As 2010 began the Crows’ supporters would have been thinking that this year could be something special – the young kids were a year older and the old guys were ready for one last roar. The Fremantle supporters on the other hand would have been hoping that this year wouldn’t be yet another “rebuilding” year.
Now just two weeks in to the season the Crows are terrible and will be lucky to win a game; Fremantle are playing like they think they’re a good chance to make the eight.
A season can unravel so quickly, and likewise expectations can be altered in just two weeks.
Of the sides out of the current top eight, I can only see Sydney and the Bulldogs being a chance to make the finals. Melbourne, Adelaide, North and Richmond won’t get there (even if the Crows start to win – which I don’t see happening – their percentage will mean they will have to win one more game than another team just to make the finals). West Coast couldn’t beat Port at home, so you won’t figure that they will get enough wins.
Essendon were always likely to be the team to go backwards from last year, and they play Carlton, Collingwood and Hawthorn in the next 4 weeks which could see them at 1-5 after 6 rounds.
Port have beaten two easy teams (though a win in Perth always has some value). If they trouble the Lions this week I’ll include them in the conversation, but for now I think they’re out of it.
Which (including Port) leaves ten teams that I think can make the finals.
Sport of course never follows such straight forward predictions (after all I never pick 8 wins a week), but if any of the above 6 teams makes the finals, their form will have to make a massive turnaround, and they will need to overcome awful percentages.
A couple huge games this week – Saints-Pies, and Bulldogs-Hawks. And if Fremantle beats Geelong at Subiaco this week, the Dockers’ bandwagon will be well and truly firing up.