Back on September 1, after John McCain chose Sarah Palin as his running mate I declared Barrack Obama the winner of the US election.
Within a week of my making that prediction, McCain's polling went up and the Daily Gallup poll had him leading at one stage 49% to 44%.
I then wrote that the Democrats had to hold their nerve and keep raising the stakes, because in poker sooner or later you have to show your hand, and we would see if the Republicans were holding an Ace, or if it was all a bluff.
Well it was a bluff. A big, unsubtle bluff.
And it turns out the Democrats didn't raise the stakes, the stakes got bigger all on their own. The financial crisis had all of America thinking it's 1929, and the more they looked at Sarah Palin; the more they heard her speak in interviews, the less they liked what they saw. In fact the more scared they seemed to be.
Obama's polling has stayed rock solid. At one point he was leading the Gallup Poll 50% to 44%. It's now at a more reasonable 48% to 45%.
Palin is now considered what I thought she was when I first looked at her back at the start of the month - an embarrassment. It was all fine and dandy when she was at the Convention and nothing was actually real. But when the economy seems to be going to hell in a hand basket, you want someone who at least seems like they grasp the issues. Palin doesn't - she doesn't understand the issues, and she doesn't even seem like she could understand them.
The big reason I think Palin has become a negative factor is that the problems are domestic. Had the main concern been foreign; well she would've been fine - she sounded tough on those damn Iranians and Russkies. She is obviously an America first; the entire rest of the world second kind of politician that Americans love. And anyway, you would expect the Generals would be able to give her some advice should she need to go to battle.
But messing around with the economy? That ain't fun. That actually requires thinkin'. And Palin wasn't brought onto the campaign for thinkin' and showing off her book learnin'; nope she was brought on to appease the far-right wing of the Republican Party with her guns and small-town ways, and also to give McCain's tired image some oomph. It was the ultimate short term solution for a long term problem.
However, now things are really turning against her. She had an interview with Katie Couric on CBS News. It was bad. Here's a snippet with CNN commentator Jack Cafferty giving his views on her performance.
Now Cafferty is not a friend of Republicans - he has been known to criticise Democrats for not being tough enough against Bush's Iraq War policy. But here's conservative commentator, Kathleen Parker:
Palin's recent interviews with Charles Gibson, Sean Hannity and now Katie Couric have all revealed an attractive, earnest, confident candidate. Who Is Clearly Out Of Her League.
No one hates saying that more than I do. Like so many women, I've been pulling for Palin, wishing her the best, hoping she will perform brilliantly. I've also noticed that I watch her interviews with the held breath of an anxious parent, my finger poised over the mute button in case it gets too painful. Unfortunately, it often does. My cringe reflex is exhausted.
But look, that's just talking heads putting forth their opinions; let's let Palin persuade you of her credentials, the ones that she excels in - yep foreign policy:
Yep; a heart beat away from holding the most powerful office in the world. Oh well, I guess she can always try the old pitbull and lipstick line again. That's always good for a laugh...