Saturday, August 28, 2010

Communication breakdown

Just a quick note that I write from an computer terminal in a shopping centre.

As anticipated moving house has caused some issues re internet (and the phone). Suffice to say I have no idea when I'll be back online and blogging.

I of course am taking this enforced layoff from news and blogging in my stride (this is code for, I am pretty much bouncing off the walls and in constant danger of repeatedly banging my head against said walls).

Hopefully I'll be back soon.

Until then, I'll just say how nice it has been of The Australian to look out for the interests of the three independents - especially Rob Oakeshott - by giving them advice on who to choose.

That newspaper is all heart.


Chris Grealy said...

And Abbott has divined that more electors would prefer the Mad Monk as PM to Gillard. Perhaps the FSM has appeared to him in a vision

Anonymous said...

Hope you get online soon. I'm suffering from withdrawal symptoms! I'll stop pointlessly checking for updates every few hours.

When this is all over I hope that someone in the ALP runs a strategy session and with any luck gets critically sympathetic people like you to advise them.

Hope JG does well at the Press Club on Tuesday (and manages to avoid words such as forward, moving, we will, etc.) She needs to stake her claim for PM more firmly, continue to use her incumbency as leverage, and demonstrate how her government will deal with the changed circumstances.

lyn said...

Hi Grog

Thankyou for you note, good to hear from you, and pleased everything is ok. Hope you & your wife are managing ok.

I miss your pieces heaps, hope you are back very soon. Also hope the move goes ok, a lot of work isn't it, makes one wonder why we have so much stuff.

Yes the Murdoch papers are still trying so hard, well they didn't get Abbott in on the 21st.

Tim Dunlop says be prepared for the onslaught.


Pip said...

Hope you can find your kettle and the coffee and a few mugs. Laurie Oakes has a really shoddy piece about how the Independents are revelling in their relevence. He can be a seriously catty bugger at times. Makes one wonder how relevent he is these days. Nuisance yes, relevent, aah nup.

Anonymous said...

Where am I? What century is this? Not only is the DLP back in the Parliament... The Australian is telling us - in its editorial no less - that "the Greens represent a threat to cohesion just as did the communists in the 1950s". Yes! It really does say that! With Bob Katter playing the role of Black Jack McEwan this is all getting very strange.

Rowan said...

I wonder if the independents realise that if they do pick Labor over the Coalition that the relentless media savaging Labor has received from the Murdoch press will switch to them. As we can see, it's already started.

On the other hand, the Coalition's primary vote has barely increased from the landslide defeat of 2007, so maybe the press doesn't have as much power as I feared.

Cantbeeffed said...

My money is on a coalition government. I think the independents, both from a policy and a constituency point of view, will sit more comfortable with the Liberal party. And to be, I don't think that's a bad outcome for several reasons:

1. Labor needs the kick in the head to realise they screwed up so badly it's unbelievable. If Labor forms government, the pressure for them to take a long hard look at themselves will abate significantly. If they lose government after one term, they can engage in the reform they need and come back refreshed for the next election.

2. The Liberals will be the ones forced to compromise to get their legislation through. From July next year, the situation will be much more uncomfortable for a Liberal than a Labor government. Added to this is the fact that the Libs were strong about not what they were going to do but what they weren't going to do.

On that point, they will be making government policy without having a clear mandate for it. Also, the independents are likely to push them to concede on their big Nos (boats, taxes a debt) due to the need to spend more to keep the independents on side.

With someone other than Abbott in power, the Liberals would be able to handle that with aplomb, but I think Tony Abbott will really struggle. Even if he behaves himself impeccable externally, internally he'll be hating every moment of it. Which leads me to...

3. I think that whoever forms government is on a hiding to hell. It will come to either abandoning core policy positions (not a winner) or calling an early election (again, not likely to be a winner). It partly depends on who behaves like the bigger ratbag and which side the media demonises the most - the government or the independents.

Added into this mix is how the Greens behave now that there is more focus on them, especially with a lower house rep. The media rarely focus on anything in the Senate, the Reps is where is it. The Greens have the most to win or lose out of this situation. They have some very shrewd, pragmatic players in their midst, and they also have some nutters in the Senate. The downside of more Senators is the harder job of herding all those cats. Party unity is, like with the Democrats, the thing that is most likely to kill the Greens, as they will splinter on personal ideology more readily than the majors.

Anonymous said...

If Abbott is the pm then from July 2011 the Senate will be the issue.
Getting legislation through will require negotiating skills yet to be seen.
This will make a 3 year next election pledge an interesting matter. How he will deal with a slowing economy will be revealing.
The alternative is to let Gillard continue as PM and have her deal with the double dip recession that will happen in Europe and USA.


L said...

Cantbeeffed, I agree with your points 2 and 3 but 1 leaves me worried that instead of taking the lesson they need to take from the election disaster, Labor will just say "looks like aiming every policy, slogan and talking point at the stupidest 20% of voters didn't work - we need to concentrate out efforts on the stupidest 10%". Sadly I can see this happening.

Cantbeeffed said...

L, all I can say is, if Labor were to take that approach, they would deserve to get pulverised into oblivion.

Anonymous said...

Grog where are you? $11 billion black hole and you're still offline.

The Liberals are not fit to govern after this outrageous episode.