Patient Zero: Finding out who caused the Global Financial Crisis

If there's one thing wrong with the Global Financial Crisis it is the lack of a good bad guy; someone everyone can focus their blame on. A patsy if you will. If the GFC were a disease, we would be searching for patient zero - the first carrier; and to be honest, the media really have dropped the ball here.

Some "lefty" commentators have sought to blame the CEOs of investment banks, such as Merrill Lynch's John Thain (why wouldn't he deserve a $10m bonus?), or even the US Government (especially that superlative President George Bush). But really do you understand what went wrong? Mortgage back securities? Derivatives? Currency exchange swaps? Sounds like journalistic gobbledygook to me, and let's be honest when it come to finding a good easy-to-blame patsy, invoking economic theory ain't gonna do it. The main problem is such arguments focus on "what" caused the GFC. "What!?" Who cares about "What"? You think you can stick a "what" on a wanted poster? Nope, that dog won't hunt; we need a "who".

So let's work it through CSI style.

Australians at the moment are losing jobs because,
Chinese companies don't want to buy so much of our iron ore because,
American stores aren't buying as much of the stuff that gets made in China out of our iron ore because,
Americans have not been buying as much of the stuff from the American stores that gets made in China out of our iron ore because,
Americans have been losing their jobs because,
Americans have not been buying as much of the stuff from the American stores that gets made in China out of our iron ore because,
Americans' loans have been too big to allow them to buy the stuff from the American stores that gets made in China out of our iron ore because,
American banks have been giving out bad loans to Americans who work in stores that sell stuff to Americans that gets made in China out of our iron ore because,
The American Government looked the other way while the banks gave out bad loans to Americans who work in the stores selling the stuff that is made in China out of our iron ore.

So there you go. Now as I said most "lefty", "tree-hugger", "kumbaya-round-the-campfire" type of commentators have been looking at the US Government - say former President Bush and asked why he looked the other way while the banks gave out these bad loans. Or other pinko-probably-had-pictures-of-Che-Guevara-on-their-university-dorm-room-wall types blame the American banks for giving out the bad loans and bundling them up as "mortgage securities" and calling it risk management.

But c'mon it doesn't take an Andrew Bolt or Janet Albrechtsen to see that there was nothing wrong with the loans so long as the mortgage holder tightened his or her belt, kept his or her job, and went without those "luxury" items the lower classes always seem to be buying. You know what I'm talking about. Stuff like clothes and food. Yep. Greed, plain and simple. Just another case of them trying to get above their station. You know it, I know it, heck, John Thain sure as hell knows it.

And remember as well, up until the arse fell out of the world last year, things weren't too bad. OK unemployment was rising in America, but let's be honest only those not up to scratch would have been getting the sack. So why shouldn't banks give out the loans?

And it's not like the debt crisis just happened. Things like this, don't just happen. World War Two didn't just "happen". There had to be one loan that tipped the scales. One final mortgage that just didn't get repaid that caused say Lehmann Brothers (that great, bold bastion of all that is good about capitalism) to go bankrupt.

All we have to do is find the person who stopped repaying the loan that was this final straw.

Now the "lefties" (those Rudd-loving, Julia Gillard is the greatest types) would want to find the boss who sacked this guy who had the loan that required about 60% of his income to repay. Tut, tut, tut I say. Times were good last year (well not 'good', but let's not quibble over statistics like unemplyoment rates or anything); so long as you were prepared to do an honest day's work for a dishonest day's pay you would have nothing to worry about.

Now obviously this guy was American. And I'm going to say he lived in Scranton, Pennsylvania, because during the VP Debates Joe Biden went on and on about how life was tough growing up in Scranton, Pennsylvania, so I'm thinking given Biden is a left-wing Democrat, no doubt the town is full of like minded dead-beats who think they deserve to own a home even though they don't work in an office, or didn't go to university.

I'm betting he has three kids, a wife who works part time at the local A&P (I have no idea if Scranton has an A&P , but they get mentioned a lot in American films set in the suburbs, so I'm guessing she works at one). I'm also betting they live on West 64 Street (I don't know if Scranton has a West 64 Street, but American movies are always talking about streets with numbers and points of the compass so I think it's a good chance). No doubt he (let's call him Bob) worked at the local mill (I don't know if Scranton has a mill, or what actually gets done at a mill, but Bob would've worked there).

The problem though I'm betting was that Bob didn't work very well at the mill. No doubt he was late to work once or twice (well maybe not, but hey, there's no need to bring in the truth at this point). Heck he probably had to go do some service in Iraq because like a fool he joined the national guard because he felt kinda patriotic.

Whatever Bob, talk to the hand, cos I ain't listening. Times are tough (for slackers anyway), and so you're gone. Hit the bricks, here's your severance pay - try not to blow it all on 'luxuries' (c'mon you know what I'm talking about).

And so there you have it; Bob Jackson (yep Bob Jackson sounds like a good blue collar doesn't want to pay his bills kinda name) goes along to his local bank, says he can't pay his loan which means Lehmann Brothers (that great big, bold bastion of all that is good about capitalism) which has bought a percentage of the loan as part of a high-interest (supposedly low-risk) derivative goes under, and as sure as the knee bone is connected to the thigh bone, Australians start losing their jobs.

So there you have it world: Bob Jackson of 28 West 64 Street, Scranton, Pennsylvania is responsible for the whole Global Financial Crisis.

Whew! Glad we got that sorted out. Problem solved. Now, let me just get back to working on that Middle-East thing...

The Changing Tastes in Movies, or the Change in Movies?

When writing about the nominations for this year's Best Picture Oscar, I wrote about how there seems to be a lack of adult dramas that Hollywood used to do well; instead everything seems to be more targeted towards teens - comic book movies etc.

I decided to have a look at the breakdown of films over the last 20 odd years to see if anything stands out.

Box Office mojo breakdown the films released in the USA according to their rating - G, PG, PG-13, R and NC-17. Now NC-17 doesn't really count because so few get released with that rating (basically because many theatres refuse to show those films), so I won't both with that.

The USA rating of R is equivalent to the Australian M or MA ratings. The PG-13 is what it says "PARENTS STRONGLY CAUTIONED—Some material may be inappropriate for children under 13". So PG is actually less adult than PG-13. The PG-13 came in in 1984 when the gap between PG and R seemed to be getting too wide.

So here's the breakdown of the 4 ratings. In each graph the Blue Line shows the percentage of movies in that year that were released with that rating. The red line shows the percent of the year's box office receipts accounted for by that rating.

Here's G Rating:

It only accounts for between around 2 and 6.5% of all movies released each year. Not a lot has changed - some years a few more, some years a few less. Generally as well the movies account for a slightly higher percentage of the box office

When we look at the PG rated films however, we do see a distinct pattern. From accounting for 20-25% of all films released in the USA in the late 1980s, to over the last decade accounting for only around 10-15%. In terms of box office, the red line is very similar to the blue line - but as with the G rated films, again the box office accounts for a greater percentage than the amount of films.



With the PG-13 Rated films though, we really start seeing a big change. The drop in PG rated (more kid friendly) films shown above is inversely replicated here. From accounting for 20-30% of all films release din the USA in the late 1980s, PG-13 films now account for around 35% of all films.

But the real difference is the amount of box office that these rated films account for. in the late 1980s the box office of PG-13 rated films was around the same as the amount of films. As the 1990s went on and into the 2000s there has been a boom in the box office receipts of PG-13 films.

Something has obviously happened. Not only are more of these films being made, they are becoming much, much more popular.

How have R rated - the more adult films fared? Not too well. The number of films with an R rating have not dropped all that much - basically they still account for around 50% of all films released in the USA. But check out the drop in popularity. From accounting for just over 51% in 1987 to a mere 20% last year. It's the only rating where box office is always lower than the number of films.


So why?

Well here's a list of the to eleven grossing PG-13 films last year:

1 The Dark Knight
2 Iron Man
3 Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
4 Hancock
5 Twilight
6 Quantum of Solace
7 Mamma Mia!
8 The Incredible Hulk
9 Get Smart
10 Four Christmases
11 The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Yep The Dark Knight, Iron Man and Quantum of Solace are OK for 13 year olds, in fact OK for any kid in reality - remember R means that anyone under 17 should be accompanied by an adult, meaning PG-13 don't need adults there at all, just a sense that parents have advised their kids...

Here's the top ten PG-13 films from 1990:

1 Ghost
2 Dances with Wolves
3 Kindergarten Cop
4 Days of Thunder
5 Bird on a Wire
6 Edward Scissorhands
7 Arachnophobia
8 Awakenings
9 Look Who's Talking Too
10 Young Guns II

A lot more family friendly don't you think? Here's the R rated films from 1990, how many do you think would now get a PG-13 rating?
1 Pretty Woman
2 Total Recall
3 Die Hard 2: Die Harder
4 Presumed Innocent
5 Another 48 HRS.
6 The Godfather Part III
7 Flatliners
8 Misery
9 Hard to Kill
10 Goodfellas

I'd say only Goodfellas, The Godfather Part III, Misery and possibly Another 48 Hours would be still R rated.

So is it people's tastes that have changed, or is it that what was popular then still is popular now, it's just that the lower end of the 1980s R rated are now getting PG-13 ratings?

Possibly, but note that the same number of R rated films are getting made. But they are not connecting with the audience like they used to. Perhaps the continual easing of what constitutes PG-13 has led to people viewing R rated films as being stronger in content and more "adult" than they were in the past?

To be honest I don't know if I have an answer, but any studio executive looking at these graphs would think only one thing - more PG-13 please, and less R.

OK maybe there will be the same number of R rated films, but the budgets will be less, the money spent on development for them will be less, the casts will be expected to take pay cuts, so better actors will do less of them (much better to do some easy money action stuff).

So this is good if you like comic books; bad if you like real drama.

Economic policy and the Opposition are strange bedfellows

Today in Crikey their Canberra correspondent Bernard Keane wrote an open letter to Malcolm Turnbull and Julie Bishop.

It's about the most sensible thing I've read this year (ok not a big call, but it'll take some beating). It certainly is the best opinion column I've read written by a member of the Canberra Press Gallery for some time. I recommend you giving it a read, but here are a few excerpts:

...in case you haven't noticed, just about every economist on the planet is calling for massive government spending to replace at least a small part of the huge gap in private demand left by the financial crisis. This spending will, at least for some Australians, mean the difference between having a job and not having a job. If we learned anything from the last recession it's that unemployment is a bastard of a problem to fix and pernicious in its effect on our social fabric.
...
But you seem determined to maintain the fiscal hairy-chestedness. As part of that, you like to maintain that when you were in Government, you were the height of fiscal responsibility.
That's complete bollocks and I'm sick of hearing it. The first two Howard Budgets were excellent.
...
But after that, you dropped the ball. Subsequent budgets got slacker and slacker, especially once the mining boom kicked in. After 2001, your budgets got downright bad as you shelled out money to buy votes. After 2004, you were shovelling money out the door so fast slow-moving people were getting buried under it.
...
You also completely abandoned the small government agenda. This was a profound betrayal, one that has left Australian with a legacy of middle class welfare and a handout mentality that will take years to undo -- if any politician has the guts to try to undo it.

This last point is especially true - consider the kerfuffle when Rudd decided to bring in a means test for the baby bonus, or the solar panels. Pretty much the default position at the moment accroding to the electorate is that for any scheme, incentives mean welfare for the middle class. Giving rebates for solar panels is all well and good, but there are better ways to make solar power economically attractive for households - a gross feed in tariff for one.

But as I say, give Keane's article a read; I pretty much could only add "ditto" to everything he writes.
***
Another good piece of opinion writing came via the always sensible Peter Martin. He links an article by 2008 Nobel Prize winner in Economics, Paul Krugman, which again provides some excellent reading, this time on the value of the Obama fiscal stimulus package (which has a bit of commonality with what Rudd and Co are trying to do).

A few excerpts:
...write off anyone who asserts that it’s always better to cut taxes than to increase government spending because taxpayers, not bureaucrats, are the best judges of how to spend their money.

Here’s how to think about this argument: it implies that we should shut down the air traffic control system. After all, that system is paid for with fees on air tickets — and surely it would be better to let the flying public keep its money rather than hand it over to government bureaucrats. If that would mean lots of midair collisions, hey, stuff happens.

The point is that nobody really believes that a dollar of tax cuts is always better than a dollar of public spending. Meanwhile, it’s clear that when it comes to economic stimulus, public spending provides much more bang for the buck than tax cuts — and therefore costs less per job created — because a large fraction of any tax cut will simply be saved.

This is some interesting advice, especially as it seems quite likely Rudd and Swan will bring in tax cuts earlier than they were planned. Personally I think it far better to concentrate on infrastructure projects, and bring in the tax cuts in the budget as planned - if people are saving their bonuses, they'll likely do the same with tax cuts, so let's let the government do some spending, and just make sure it's bloody good spending (I'm sure there are some roads and railways around the traps that could use a touch up, even if my long wished for Very Fast Train from Melbourne to Sydney won't happen).

Krugman goes on:
It’s true that the normal response to recessions is interest-rate cuts from the Fed, not government spending. And that might be the best option right now, if it were available. But it isn’t, because we’re in a situation not seen since the 1930s: the interest rates the Fed controls are already effectively at zero.

Now obviously in Australia, interest rates have a way to go down yet - and the odds at the moment are that there is a 96% chance the Reserve Bank will cuts rates by a full one percent when they meet on February 4th. That would make the cash rate 3.25%. Last time it was that low? Well have you heard of Robert Menzies? (so much for "interest rates will always be lower under a Liberal Government" I guess...).

So given that, I again think the Government should focus on infrastructure and let the interest rates do some work - admittedly low interest rates take longer to kick start the economy than high interest rates do to strangle it.

That said, with inflation now going down fast at least the Government doesn't have to worry about a fiscal boost causing prices to rise, but that doesn't mean they need to throw money around blindly.

***
Here's a different bit of opinion from Joe Hockey on the Government providing cover for commercial property lending:

"It should not be the Government that starts lending money to the next Christopher Skase or Alan Bond as is being suggested here,'' Mr Hockey told Fairfax Radio.
"Mark my words: this is going to be Tricontinental, Western Australia Inc, State Bank of Victoria all over again.''

This is known as the "let's see how much hyperbole I can fit into one statement" line of attack.

Hockey should calm down and stop acting like a clown. He may be right, but his attempts to criticise the Government by going way over the top is a bad way for the Opposition Finance spokesperson to act. It shows he's learned nothing from his constant over-working of "union bosses" in 2007.

Show some reason Joe, show some caution, and maybe you'll get some credibility. Heck next he'll be comparing the Government's fiscal stimulus to the Nazi's economic policies... oh wait, no that was John Montgomery in today's The Australian:

the New Deal was not a success: the recession was deep and lasted 10 years. It was the tooling up for World War II that ended the Great Depression, and the return of growth in the private sector. The New Deal actually made things worse because it delayed the recovery in the private sector. Similar policies were followed under national socialism in Germany: the building of autobahns, canals, dams, railways, airports, organic farming around the cities. Money was also pumped into the car industry.

I didn't think Godwin's Law could apply to economics, but apparently it does.
***
Look, anyone with any basic level of IQ knows the Rudd Government can't be blamed for the financial crisis, or for China's economy stalling (though some conservative commentators would love to blame it all on Gillard's IR policy!), but they do deserve to be judged on how they handle the crisis. Australia unfortunately is a bit of a cork on the ocean; the Government really can't steer where we go - the international economic tide has us in its grip; but the Government can at least make sure the cork doesn't disintegrate. And my belief is that government spending will keep the cork together better than lots of tax cuts.

However, I say once again - politics is a tennis match. Just as it doesn't matter if you make a stack of unforced errors, if your opponent plays worse you'll still win the game, it doesn't matter if Rudd stuffs up the economy, if the electorate thinks Turnbull will stuff it up worse Rudd will still win the next election.

And when Turnbull keeps coming out saying such garbage as this today it's still seems pretty obvious he'd do worse:

"We've offered to sit down with Mr Rudd so many times I couldn't tell you how many," he said.
"From the moment I became Opposition Leader we've sought to have a bipartisan approach to this.
"No way, he makes these decisions, ignores the Reserve Bank, doesn't consult with the Opposition."

Poor Malcolm, no one cares what he thinks, and he wonders why. Maybe he should read Keane's letter to find out.

U2's "Get on Your Boots" and dodgy radio tapes

I have been a U2 fan for longer than I have been a fan of any band. Each new album is always guaranteed to get me down to JB HiFi and opening up my wallet (most other bands will merely see me downloading a few odd songs off itunes).

Their newest single, "Get On Your Boots", was played last week on Irish and English radio, and also released for download through itunes.

It's already Number 14 on the Australian itunes top downloads.

It's a catchy rock number that took me about 2 listens before I was hooked, and I'm now all a shiver with anticipation for the album (No Line on the Horizon).

One thing that has excited me is that according to U2's Official site this single is track Number 6 in the track listing.

For the last two albums, the first single has been Track 1; and given U2's penchant for putting all the best songs on the album at the start, that this is number 6 makes me think there's a lot more good stuff to come (speaking obviously as a hard-core U2 fan who will brook no criticism... well not too much at any rate).

The last album U2 album from which the first single was so late in the album track listing was Achtung Baby, and that album is still my favourite of theirs, so my expectations are now pretty high (not that it will ever be as good because... well I'm not 19 anymore, and music never matters as much as it does at that age).

When the first single off Achtung Baby, "The Fly" was played on the Triple J breakfast show I was listening to it on my Walkman while on a bus on the way to university. I had been counting down the days. I have a sneaking suspicion they played it twice - they definitely played the B-side track, "Alex Descends into Hell for a bottle of Milk Korova" - don't worry I haven't listened to it since either.

This time it was a bit different. Yesterday I thought, "oh yeah, they were going to release a single... I wonder if it's on youtube." (it is).

On that day back in 1991, I also rang up SAFM and voted for the song to be on their top 8 at 8 (or whatever the nightly countdown was called), and when the song was played (at number 1) I was there blank tape at the ready so I could record it.

When the song finished, the DJ announced in a monotone voice "press pause on tape recorder now". Which I did. He knew, I knew, we all knew that every one was taping it, as indeed kids have for ever.

Rather interestingly, when "Get on Your Boots" was played on Radio 1 in England, during the song your hear a quick "Radio 1", and the DJ, Chris Moyles cuts in at the end a bit earlier than he needs to. Why? Well as he tells his fellow DJ "I like to do that because of all the little gits who like to record it and stick it on the internet". The other DJ responds: "Home taping is killing music".

Yep, all those kids taping the songs of their favourite bands off the radio has killed music, just as it did when I taped "The Fly" back in 1991, because of course everyone just tapes the songs off the radio instead of buying the freaking album.

Ok illegal downloads of the actual album and songs may be taking a bite out of artists' take home pay, but songs from the radio? Yep, and I never buy a DVD because I can just tape the movie onto my VCR when it plays on TV - those adverts actually enhance the viewing experience.

So here is the song played on Radio 1, from youtube, which I have here just to annoy sanctimonious git DJs:

A Song a Year: 1985, Man Overboard

In 1985, I got serious about music. Every month meant buying another copy of Countdown Magazine (infinitely superior to Smash Hits - though I bought that as well), and Take 40 on Saturday and Sunday mornings was a must see, and the Top 8 at 8 on the local AM station was a must listen.

Music meant so much to me that I wrote an essay for English about responding to Pat Boone's criticism of Duran Duran's "A View to a Kill" (apparently he thought it was satanic - you know the whole "dance into the fire" lyric). Now you have to be fairly well into music to get steamed up about Duran Duran, and I don't think I need to produce any further evidence to demonstrate the hold pop music had on my life.

It was also around this time that music started seeping into my subconscious. From this year my life began to have a soundtrack. I was on a bus in Perth going from the airport to an athletic competition (I was into athletics in high school) and playing in the bus was Cold Chisel's "Saturday Night". Why do I remember that? I don't know, but I do know that on the flight home one of the songs I heard on the in-flight music channel was Phil Collins "One More Night".

Music does this to you; it seeps into your life and produces memories like the smell of a madeleine biscuit in In Search of Lost Time. A song can remind you of a person; an album recalls a moment, a break-up a reunion.

For me 1985 was a year full of Madonna singing Crazy For You, George Michael being 1005 heterosexual while wearing fluorescent fingerless gloves in the video for "Wake Me Up Before you Go Go" - I played table tennis that year and I recall doing an impersonation of George one night while wearing my friends yellow fingerless gloves - the important thing is the eye movement right when you sing the lines "it's cold out there but it's warm in bed" (laughs were pretty easy at table tennis nights).

1985 was perhaps the only year where girls could write I love Morten on their pencil case; but A-ha gave them that ability. I was friends with a couple girls (who also played table tennis) who were absolutely devoted to Morten Harket and the other Norwegian lads, but who probably knew better and thus would react to my renaming him as Morten Carked-it with faux howls of disgust and a few laughs (yes, the laughs at table tennis were very easy to get).

But enough reminisces of my trying to charm girls with humour (they always go for the funny ones don't they?). 1985 was also for me the time I picked a band to be my band (no not U2, though they were there). Nope, for me the band to live and die by was Go West.

Yep.

Well look, in my defence "We Close Our Eyes" is a damn catchy song... and hell they did get voted Best New Band in the 1985 Countdown magazine readers poll.

And so while it was definitely my favourite song of the year, it's not the song I choose to be my song of the year for 1985. That pick goes to Aussie band, Do Re Mi, and their one hit (of sorts) Man Overboard.

There was something about the song that just got me. It was adult - the lyrics were pretty edgy for the mid-80s. The video was also intriguing. To this day I have no idea what the images have to do with the song, but it just got under my skin. The start of the video with the camera walking down a run down inner city street got the interest of me, the young country town boy. I wanted to know the street; I wanted to feel urban. I had reached a point in life where I knew without doubt my life was destined to occur outside the parameters of a little town. I wanted to live in a city teeming with every type of people.

I hadn't seen the video for well over a decade when a couple years ago I saw it on youtube, and it was amazing how the first minute of the video brought back the feelings I had back in 85. The fact that I now don't wish to live in "the big city" - or at least Sydney - and am comfortable in suburbia, rather than some bohemian inner city apartment is irrelevant. Music takes you straight back to where you were; and so I was taken back to 1985 to when I dreamt of being so many different things, that it was hard for me to watch the video without feeling some moments of regret, without sighing and wondering of what might have been had not a thousand separate moments that led me to where I am now not happened.

Oddly I had had a copy of the song for years, and while it always took me back to Year 9, it was the video that really brought the memories flashing through my brain. And for the first time I realised the scenes of the men drinking was taken on Anzac Day (at the 1:30min mark you can see a guy who is a Vietnam War veteran on account of the medals he has on his suit - still don't know what it has to do with the song).

The band also interested me. They and the song they were singing weren't the standard easy listening pop. These guys (especially Deborah Conway) looked 'arty' -they seemed like people who would laugh derisively at the fact I listened to AM radio; that I thought George Michael was straight; that I only had a mono speaker tape player to listen to music. They and their song were city; and I wanted to be them.

When I did get out of the country and got to go to uni in the city, I was lucky enough to be around when a few of my friends were going down to Elder Park where Deborah Conway was singing at a free concert (not sure why - it may have been Australia Day), and when she announced the start of this song, I have to say it felt pretty good to be able to feel like I was now one of those who could laugh derisively at country AM radio and mono speakers, if only because I was able to turn to my friends and say "I loved this song in Year 9", because let's be honest, it's a lot cooler than if I was making that statement after hearing "Wake Me Up Before You Go Go".

Flick of the Week: "When it comes to the affairs of the heart, even the greatest warriors can be a consummate idiots."

This week's flick of the week, which also doubles as "Oscar is Always Right (except when it's wrong) Part IV", takes us from Tomorrow Never Dies with Michelle Yeoh to the amazing martial arts film Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon.

The year 2000, it might surprise you to find, was a pretty good year for movies. The Oscars voters that year had to choose from Gladiator, Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon, Traffic, Chocolat and Erin Brockovich. Other big movies that year were Cast Away, The Contender, and The Perfect Storm.

It was a good year, especially when you compare it to this year's lot.

And I have to say I think the Academy made a great choice by picking Gladiator as Best Picture. It is an absolutely wonderful example of Hollywood doing well what Hollywood does well - it is a big epic blockbuster of a movie that was full of great acting, brilliant set pieces and a stack of geez-they-must-have-spent-a-tonne-of-money-making-this moments.

I loved it when I saw it, still love watching it on DVD, and I have no qualms about Russell Crowe winning Best Actor. Yes it's not his best work, but it was a great example of an actor carrying a film. He made it; no Crowe, no film. I don't think any other actor in Hollywood could have played the role - a guy who looks strong enough that he could be a gladiator, but also smart enough to be a general. He needed to be strong, but not buffed in a Brad Pitt/Eric Bana in a Troy kind of way.

Plus he needed to be able to win over the audience to the point they would have gone into battle with him - indeed, for him.

Crowe did this, and deserved his Oscar (should have been his second in a row...)

In any other year I would have been happy for the film to win the Best Picture and be viewed as the pinnacle of Hollywood. But in 2000 the greatest moment for me in a cinema occurred while spending two hours watching Michelle Yeoh and Yun-Fat Chow play out one of the great unrequited love stories in film history against a backdrop of the greatest action scenes you could wish in Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon.

Apparently, director Ang Lee wanted to make the ultimate martial arts movie. I probably haven't seen enough of them to judge whether he succeeded, but it certainly is the one by which all others will now be judged - and it also led to a number of excellent films from China/Taiwan such as Hero and House of Flying Daggers.

The story involves a great warrior - Li MU Bai, played by Yun-Fat Chow, who has decided to give up fighting. He asks his close friend (with whom he is obviously in love) Shu Lien (Michelle Yeoh) to give his sword (the Green Destiny) to their benefactor in Beijing. After doing so the sword is stolen by the young Jen Yu (played brilliantly by Ziyi Zhang in only her third role) who is the daughter of a high official, but who has secretly been trained in the ways of fighting by the female outlaw Jade Fox, whom Shu Lien has sworn to kill because she murdered his master.

Add to this the elements of love - Jen Yu is engaged to be married, but her true love is the outlaw Lo; and Li Mu Bai and Shu Lien are also achingly in love with each other, and yet... and yet.. and yet!!!! they seem unable to tell each other.

When I saw this film in the cinema I really knew nothing about it except that it was supposed to be amazing. It started well enough; I was enjoying the story, was quickly drawn to Michelle Yeoh's character. And then the Green Destiny is stolen, Shu Lien catches the thief and they begin to fight... and they begin to fly. Watching them fight by running up walls, floating across rooftops, and generally defying gravity while also clashing swords left my my mouth open in wonder. I recall turing to my wife and saying "this is brilliant". It's not often you know half way through a film that you want to watch it again, but that was the case wit this one.

The year earlier The Matrix had messed around with "bullet time", and the effects were great - but they were obvious special effects with lots of CGI. In this movie, when the characters fly through the air, or run across water, or stand on the flimsiest branches, the effect is dazzling and yet completely real.

No matter how good are computer graphics, you generally know when something is faked because the characters are doing things that cannot be done (or cannot be filmed - such as the massive CGI shots of Rome in Gladiator), and so instead of thinking it's real, your brain knows it is all a computer (part of the reason why the Star Wars prequels lack emotion - there's too much CGI, and your brain doesn't believe it regardless of how good it looks - and thus you don't care as much).

In this film everything seems real - even that which is magical, perhaps because it is so magical.

And while the fight scenes are jaw droopingly amazing, it is the two love stories in the film that keep you coming back. The final scene between Mu Bai and Shu Lien is up there with greatest of tragic moments in film. Their love is as good as any tyou will see on screen - Zhivago and Lara, Rick and Ilsa, Maria and Tony in West Side Story, or Laura Jesson and Dr Harvey in Brief Encounter - and like all good romances in films, the two are destined not to end together (that is the difference between romance dramas and romantic comedies - romcoms are all about requited love - if When Harry Met Sally... was a drama, Harry would run to tell Sally on New Years Eve that he loves her only to be hit by a car on the way, and then for her to go to the hospital to tell him she has consumption and will be dead in two weeks).

The film also has an intelligent undercurrent theme on the position of women in society. Shu Lien is a great warrior herself and is the love of Mu Bai's life, but even she has been denied learning the full secrets of the Wudan way of fighting. Jen Yu wants to free herself from her arranged marriage. She is taught by Jade Fox who killed Mu Bai's master because he would not teach her the Wudan secrets - and so she stole them, and seeks vengeance on the world of men.

It makes for an incredibly layered film, and would have been my choice to be the first non-English language film to win Best Picture (though now I think of it, there may be some other films that I will pick as Best Picture in earlier years - perhaps Wings of Desire, Z or Rashamon).

My only advice is do not for the love of God watch this film in the English dubbed version. Acting is all about use of voice, watch this with the real voices and read the subtitles.



***
2000
Best Actress: Julia Roberts, Erin Brockovich
Nominees: Juliete Binoche (Chocolat), Joan Allen (The Contender), Ellen Burstyn (Requiem for a Dream), Laura Linley (You Can Count on Me)

Should have won: Anyone else!

Geez. Can you believe all it took was for Julia Roberts to win an Oscar was to wear a push-up bra and slutty clothes? Talk about method acting! Julia freaking Roberts, Oscar winner...!? Now look, I don't want to diss Ms Roberts' acting prowess - she was great in Notting Hill playing a famous Hollywood actress. But hell, this is just about the worst choice ever in this category. I'm not even going to say why she was so bad in this - ok not bad, but you shouldn't get an Oscar just for just not embarrassing yourself.

Also if she hadn't won we all would have been spared her atrocious acceptance speech where she went on and on and on, thanked everyone in her life and anyone who had anything to do with the film except Erin Brockovich herslef, and she also expressed undying love for Benjamin Bratt...

Ok who to give it to then?

Juliette Binoch is delightful, but Chocolat is a desert (pardon the pun) and Best Actress should go to a main course.

Ellen Burstyn has been much lauded fro her role as the aging woman addicted to slimming pills, but to be honest I don't know if I think Requiem for a Dream is brilliant or a complete crock - and to be honest it's so damn depressing I know I'm not going to watch it again to find out.

So I'm going to give it to one of my favourite actresses, Joan Allen for her role as the Vice-Presidential contender with a past (or perhaps not) in The Contender. She is strong, sexy, smart and believable.

She also had to go up against two excellent actors in Jeff Bridges (playing the President) and Gary Oldman (a powerful Republican Senator)- and she had to be able to be more than just the woman in the room - she has to be able to match it with them, and in fact beat them - a tough ask, especially against Gary Oldman (who should have been nominated for Best Supporting Actor - Jeff Bridges also was deserving of a nomination for Best Actor).

So she gets my nod (I'm betting her speech would have been better than Roberts's as well).

The following scene shows her meeting with Oldman to discuss the dossier which contains information about Allen's supposed gang-bang while she was in college.

The Tennis Fan's Tennis Player

Last night the match of the tournament in the men's singles was played at the Australian Open. Roger Federer and Marat Safin played a third round match, and Federer won in three sets, 6-3, 6-2, 7-6.

The score line disguises the closeness of the match, and treats Safin with some disservice, for the nerves Federer showed in the third set tie break highlighted that he knows, as well as anyone, that a win against Safin is never a given, even if he is no longer at his peak.

After the match, Safin, in his press conference stated that it would he his last time at the Australian Open. Such an announcement is a big loss to tennis.

The reason why it is such a loss was highlighted in last night's match. It was a match full of expectation, and though the scoreline did not live up to it, the tennis certainly did. Federer and Safin traded blows from the back of the court, used deft volleys, deadly serves, and insanely gifted "you can't be serious" shots from unwinnable positions that resulted in winners.

It was a match that tennis lovers the world over would have delighted in watching, and it is sad that it may be the last time we see these two go head-to-head in a best of 5 sets.

Safin and Federer for the most part of this decade have been the two most gifted tennis players. The two players with whom commentators would use the adjective "genius" - most likely with Safin also using the word "flawed" or "tortured".

Nadal is amazing - easily the best clay court player ever. But he does it with power and strength. Safin and Federer have that x factor that just puts them in a different category. Maybe it's a certain grace around the court; more likely it's that ability to see the angles that others cannot; the courage to try the impossible because of a self belief that nothing is impossible for them.

Safin only won two Grand Slams - the 2000 US Open and the 2005 Australian Open. He was only 20 when he slaughtered Pete Sampras to win the 2000 US crown, and that he was only able to win one more is a perfect case of underachieving, bad luck, and injuries.

But there is little point bemoaning what might have been - for 2 Grand Slams is still pretty bloody good. More importantly throughout his entire career you have been able to say of Safin, "if he's at his best, he's better than anyone". It's why last night's match was so anticipated - with Safin anything is possible. It's why Federer was so glad to win the tie break - he knew if Safin wins one set, he might catch fire, and then it's hold onto your hats time.

Last night Safin played an incredible cross court drop volley off of a stinging Federer forehand. Safin was not in the perfect position, but his shot was perfect... or nearly so. It was called out, and the replay showed it was so by only a few millimeters. It would be tempting to call it a symbolic shot of his entire career.

Since he became number one, I think Federer has only worried about three players - Leyton Hewitt (who won the first of 7 matches against Roger), Nadal and Safin.

Last year Federer seemed annoyed about losing to Djokovic in the semi finals - as though Djokovic wasn't worthy, and that Federer had a feeling it was more to do with his own ability than Djokovic. Whereas when he loses to Nadal and Safin (and Hewitt when he was at his best) he knows the other player is a deserved winner (not to say that Federer is a poor loser against others). And I have to say I feel the same way. Last year Federer just played badly against Djokivic - shots he normally hits for winners, were missing, or were being hit too short. But when you think of Federer losing to Safin or Nadal, most times you have seen Federer playing sparkling tennis (think last year's Wimbledon final or the 2005 Australian Open semi), and getting beaten as opposed to beating himself.

So with Safin's departure tennis loses something very special - a player who brought out the best in Federer, and who always kept you thinking that today might be the day we see the impossible. And while he didn't always succeed, you know he would always attempt it.

And tennis also loses a great role model of the game. He was no thug; no arrogant boor - despite his many broken racquets. In his press conferences he comes across as intelligent and respectful of other players. He also had a personality that made watching him play so much fun. You knew any moment he might either explode and play great tennis, or just explode.

Here's what he said after his loss last night:

Q. What memories will you take away from this tournament?

MARAT SAFIN: I had some ups and downs here. One disappointment. Another great year. One final against Roger. And then one title I took here beating also Roger and Hewitt. So I've been playing some great tennis. So just the whole thing, the whole setup. The beautiful city, great people.
The crowd is always friendly. Go around in the city and they just love tennis. They live with tennis. They really enjoy it and appreciate what you are doing. That's what makes it special. It's really very sports‑people living here. It's always nice to come here every year, year after year. Unfortunately, I doubt it's going to ever happen again.

Q. That semifinal you played against Federer in 2005, people still talk about that as one of the great matches. How does that stick in your mind in terms of your career?

MARAT SAFIN: Well, just it was one of the greatest matches I ever played in my life probably. It's just for the fact that to play against Federer, against Roger, because he's the kind of player for my tennis, he's not really comfortable. He is not really comfortable tennis game for me.
I always struggled to play against him because he just doesn't give me any rhythm. He knows what to do in exact moment of the match. He knows what I'm going to do.
For me, to win that match in a semifinal was a huge thing. I never played any better. I wasn't any luckier in any other moments in the tennis court, so I could say that I was lucky; I played great tennis. He missed couple of shots that could change the match. He was very close to win it. He had a match point.

Q. You embraced Roger at the end. Was that partly because of what's happened at the tournament, or because you knew you were saying good‑bye as well?

MARAT SAFIN: Well, it's just we know each other for how many years? Since '94. We didn't play in the juniors, but we saw each other. We had some great matches. I was close a couple times. We grew up together. He started a little bit later than me.
I respect him as a tennis player, as a person. He's just very close ‑‑ let's put it this way: Very close colleague of mine.

Q. You also say he's the best you ever faced?

MARAT SAFIN: Probably, yeah. He's the most complete tennis player in the history of tennis, that's for sure. With all due respects to Agassi and Sampras and the rest of the gang.
But I never felt so uncomfortable against any of the players before.

Q. What would it take to change your mind about walking away from tennis?

MARAT SAFIN: Nothing. I've been already too many years. I want to change and do something else. I'm ready for that. It's been a nice trip. It's enough.

Q. Do you know what that something else is?

MARAT SAFIN: Yeah, but I'll keep it to myself for the moment. I would love to do that. I'm ready.

Sounds pretty content; and so should tennis lovers be as well. It was a nice trip he gave us.