Tuesday, March 10, 2009

Newspoll: ALP 56-LNP 44

Another fortnight, another Newspoll, another ALP win.

Today's result saw the ALP fall back from 58-42 to 56-46. Hardly cause for jubilation among the Liberal Party ranks, though they may take some solace from Channel 7 political reporter Mark Reilly's assessment on newsradio this morning that the opposition is "still in the game" - I guess Reilly is ignoring the fact that 56% represent a 4% swing to the ALP compared to the last election...

But still the main thrust of the poll was the question asking who was preferred opposition leader. 53% went for Peter Costello, and only 40% went for Malcolm Turnbull.

When asked who was preferred PM: Rudd, Costello or Turnbull? Rudd won 54% to Costello's 26% and Turnbull's 14%.

When removing Costello from the equation, Rudd was preferred PM by a gap of 61% to 21%.

So obviously this fuelled talk about Turnbull's leadership being in danger and Costello being on the rise etc etc etc.

It's a pity they didn't ask those polled if Costello becoming leader would change their vote, because at the moment the ALP are way out in front, and have been for 2 1/2 years.

But look it's all irrelevant. Any talk of Costello becoming leader and everything being great for the Liberal Party is all working on the proviso that Turnbull goes quietly. I can't see it happening. All I can see is two camps in the party who are divided and squabbling over who gets to lead the party to a loss at the next election.

Turnbull and Costello at the moment are like two teenagers who have just crashed Dad's car, and instead of trying to work out what they are going to say to Dad when he finds out, are instead arguing over who gets to drive the banged up car home (in between arguing over whose fault the crash was in the first place). Though given Costello has never taken over the driver's seat even when offered, perhaps this analogy is not quite right!
I wasn't able to watch QT today, but I think I know how it went.

After hearing that the Liberal and National parties couldn't work out what their position was on the new IR legislation, and also reading that a certain Member for Higgins was involved in an "unruly" party room discussion on the matter, and that at one point: a frustrated Mr Turnbull asked Mr Costello a series of questions in the meeting and noted that he had asked the former treasurer to join the front bench, but had been refused, I think I can say that QT would have involved a lot of Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard pointing out what an absolute rabble exists on the opposition benches.

And so it will be for quite a while I suspect.

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