look safeish – mostly because of good percentages, and four more are on the precipice (the other four can start thinking about the footy trip at the end of the year).

Next week is the split round, so there won’t be a power ranking till the 28th (keep your applause to a minimum, please)

	Rank	LW	Team	Record	Comment
Safe
	1	1↔	Geelong	10-2	Boom! Anyone thinking the Cats are not hungry for two in a row better get used to being wrong.
	2	4↑	St Kilda	9-3	A strong win in the west. The Saints look to have regained balance. The GF replay against Geelong after the break will see how sure that balance is.
	3	2↓	Collingwood	8-3-1	They drew a game in which they kicked 9.22 and had 10 more scoring shots than the Demons. Sydney, Eagles and Port give them a relatively easy start tot he second half, before hitting the Saints.
Should	get	to	September
	4	6↑	Hawthorn	6-6	Five in a row and doing fine. After the break the real season begins – Bombers, Bulldogs, Cats and Lions. We’ll know plenty after that.
	5	7↑	Bulldogs	7-5	In the classic 8 point game the Bulldogs did it in style. Eagles, Hawks, Carlton and Port after the break should see them at worst on 9-7.
Percentage	will	be	a	help
	6	3↓	Carlton	7-5	Carlton continue their inconsistent year with a loss in a game they should have won. They’ll need to win these type of games in the 2nd half if they want to finish top 4 – Freo, Lions, Bulldogs and Swans up next. Win three or forget the top 4.
	7	5↓	Fremantle	8-4	Two losses in a row, but this was the bigger reality check. Still look finals bound, but the top 4 is a bigger question. Carlton, Port, Richmond and Melbourne should give them a chance to start he second half with some wins.
	8	10↑	Sydney	7-5	A very good win that give the Swans some momentum. After the break: Pies, Tigers, Roos and Blues. The later two games will be the big indicators.
Can’t	afford	any	stuff	ups
	9	8↓	Essendon	5-7	For a half they looked around about the mark, but then they were put to the sword. After the break they have Hawks, Crows and Demons. Will need to win at least two.
	10	11↑	North Melbourne	6-6	A huge win for the Roos, that keeps them in the picture. The next three of Port, Geelong and Sydney will be all good tests for how they’ll end up.
	11	9↓	Brisbane	5-7	A bad loss – and one that casts a huge pall on their finals chances. Richmond, Carlton, Saints and Hawks offer a superb test. Win at least three, or forget it.
	12	14↑	Melbourne	4-7-1	A tough result for the second time this year against the Pies – though at least they got 2 points. Now they don’t need to worry about percentage, but they need some wins. Crows at AAMI, Saints, Essendon and Freo (at Subiaco) doesn’t suggest an easy start to the second half.
Not	a	chance	in	hell
	13	12↓	Port Adelaide	5-7	Five in a row and looking lousy. From 5-2 to 5-7. And with the Roos, Fremantle, Pies and Bulldogs up next, things are not looking to improve.
	14	13↓	Adelaide	3-9	Not good enough. Haven’t been all year, but now it is officially over. Demons, Essendon, Eagles and Cats up next. It could get ugly (Socceroos v Germany ugly).
	15	16↑	Richmond	2-10	Yeah it was against the Eagles in Melbourne, but it was still a great win, and Jack Reiwoldt at pick number 13 is looking the steal of the 2006 draft.
	16	15↓	West Coast	3-9	Hmm. The Eagles look a long way from the finals – at least 2 years away. They start the second half with the Bulldogs, Pies, Crows and Essendon. The Crows game will be the only one of interest – if only to see who may challenge for the wooden spoon.