After 15 rounds, in the past, every side would have played every other side. That is not the case anymore – Brisbane for example hasn’t played Fremantle, but has played Geelong twice (yeah, that sounds fair).
Collingwood with games against Richmond, Sydney, Hawks and Carlton coming up, should win at least 2 of those to get the 12 wins and percentage that’ll get them home.
The Bulldogs have the easy Freo and West Coast to get them to 12.
Brisbane have Freo, Port, Kangaroos and Sydney to get 3 wins to get to 12, or the tougher tasks of Collingwood, Essendon and Bulldogs.
Adelaide have Port, Hawks, West Coast and Carlton – 2 of those gets them to 12, but they also have the Saints, Geelong and Collingwood.
Essendon need 5 wins. They have the easy Richmond. They also play West Coast and Freo, but both are at Subiaco. The other 4 games are Bulldogs, Brisbane, Saints and Hawks.
Carlton play Sydney, Kangaroos, Port and Melbourne. They may need to win all 4, because the other three are Collingwood, Geelong and Adelaide.
Hawthorn need 5 wins to get to 12. They only have one easy game – Richmond. The rest are Collingwood, Geelong, Port (AAMI), Saints, Adelaide and Essendon. They’ll need to win 4 of those, and boost their percentage. Can’t see it.
Port also need 5 wins. They play West Coast, Freo and North. If they get those 3 they’ll still need 2 from Adelaide, Hawks, Carlton and Brisbane.