AFL Power Ranking: Round 11 (or almost half way through; still none the wiser)

I think it’s pretty clear that Geelong will play in the Grand Final. But who is most likely to be their opponent? Who will make the finals?

Back after Round 2 I wrote that Melbourne, Adelaide, North,  Richmond, West Coast were no chance and that Essendon and Port were unlikely. Of those seven I’ll move North in to the unlikely category, but really no one is in the “will play in the finals” list. The problem is with seven teams on either 5 or 6 wins, it is still very much up for grabs. The top 5 look safe (though Freo wouldn’t want its match against Adelaide to be an arbiter of things to come).

But then you have 3 spots and seven teams on 5 or 6 wins fighting to get it.

With just over half the season still to go, there’s still a long way to go before we find out which three will make it – at this stage it’s hard to even pick the favourites.

	Rank	LW	Team	Record	Comment
	1	1↔	Geelong	9-2	Look it wasn’t great, but a win in Perth is still something you take and then grab your boarding pass and fly home content. They face the unpredictable Essendon before getting a week off to prepare for the GF replay.
	2	2↔	Collingwood	8-3	A big win by the Pies, though it was not exactly a definitive statement. Now they face a slumping Melbourne before the always tricky match against the Swans after the break.
	3	4↑	Carlton	7-4	A dominating performance by the Blues. They now have North and Freo to go before the break.
	4	5↑	St Kilda	8-3	A pretty easy win for the Saints (it was against Richmond after all). Now they travel West to face a Dockers side revved up after a bad game.
	5	3↓	Fremantle	8-3	Well now, that wasn’t meant to happen. The Dockers hit a big Crow’s speed hump. Their next two games of the Saints and Carlton are massive tests.
	6	7↑	Hawthorn	5-6	The Hawks keep the bandwagon going. Now they have to beat a Crows team who probably think they’re back on track.
	7	6↓	Bulldogs	6-5	The Bulldogs played 1 quarter of footy against the Pies, and came up 2 goals short. A must win if there ever was against the Lions this week. This side was not meant to be 6-6 at the halfway stage…
	8	8↔	Essendon	5-6	A tough loss, in tough conditions. The Bombers now face the Cats, and then a desperate Hawks.
	9	9↔	Brisbane	5-6	Hmm. I give up trying to tip this mob. They play the Bulldogs this week in stereotypical 8 point game. Must win.
	10	11↓	Sydney	6-5	The Swans got up in a great game against the Bombers – which keeps them in positive territory.They face Port before the week break to get ready for the annual Collingwood money spinner.
	11	13↑	North Melbourne	5-6	They nearly blew a 6 goals half time lead. They have Carlton and Port before the break. Lose both, and the chances of finals will start to slip.
	12	10↓	Port Adelaide	5-6	That’s 4 losses in a row now for Port. Lose against Sydney this week and it’ll officially time to start to panic.
	13	14↑	Adelaide	3-8	Finally! The Crows played Freo in the manner we all expected them to play in Round 1. They face the Hawks in Tassie to find out which team can officially forget about 2010.
	14	12↓	Melbourne	4-7	The Demons certainly have had the gloss knocked off them. Collingwood on the annual Queen’s Birthday money spinner might give a good indicator of what to expect in the 2nd half of the season.
	15	15↔	West Coast	3-8	Hey they were honest –they even got the lead a few times. But no one really thought they would win. Must beat the Tigers this week. But it’s no certainty.
	16	16↔	Richmond	1-10	Riewoldt is a star, this much we know. But is there anyone else to help him out?