Monday, February 9, 2009

Newspoll: ALP 58-LNP 42

On a day when politics didn't seem to matter much, The Australian released its latest newspoll.

It revealed that the voters seem to have not particularly liked Malcolm Turnbull's opposition to the stimulus package. The ALP increased its two party preferred from 54% to 58%, the LNP went down from a glorious 'high' of 46% to 42%. This was no shock (though to be honest I was half expecting a bit more narrower a result). My favourite analysis of this poll is by Dennis Shanahan (of course) who suggests that Malcolm Turnbull is "happy" with the result.

Apparently according to Dennis: "The Liberals have been encouraged by enthusiastic responses from supporters." (yes those ones who were going to vote for them anyway), and that "Even some MPs who were against opposing the stimulus package believe Turnbull's position has generated a positive reaction from Liberals who want the Coalition to fight the Government."

Positive reaction? That would be the same reaction that saw Turnbull on dis-satisfaction rating go from 31% to 38% (his worst result ever)? Or would that be the reaction that has seen 63% of voters believing the Government is doing a good job of managing the economy (and 31% of LNP voters thought this as well).

When 31% of your own voters think the other side is doing a good job, that pretty much means the only people left supporting you are those who would often use the phrases "a long cold day in Hell" "vote for Labor" ,"It'll be" and "before I will" in sentences.

Perhaps the Liberals are getting all warm and fuzzy about the fact that 52% of voters do not believe the Liberal Party would have produced a better stimulus package.

Yes, Shanahan thinks this is good for the Liberals:

But there seem to be some undercurrents of doubt about the depth of government debt.

It's clear that Coalition voters - the voters Turnbull has to win back - are the group who most think Kevin Rudd is doing a bad job and overwhelmingly believe the Coalition could do better.

As well, the over-50s, including pensioners and self-funded retirees, are the least supportive of Labor and the most against the stimulus package.

Undercurrents? Dennis please, try a bit harder, and give us some proof, or is the fact that 50% of those over the age of 50 did not believe the Liberals would have devised a better stimulus evidence of happy times for Turnbull?

And yes, Dennis Shanahan, political editor of The Australian really did write:
"Coalition voters are the group who most think Kevin Rudd is doing a bad job"

In Dennis' next scoop he will point out that that mothers-in-law tend to support their daughters when it comes to arguments between husbands and wives.

Shanahan ends with this:

Finally, there is no clear message that most of the $12 billion in giveaways is going to be spent fast.

Except the Newspoll actually asked voters what they were going to do with the money. Only 20% said they would spend none of it (ie save it all). 63% said they would either spend all or at least half of it. 63%, sounds pretty clear to me - and coincidentally only 1% more than the percentage who think Kevin Rudd is a better PM than Turnbull. But then perhaps that is the figure Turnbull is most happy about and I know nothing.

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